The two anteroom loan loosening, where house price trend?

The two anteroom loan loosening, where house price trend?
When ice

(a)

   Recently, the property market has undergone a series of things, all kinds of people the stage, performing more, for this too lazy to even the makeup of actors who have little interest in the. But one thing we all see: many two or three line city house prices are on the rise, first-tier cities just shrinking trading volume and price has not dropped significantly.
   Even so, some officials have begun such as playing chicken frogs, excited to that: the property market regulation has achieved initial results.
   For the regulation of real estate, developers have to do. They are the real boss this huge economy. Have a look at some developers:"Hurry down, otherwise it will more be out of order policy,We still need to give the government a face".
   "Need to give the government a face", this is a kind of generous, width, height, slope, brightness and grace!
   Only"Need to give the government a face"Results, is not difficult to imagine. For example, the original plans to sell 20000 of the market, price 25000, then twenty percent off, was still 20000, looks down 20%, real estate developers to the government face, their interests also does not have what loss. Of course, the interests of the government also does not have what loss, but the previous high put to sale out. Moreover, the local government took control of the neutral prices, low prices from the hands of ordinary people of land requisition, reserve, like the broody hen quiet and sweet wait for the appreciation of the day.
   In fact, from the beginning of the regulation, the relevant departments began to leave yourself a way. The most typical is not allowed to high prices listed transactions. Beijing, Shanghai media also disclosed the results of the survey, of course, the relevant departments and then statement (from benefit analysis point of view, in fact, is to confirm rumours). Low prices in number, what is the true meaning?
   Have a look again bank. At the end of 6, two suites loan loose reports began to appear. On the measures that policy, the bank will be dry, and dry, more clever. In the regulation of the property market in the sound, the bank "looting", strictly implement the dynamic, different management policies of individual housing loans, loans for the purchase of the second set of housing, the first payment ratio of not less than 50%, the loan interest rate of not less than 1.1 times the benchmark interest rate, payment of the N suite.
   The two anteroom loan in fact loose, actually sent a clear signal of a regulation failed.
   Then, the property market regulation may cause reported. The three departments are hand in hand, like innocent children sing nursery rhymes attitude, take mincing steps to tell the public: rumours are false, regulation and control will continue to.
   Unfortunately, from the withered face can not find any child.
   Then, to create public opinion, moreover, the debut of the are some influential people. Such reports can be seen everywhere. Such as: July 13th, former vice chairman of the National People's Congress, long famous performance artist Mr. Cheng Siwei said in an interview with the media:"Prices can not drop more than 25% ";" home prices fell by more than 25%, otherwise it is not good for anyone".
   This intermediate, real estate developers have started to jump on the bandwagon. "The river becomes warm in spring duck prophet, developers have a real sense of duck, of course, they took the body buried hard feelings of water temperature in the water not corrupt, while helping others secretly as their duck.
   When developers to set his ass when rob, they like a group of hungry She-Wolf to stand in a new starting line -- at least so they feel.
   Folk attitude in the earliest differentiation -- investors off. This is a big victory for developers.
   The real estate industry, in the policy under the wings and, after years of operation and development, has developed a powerful group of forces. You are not required to control prices? Good, then the stock market down, the shareholders are separated from the support of market regulation in the camp.
   Vested interest group is like this, so do.

Two.

   Let us have a look again this process:
   The property market regulation with intensive launched in April 14, 2010, this day, the provisions of the State Council executive meetingThe first set on the purchase of housing and Taoxing construction area of 90 square meters family, the proportion of loans for the first payment shall not be less than 30%; on loans to buy second homes, the proportion of loans for the first payment shall not be less than 50%, lending rates may not be lower than the benchmark interest rate 1.1 times; on loans to buy housing and above the third set, greatly improve the proportion of down payment and interest rates.
   The second day (April 15th),The Ministry of land and resources released "2010 housing land supply plan", to increase affordable housing land supply. Not only affordable housing, shanty towns, small and medium-sized apartment layout of ordinary commercial housing land supply ratio reached 77%, far exceeding the target of 70%, and the total supply of land has increased significantly to 180000 hectares of land supply in 2009, more than 2 times higher than.
   Third days (April 16th, Friday),The China Banking Regulatory Commission issued a notice requiring commercial banks to strictly enforce the new mortgage rules: relax "to the roots", "monetary tightening".
    The same day, pay attention to the very important day. This day: stock index futures listed. Provides greater force to suppress the stock market.
   Fourth days (April 17th, Saturday),Upgrade policy, "new country ten" heavy attack. The State Council promulgated the "on Resolutely Curbing notice" parts of the city house prices rising fast, new content: commercial housing prices are too high, prices rise too fast, supply areas, commercial banks according to risk status, to suspend payment of the purchase of third and above housing loan; provide more than 1 year local tax certificate or social insurance contributions that non residents to purchase housing loans to cannot suspend payment. "new country ten" property deal, there are 5 kinds of a total of 10. Known as "the history of efforts in one of the biggest market regulation".
   "The history of efforts in one of the biggest property control" in the stock index futures hang after officially launched, suppression strength on the stock market is obviously of great.
   Fifth days (April 18th, Sunday), housing consumption tax news.Several media reports, Chongqing Gaodangfang special consumption tax by the central approval. National tax departments are formulating the "Provisional Regulations on housing consumption tax".
   Sixth days (April 19th, Monday), pre-sale deal.Consistent tendency to emphasize the "housing market forces" and urban construction department issued "on the further strengthening of the perfection of the commercial housing pre-sale system concerning the supervision of the real estate market". Notification requirements, failure to obtain pre-sale commercial housing permits, shall not conduct any form of pre sales.
   The April 19th stock market crash, Chinese (related to stock index futures on stock market of Professor Lang Xianping and I talk about the "financial Lang eye" too), the Shanghai Composite Index fell 150 points, the real estate finance plunged more than 7%, down more than 6%, iron and steel, nonferrous all fell.
    Real estate in the powerful faction can directly affect the real estate, is the financial, steel weights of the three plate, the three plate down, is almost certainly the overall stock market panic crash. In the public situation of high prices Voices of discontent. Next, with the stock market down so that investors have painfully discovered: high price bubble first need to use their blood extrusion, forcing them to raise the flag of the final on the facade of the high prices, in the face of high prices to reduce government under the pressure of public opinion.
    The real estate field strong powerful interests costs up, not only kidnapped China economy, investors also kidnapped, kidnapping people. Money effect on the stock market will eventually put the people's hard-earned money out into the real estate field! The field of real estate speculators to the public the subtext is: buy a house is the most secure value appreciation! This is their most happy -- a perfect ending.
   And with the relevant departments, is also very clever.
   In May 15th, 16 on the news, development and Reform Commission is currently led the drafting of a "tougher" on the property market regulation and control policy of the new file, the scope and strength will be greater than the just published shortly before the "country of ten". The Shanghai Composite Index fell 136.7 points, or up to 5.07%. Estate, again led by the financial. Real estate shares nearly 40 stocks limit. The bad result of the stock market decline is inevitable, but such malicious short the stock market, the authority obviously should be involved in the investigation. But authorities completely indifferent.
    The people suffering in the sound, the relevant departments denied "more severe" policy introduced in time. Many people at the time, the news of the passing, but neglected: the oboe tricks, actually makes more stringent regulation policy before being planned! Vested interest group's understanding, even if the couple said of boys and girls, also elusive. Who is intentionally leaked?
   During the real estate regulation, China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index fell, fell in May to 53.9 in June, down to 52.1. And here, Premier Wen has been clear about economy double dip, stressed the need to prevent the negative effects of the superimposed policies, reiterated that the proactive fiscal policy and moderately loose monetary policy.
   Then, the news broadcast for several days no mention of market regulation. Since then things need not waste words.
   Wrote here, I can not help but think of Mr. Bai Yansong's a feeling:"I think after the three imperial estate came yesterday, I felt a sense of relief, why easily? In fact, when in Beijing or Shanghai, or is it, on average, the vast majority of China people, living in the city people, when house prices more than fifteen thousand, in fact, does not rise up with you, never mind, I'm afraid not to focus attention, you said thirty thousand up to forty thousand what is the difference, anyway, can not afford to buy."

Three.

   On the attitude of the property market, should be derived from a long-term planning, the planning must be able to implement the. Large scale housing security policy after the launch, I asked a local official, they will according to the policy of actively to build low-income housing. He answered very sure, not.The reason is: the construction of affordable housing, the central subsidies 200 yuan per square meter or so, the rest of the money is out of place, but did not place so much money.
   This is the reality.
   I'm from 10 years ago learned through practical investigation, interview, be close to the real information. In the Southwest drought occurred after long investigation conclusion, at my own expense to do, is also based on this idea. As a citizen, should be for the country to will and responsibility. Unfortunately, promote the performance evaluation mechanism and corrupt power with GDP as the standard of the people's livelihood, officials of the responsibility, the overall view, national interests and so on, in the increasingly degradation, the degradation because of family and wealth transfer to foreign countries and become more explicit.
   Naked official is a big hidden danger Chinese economic safety is the most important. In the new period, especially.
   Policy can not be like small retail investors, chasing Shadie, hear the wind is the rain, but we can't not painfully discovered, some of our policies, in the manufacture of super small retail investors mentality, when small egg these policies like a just drilled shells with fools look to the strange world, an outcrop will by various interest groups bluffed confused and disoriented, due to the policy is more and more difficult to implement.
   Many officials talk about the house, sincere feelings, as if they were grown from the snack house milk. Some people talk about real estate, he spoke movingly about the real estate on the 60 related industries, the employment help, but say nothing, rely on real estate are in fact more industries shrink and more job losses at the cost of resources, in other words, strongly tilted towards real estate industry results, is more industries atrophy and more unemployment. Resources are limited, the limited resources from more efficient industry, flow to the lack of technical content but full of huge profits in real estate, in fact means that a large number of enterprises are more promising in the industry (especially private) due to the collapse of resource allocation by missing, not only leads to a decrease in employment, resulting in the whole country have a net loss, but also exacerbated the corruption, and the entire economy to the point of no return.
   The most simple common sense economics, in China, became a senior expert, deceiving the people kept woman economist tool.
   "Chinese Statistical Yearbook" released data show: 1998 to 2006, investment in fixed assets in the towns, including 31 industry categories of manufacturing industry categories of fixed assets investment is 9147700000000, the real estate category (the category only a real estate industry) 91537 trillion of investment, real estate investment even than the manufacturing industry investment in fixed assets more than 31 industry!
   From 2007 up to now, the situation becomes more serious.The tilt of resources of the real estate industry, has been incapable of further increase.
    In fact, by the end of 2008 active rescues the house price is a big mistake, this error is reflected not only in the people's livelihood damage (as a livelihood for people, this point is always the deepest heart pain!) , more important is, he made us this huge economy, into a more dangerous situation. If you did not save the property market, prices naturally fell, just squeeze the bubble, the adjustment of economic structure, to solve the problem of excess production opportunity. As for the impact on the 60 industry, as I've already said, the time of low prices than high prices to pull the development of the 60 industry, because of the low prices may stimulate more real demand! Moreover, prices fell in the process, the government can pull the development of relevant industries by increasing the supply of low-income housing, but should not again invite wolves into the house, let the people's livelihood industry into a bloodsucker feast.
   According to the China iron and Steel Industry Association released data, at the end of 5, the national 26 main steel market five kinds of steel social inventory amount to 15780000 tons, and at the end of 2008 6, the inventory is 2869000 tons, in 2009 June, this figure is 8960000 tons. That is to say,At present, the iron and steel stocks is 5.5 times the same period in 2008, is 1.8 times the same period in 2009. Public reporting -- this section from the media.
    Overcapacity is serious, has reached a degree of be struck dumb. In the new period, this situation will make China have enemies in front and rear, troubled. I wrote that in March, May will be the euro sniper battle of the month, on 7 June new period conversion, when all one one to become a reality, Chinese ready? Even, can understand what is being said the new cycle of economic prospects for the Chinese?
   Moreover, the steel car revitalization planning to launch, just in the most critical moment China negotiations with iron ore giant, leading to Chinese defeat in the negotiations, has calculated the economist, which caused to the Chinese nation to $700000000000.
   Chinese prices high, far more than the developed countries USA, this point is no longer news, I personally went to the USA and Central American countries the results of the survey, has deepened my understanding of this situation worries. In fact, some of the immigrants have intermediary advertising:Shanghai buy a house in Beijing, as immigrants to Canada, America, Australia and other countries to buy a better house, better security (effect).
   High prices are being exacerbated the outward transfer of wealth, the high technology talent and middle-class emigration pace. This phenomenon of our suffering people what it means, is self-evident.
    Is to be known as the property market regulation, the history of the most severe once the end (even quietly ended), prices will inevitably rise again -- surging currency, is the most direct push. In does not inhibit the currency desire, without breaking the strong real estate monopoly the two premises, any control measures are difficult to really affect the Chinese prices. Chinese prices, already completely toward the road of no return, until the population changes and market factors truly play its role, bring prices back to it should be in the position -- but this nation can afford much pain?
   In July 2nd, I wrote in "commodity and synchronization at $jump behind the interests of big shift" in:"Since ancient times, there is one economy bubble is completed in the drop channel self squeeze in? So, what does this mean?"The regulation of mortality, and dance with the new cycle, do everything is fate? If it is, is the human. What kind of choice, will face what kind of outcome. This is the law.
   For people, not for any administrative intervention prices move, with any hope.
   For the harm of high prices, make some good research should the government really!
    Near stage Activities Notice two:
    A: Guqin performance.The night of August 7, 2010, I hosted a famous contemporary Guqin performer, Central Conservatory of Music China Guqin master tutor Professor Zhao Jiazhen Guqin concert at the Beijing concert hall, Chinese famous Pipa virtuoso Wu Yuxia, famous erhu virtuoso Song Fei, famous percussion performer Mr. Li Congnong starred friendship. I receive a teacher life playing guqin music "the creak of an oar".
   In Professor Zhao Jiazhen's blog:Http://zhaoguqin.blog.sohu.com/153724978.html