The third sectionCredit risk management of commercial bank

One, the loan risk types and causes:

(a): the borrower credit risk or market counterparty default or credit rating changes caused by the possibility of bank assets market value losses. Its origin:

1, industry analysis backward

2, the loan before the survey and analysis of financial failure

3, the moral risk

4, information asymmetry

(two) the market risk: refers to the probability of bank internal and external assets loss caused by the fluctuation of market price. Its origin:

1, the environmental lapse in judgment, conditions

2, assets, liabilities, capital combination is not reasonable (such as GAP)

3, market competition

4, do not force majeure

(three) operational risk

The possibility that because of inadequate or failed internal procedures, staff and system or losses caused by external. Its origin:

1, the lack of scientific, written credit policies

2, lack or not perfect internal management system

Operation or procedure 3, not scientific

Two, the loan risk identification

1 normal loans

2 such loans

3 of subprime loans

4 suspicious loans

5 the loss class loan

Case analysis

Xinda Trading Company in 2002 September to the A bank for a period of 3 years of mortgage loans for the purchase of 24000000 yuan, a shopping mall, 12 return. The property purchase price of 40000000 yuan, the mortgage rate 60%. Because of the poor management, product sales are sluggish, in the fifth phase, after the return, the borrower cannot repay the loan principal and interest of each. By the end of 2003, there are the outstanding principal balance of loans 19800000 yuan. The borrower has ceased operations, most of the staff have already left the company, the borrower has submitted an application for bankruptcy.

Banks in the resort to legal proceedings, already obtained ownership of the mall, and in classification, last week held the auction, the auction price is 15000000 yuan, the auction fee 1500000 yuan, the bank is expected to recover the funds of 13500000 yuan. Please proceed to the 19800000 yuan loan balance (split) classification, and explain the reasons.

Reference answer: 13500000 yuan for such loans

6300000 yuan for the loss class loan

(two) credit analysis

1, credit analysis: commercial bank loans in advance, moral character, capital strength, management ability, collateral and environmental conditions of the system analysis, to determine whether to grant loans and loan conditions analysis evaluation process.

(1) the 5C standard (character), (capacity), moral ability (capital) capital,

(condition), (collateral) collateral

(2) the 5W standard

Who, why, when use of the loan borrowers loan period, repayment guarantee, how what

(3) the 5P standard

Personal borrowers, loan purpose, payment, purpose, protection, perspective guarantees repayment prospects for enterprise development

2Credit analysis (i.e., specific analysis methods and contents)

(1) the ability of enterprise management decision analysis

(2) investigation and analysis of the financial situation of enterprises

First, financial statement analysis, is mainly to the enterprise's balance sheet, the income statement and the statement of changes in financial position table. Analysis of financial statements, should focus on four major projects analysis.

One is the analysis of assets

The two is the analysis of debt and equity capital projects

The three is the analysis of the income statement items

The four is the analysis on the financial status of the statement of changes in the project

Second, the financial ratio analysis

(1) the analysis of liquidity ratio

The liquidity ratio = current assets / liabilities * 100%

※"Too high may not be strong: inventory backlog or stagnation pressure results

The easy to counterfeit

The quick ratio (acid ratio) = (current assets / liabilities inventory) * 100%

Fixed stock liquidity is poor, generally 100%, China 90%

The cash ratio = (cash and cash equivalents) / liquidity x 100%

Cash is cash + non deposit; equivalent cash = high liquidity of securities

★ the above three indicators and solvency is proportional to

(2) the level of profitability analysis

The sales profit rate (per unit sales enterprises can bring profits) = (Sales - cost of sales - tax / Sales)

The return on assets (enterprise in each unit assets profitability)

= total net income / assets

The common stock returns (common shareholders profit index)

= (excluding taxes and interest net income - the preferred dividends) / common equity value

The stock price to earnings ratio = market value per share and earnings per share

Tell people the company needed many years of earnings to make the real value of the stock has flat and recently market, also known as the "second period".

The higher the price earnings ratio, the longer the recovery period.

(3) financial structure ratio (leverage ratio) analysis

The debt ratio (debt to asset ratio) = debt / total assets

The debt to equity ratio (ratio of equity or debt to equity ratio)

= Total Liabilities / net capital

This ratio reflects the ability of the enterprise capital debt ratio, the higher, more heavy debt burden.

The current debt ratio (the proportion of short-term liabilities in total liabilities of enterprises)

Current liabilities / all liabilities

The liquidity ratio = current assets / total assets (or liabilities)

Debt to assets reflect enterprise

Equity of the financial leverage ratio = total assets /

Equity ratio = equity / total assets

The larger the ratio, rights of access to leverage more revenue, enterprise capital ratio is low, the risk is low.

(4) analyzing operation capability ratio

The asset turnover = sales / total net assets

Enterprises with certain assets to achieve sales revenue more, asset turnover faster

The fixed asset turnover = sales net / net value of fixed assets

The higher the ratio, the utilization of fixed assets is higher

The net cost of inventory turnover = sales / average inventory

Measure the enterprise sales and inventory are excessive index

The receivable turnover = sales / average balance of accounts receivable

To reflect the enterprise accounts receivable realization speed and recover the credit account

(5) the Du Pont system.

The Du Pont system will return on equity into leverage, profitability, activity ratio and overall structure ratio. Analysts by this system can be observed in several key links in a business. Return on equity (ROE) can be defined as:

 

As can be seen, the return on equity is the leverage ratio and return on assets (ROA) product. Return on assets can be expressed as:

 

Sales / total assets to total assets turnover, is an activity ratio, while net profit / sales is the rate of return. Total assets can be divided in several projects, the after tax net income can be expressed as the overall structure of the balance of profit and loss statement. The ROE index of DuPont analysis involves all aspects of business, can be evaluated comprehensively on Corporate Performance

Third, the analysis of cash flow

1: the enterprise cash flow cash balance due to business activities, investment, financing. Including cash flow, cash flow and net cash flow.

Cash: cash on hand, demand deposits, other monetary funds and investments in debt securities of three months.

Cash flow into the flow = operating cash

+ investment cash flow

+ cash flows from financing activities

2 of the cash flow statement

The prepared with cash, fully reflect the business activities of a certain period of time, the dynamic report investment activities and financing activities cash inflow and outflow.

3 the loan risk control

(1) risk aversion

Risk aversion is a risk of more conservative control means, don't take the risk nature also won't suffer the risk of loss. But it also meant the loss of lower market share and profit opportunities. Therefore, the correct attitude to commercial bank managers should hold is the relationship between the balance of benefits and risks, the risks and benefits of active avoidance does not match the business, the initiative for the risks and benefits of matching service, not only to ensure the security of credit funds, and ensure the credit benefit.

(2) risk dispersion

In order to control the risk is too concentrated and the risk of a combination of measures of diversity.

Paragraph dispersion: but there are limits, such as the financing of small and medium-sized enterprises

The term of the loan spread: the securitization of credit assets

The loan interest rate spread: fixed interest rate and floating interest rate

Participants scattered syndicated loan: Loan

Dispersion: interest rate swap loan area

Loan currency spread

(3Risk transfer)

An ex ante risk control measures. It refers to the risk of loans, through various means, to the possible risk to other people assume, so as to ensure the safety of commercial bank loans.

To transfer (such as the floating rate or assets mortgage etc.)

To guarantee the transfer: Hunan investment joint guarantee

Transfers to the social insurance institutions

 

Class discussion

1 deposit or loan?

2 deposit legislation or loans made?