■ Zhang Xiaohe / text

"Lending year end, deposit at". However in 2012, this habit of commercial banks, but with the two months before the credit crunch has been broken.
   From the central bank data, January new credit only 738000000000 yuan. The February data also is not optimistic, many countries including China, institutions have forecast new lending in February up to more than 700000000000 yuan. In the face of widespread credit less worry, though NPC and CPPCC on industrial and Commercial Bank of China Governor Yang Kaisheng appease called "four before February new credit, is not reduced, and an increase of 20000000000 Yuan", but the voice did not fall, the market will again that "four for the first four days of March new loans in negative growth of about 30000000000 yuan," the news.
   This is clearly beyond the market expectations. Because the central bank announced in early 2012 "M2 expects growth of 14%" generalized monetary goal, this growth will correspond to about 8 trillion yuan of new loans.
   Taking into account all walks of life generally in the spring to increase production and banking "early lending, early benefit" mentality, according to the China Banking Regulatory Commission formulated the "3322" quarter on the rhythm (i.e. one quarter of new credit cannot exceed the annual growth rate of 30%, behind the quarter and so on), the market had expected a quarter scale generally think, at least at 2.4 yuan.
     What is the reason for the difference between reality and expectations? Because of the economic downturn is causing the problem of credit demand, or because the central bank to maintain tight monetary supply limits the ability of bank lending? Between the supply and demand, the industry think of not only difficult to unity, but differences.
   As the root causes of the differences, the cause is due to the parties Each sticks to his own view. data market is divergence.
   That is the supply side problems point of view, the current bank deposit growth, foreign exchange reserves increased less, coupled with the regulatory index limitation faced on credit is still not relaxed and regulators of off balance sheet credit to more stringent restrictions, these are great extent limit banks' ability to lend.
   Support data include: January M2 growth rate of only 12.4%, not only lower than the same period last year, far below the growth target of 14% this year M2; 2 at the end of the month, Treasury Deposits bidding interest rates as high as 6.8%, which reflected from the side of commercial banks to deposit hunger is not less than 2011. Banks to meet liquidity supervision index repeatedly staged deposit war. At the same time, in October last year, China's foreign exchange reserves will reduce the monthly, which in December foreign exchange net decrease of more than 100 billion yuan. Although this year January increased, but the slowdown in the growth of the situation did not change, coupled with the open market due to increased funding, many ideas that 75% of the loan to deposit ratio control target has been difficult to sustain.
   But on the contrary data also shows that the interbank liquidity relatively loose. Among these, the most prominent contradiction is the price of money is loose.
   The most let industry is baffled, reflect the degree of tightness of folk funds bill discount rates in February continued to show relatively large decline.
   The morning of March 8th, the inter-bank 7 day repurchase rate down to 3% the following, this is the decline in the interest rate for the tenth consecutive trading day. Similar to the money market interest rates and the short end of 2011 3, April levels. This means that the relatively loose liquidity among banks.
   At the same time, since the new year, the market continued to spread the message reduce the financing cost, real mortgage interest rates began to decline, not only the part of the bank's first mortgage interest rates began to return to the benchmark interest rate, or even 10 percent off, even two anteroom loan also began to fall back to 1.1 times the benchmark interest rate. At the same time, some enterprises also said, the public credit interest rates began to decline slightly.
   This is significantly different from years ago, bank credit tight "to change the price of" approach, the most logical idea is: banks in access to funds at the same time, they found that the lack of market demand, but the volume or price qi.
   Based on this, the other part is the insistence of opinion market downturn, investment demand led to the current credit growth, rather than a shortage of credit supply.
   A report by the center for financial research has just released the thought, the weak external demand, the enterprise profit is expected to decline, the real estate development loans and loan financing platform is restricted, housing turnover murky situation, personal loan demand is also difficult to get better. And, the Spring Festival factors also led to many companies delayed start, market financing demand is reduced.
   Some viewpoints said, out of the economic downturn worries, some enterprises especially large enterprises are increasing wait-and-see mood, began to reduce the investment rate, and that this is an important factor in the credit slowdown. But at the same time, the financing difficulty has more, also become the focus in this year's NPC and CPPCC.
   All phenomena and data are deviated from unity, credit for this is refuted puzzle means, both the dissident are difficult to convince each other. But from another angle, and no matter what kind of reason prevailed, but the change from last year, we can only say that the factors restricting credit growth, are supplied by unilateral constraint past into it from both sides of supply and demand constraints.
   For the future, the key point is how to achieve this year "steady growth", if the current situation continues, believe that fine-tuning preset the future policies will come soon.