This year USA subprime risk outbreak, leading to sharp shock America and world leading markets, a time of paranoia, state of extreme nervousness., central banks have to note the huge intervention.

   Subprime mortgages, refers to the credit status of poor people without the mortgage even does not need to pay the first payment will be in the bank's housing loan. The bank will be the real estate credit rating by Rating firm, securities sold to investors, the formation of subordinated debt. The subordinated debt and can form a bond derivatives. Subordinated debt holders of subordinated debt and can be mortgaged to the bank, loans, buy subordinated debt, scale has been enlarged. The theory of the size of the bond derivatives market is equivalent to three times the value of global bond. This is equivalent to each the average bond was re sale three. So there is a Wind sways grass., it will affect the situation as a whole. American subprime crisis is caused by common American lending institutions, hedge funds, credit rating agencies and some didn't pay enough capacity when the "housing slave" people.

   America to get rid of the new economy bubble burst and the 911 crisis, slashing interest rates, led directly to America prices continued to rise. While the lending institutions to expand business and obtain more profits, to some credit conditions, and even do not have repayment ability prove them interest rates higher than the normal interest rate mortgage loans. Credit Suisse said Tao Dong,Methods according to the times America application is commonly used in"2-18"System, namely time two years ago by is charged in accordance with a fixed interest rate, the future18Years is charged in accordance with the floating rate. It started when the loan repayment pressure is very small. Wait until after a certain time, repayment pressure will increase.A large income is not stable or lower income, no reliable repayment ability of the people expected house prices will continue to rise, pay expectations of rising house prices far exceed the interest income. So a lot of the financial situation is not good Americans borrow to buy houses.

   But the situation has changed fundamentally: one is USA prices pudie. According to the results of a joint investigation Reuters and America University of Michigan released the latest housing owners, nearly 1/4 American said the property appears in the past year depreciation. This is since 1992 American appeared the most severe prices Pudie situation; two is the benchmark interest rate American has from the lowest 1% soared to the 5.25% level.

   According to Xie Guozhong introduction: American personal loans, personal commitment is limited liability, if the person can not repay their bank loans, banks can only recover housing. For many financial situation is not good American "housing slave", when the real estate appreciation is expected to break, mortgage payments increase difficult to continue, stop owing on the loan seems to be a choice of benefit maximization. The fourth quarter of 2006, the subprime mortgage default rate reached 14.44%, this year first quarter increased to .

   Although the main countries of the world's central banks pumped hundreds of billions of dollars into the banking system, the main stock index rebounded temporarily. But because of USA subprime loans will increase dramatically in the next one or two years, the monthly amount owing on the loan, may lead to default and bad debts more. Personally think that America subordinated debt risk is far from over. Even if USA subprime risk does not deteriorate further, is enough to arouse our vigilance Chinese mortgage market, be vigilant in peace time helps to kill before the outbreak of contradiction.

   The father of securities analysis says Graham:"The stock market is a voting machine in short term, in the long run, it is a weighing machine". So is the short term prices, because people are too optimistic, pessimistic expectations and excessive rose or fell over, but long-term price depends on the value of the house.At present China prices have continued to rise in recent 9 years, or great, but China commercial loans has been from about 40000000000 yuan in 1998 rose to 7 at the end of this year's 4.3 trillion yuan, up 100 times. Because of Chinese prices continued to rise, the mortgage is still the asset quality of banks, but has started the following risk:

   1, interest rates rise pressure owing on the loan increase. After raising interest rates 7 times since 2004, more than five years of mortgage lending rate rose from 5.184% to 6.426%, mortgage interest payments increase nearly 1/4. Mortgage repayment pressure. And Chinese pressure owing on the loan had great: Shanghai, Beijing residents overall household debt ratio reached 155% and 122%, more than 115% over the same period American level. According to the prevailing international opinion, a monthly income of 1/3 is a cordon mortgage loans, while the central bank announced: 10 at the end of 2005, the average monthly Beijing, Tianjin, Shanghai 10 city for revenue ratio of 35%. Sina.com.cn survey found that 31.75% of people, accounted for more than 50% of their income.

   2, the risk of false mortgage. Typical case: in 2006 after the burst of Shanghai Pudong Development Bank cheated personal loans 126000000 yuan, Beijing apartment Piandai 750000000 yuan, and Yao Kangda loans 70000000 real events. False mortgage have inflated prices, buyers to zero Shoufu buy real estate, such as house prices 1000000, add 1500000 to 500000 Shoufu, forgery proof, to bank loans 1000000. Also have the use of another person's identity card, or make false mortgage. The CBRC survey shows: as of 2006 6 at the end of the month, relates to the "false mortgage loan amount to billions of yuan". I'm afraid this is only the tip of the iceberg.

   Risk of 3, China residents property opaque. Bank borrowers to apply for proof of income units is difficult to verify whether it is true, how much property is difficult to identify. So when prices fall, loans to buy real estate become "negative assets", the owners through false divorce, the transfer of property, transfer of his way to avoid responsibility for stealing owing on the loan bank, the bank is difficult to trace.

   4, from the dishonest agency risk. The 126000000 problems above Shanghai Pudong Development Bank loans in the case, a notary office issued a legal proof of income, to evaluate Shanghai Guanghua Real Estate Co. Ltd as a lender to buy price is 24000000 yuan, the market has the highest price of 40000000 yuan property assessment for 100000000 yuan. According to the calculation of 7 loans, can from the Shanghai Pudong Development Bank loan to 70000000 yuan, remove the real limit from 46000000 yuan in cash, bank. For lawyers in the testimony of false Shoufu also tend to open eyes closed eyes.

   5, the vicious competition among banks risks. As the competition between banks so far excellent business loans, to relax the risk standard of review, part of the loan to the lack of repayment ability person. Even lower mortgage threshold. As a Shanghai Bank launched the staging Shoufu sales mode, namely the first payment stage, a set of 1500000 houses only first pay 100000 can be signed pre-sale contracts, the payment can be paid in stages within half a year. Agricultural Bank of China Shanghai branch launched individual housing loans relay service, students can also participate in the loan to buy a house.

   6, the risk is the most fundamental property prices. Than the average income, the United Nations Habitat limit is 3:1, the world bank is set to 5:1, according to the "well-off" magazine in 2006 the referenced data, American housing price income ratio is 3:1. The average price America only $1100 / square meters. But American erupted in the subprime mortgage crisis. While many of China's real estate hot city, real income than the 12:1 already, Chinese per capita deposits less than 14000 are faced with ten months of 2004 years ago is as high as 2758 yuan / m2 prices. At the same time, in recent years Chinese has nearly 100000000 square meters of commercial housing vacancy. When the housing bubble burst, the banks will face the risk of loans.

    Li Jiacheng had summarized: "house prices do not necessarily dead, be dead when prices fall".The price is up is down, the default rate is not the same. In 2004, the average rate of bad bank loans in Shanghai only about 0.1%, after the 2005 March Shanghai property market cooling down, and to 2 at the end of 2007, the mortgage banks non-performing rate has reached 0.95%, 3 years of non-performing rate jumped about 8 times. Shanghai prices rise again this year, the situation has improved obviously. House prices rise, the lender will try to repayment, even if the owners default, banks sell the property to recover the loans is not the problem. But a fall in house prices, mortgage default rates will rise, while banks in the falling market may recover money not mortgage interest. China banks paying a huge price just real bad assets rate drop, in the face of America subprime lesson, should be vigilant in peace time, the immediate action, to raise the mortgage down payment, strengthen self-discipline, cautious mortgage lending, to avoid future loss. The man should also make both ends meet Chinese buy a house, buy a house cautious borrowing, avoid become slaves and "negative weng".

   This paper was completed in more than a month ago, due to the "life" magazine published in wealth, so that today is published.

   In this paper, a blog in Sina Property & campaign