Tesla electric car company comprehensive analysis

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Tesla electric car company comprehensive analysis1

Author: Sal DemirTranslation: the wolf wolf gun

With the leisure time translation two papers about Tesla company analysis of the article, hope that the two article can help you to understand the true Tesla Motors, welcome to point out mistakes in the translation, if found any message in the comments, I will always be correct, thank you! The original author and the translator can be reprinted annotated.$Tesla electric vehicle (TSLA)

The text:
We live in a lot of people blindly follow the "wise man" of the world, the last two examples are many investors follow the hedge fund manager's investment bet -- they are JC Penney , Bill Ackman and sing more active Chipotle, active sing empty David Einhorn. From the macro point of view, their HFRX global hedge fund index in 2012 the rate of return of only 3.5 percentage points, compared with the standard & Poor's 500 index 16 points.

I believe that Tesla is another let many professional analysts see the eye of company. Although Tesla up to now very successful, but some analysts still in short Tesla, according to the website data display, as of April 12th, the short amount of Tesla is 47.75%, close to the volume of transactions for about 23 days. This epic - will still be talking about for years, I think it is, but let's have a look the reason people short of tesla.

Tesla was "controversial" symbol of stock, you can often hear this company in the past ten years of news, but mostly on the company size reported. These reports are mostly negative news, although Tesla company vision is obviously positive -- "to the mainstream consumer to provide a variety of electric vehicles to increase the number of electric cars, and accelerate the transformation of the human from fossil energy economy to photovoltaic power economy, the sustainable energy from niche to mainstream"

Electric car compared with diesel and carbon emissions

There are a large number of studies show that the electric vehicle emissions significantly less than diesel locomotive. Taking California as an example, the top three is the main power source, natural gas power generation, hydropower and nuclear power, carbon dioxide equivalent to about 4000 pounds a year to produce electric cars, while an internal combustion engine, to produce carbon dioxide equivalent to about 13000 pounds per year. Even with coal, nuclear power and natural gas power generation as the main power source and so. The experts also mentioned the inefficient coal-fired power plants are being rapidly replaced by natural gas is cheap and renewable energy power plants, two of carbon dioxide equivalent in the next few years will rapidly nationwide using solar power and permanent free Tesla super charging station network will also enable the electric vehicle of decline. Another very important point is, per capita carbon emissions in Europe, 7.5 tons, 17.3 tons of American has be way ahead, and electric cars will undoubtedly become the transition to a sustainable energy accelerator.

Fossil fuel is limited and non renewable, one day there will be a depletion. We should not go to overdraft the resources. Even though we are short-sighted and selfish (but think of your descendants), many oil experts point out that, in the America oil production increase does not mean that the oil price will decline, because oil is a globally traded, so very little impact on global oil prices. In addition, because the oil drilling is a capital intensive business, particularly unconventional drilling well recently, so the development cost can never decrease. So obviously, nonrenewable and renewable, finite and infinite, what is good or bad? What is wise? Stick out a mile.

Power compared to gasoline saving money, to Europe and USA for example, Tesla contrast BMW M5, Audi A7, Mercedes Benz E63
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* * * Tesla plans to begin production in July and delivered to the European market S car in June of this year, followed by the fourth quarter delivery vehicle type S asia. See table 10 comparison between the electric vehicle and fuel vehicles to save costs, buyers should be excited. If S car sales in Europe in the second half of 2014 more than USA, I wouldn't be surprised.

* * * Please don't forget the third generation electric GEN III, the car can save ten years in American cost $20000, that would mean $30000 or so GENIII will become a vehicle for customers to save money for a car. While in Europe, the ten years the money saved in enough to pay for a Tesla GEN III, and save the cost of 18000 dollars for your disposal, this is undoubtedly very attractive.

The overall planning of Tesla

Automobile manufacturers are constantly trying to produce low cost electric vehicles in the past few decades, but failed, Tesla is taking a different approach.

In short, the first step of production: high price, low number of the concept car, let the public know the performance of electric vehicles and car comparable; the second step, the production of medium price, a moderate number of vehicles (S), let the public know electric vehicle reliability and comfort, gradually understanding and acceptance of electric; finally, the third step: the production of low price, high number of public electric cars, electric cars to gain popularity.

Tesla now walking in the second step, and the fact that the good development the company has more than many expected, including me.

And the main negative arguments Tesla opposition
1, advanced technology vehicles manufacturing (ATVM) loan program

ATVM loan program is chartered by the American Congress, and in 2008 by George W Bush signed into law by president. As part of this program, Ford and Nissan received $5900000000 and $1900000000 in loans, which makes $4.65 billion dollars in loans Tesla like pocket change. Many people think that Tesla is to rely on government loans to maintain their livelihood, and in 2013 March 7 day, Tesla announced to repay the loan will be five years ahead of time, and in June this year, Tesla seven years early repayment of the loan.

Before, many conservatives, including Mr. Romney, Palin, Bill O'Reilly says Tesla was a "loser", said the loan is "another failure of the Obama plan" part and so on, you feel when they are in America even in all the world to see the streets of Mercedes Benz Tesla, heart is how to think.

2, the electric car is not attractive, slow speed, mileage of short (previously 2006)

Tesla Roadster, Tesla's first generation products, a sexy sports car in 3.7 seconds to accelerate from a standstill to 100km/h, and has a range of 310 miles. This car from mass production to now have five years time, now you can see it in the way the world. The car uses the British Lotus car body.

3, Tesla never own production car

Say hello to S car I hit it, it is a completely by Tesla manufacturing and was Motor Trend, Automobile Magazine, Yahoo Autos and other auto evaluation institutions as the best car of the year car. This is the real car 2, if you want to write an article about the car or the company's articles or reviews, better go to take it for a test drive, or never, ever!

4, Tesla's goal is a niche market, Tesla Motors is a rich man's toy

Elon Musk and Tesla Motors has repeatedly said, their goal is to mass production mass electric vehicle. Musk also shows electric car, Tesla has developed the third generation sells for around $30000. He said: "Tesla third generation of electric vehicles is slightly less than that of S type, 300 km range, with some inconvenient but very cool in".

5, "range anxiety", "electric cars can not be used for long distance travel"

According to USA Department of energy data show that, even if you have to pick up the kids, shopping consumption mileage plus, 96% daily driving mileage are less than 20 miles (32 km), so for the mileage can reach 480 km and convenient charging Tesla, does not exist "range anxiety".

On the long journey, to tell you the truth, more people choose to travel by plane, because it costs almost as you self driving tour by the use of the cost of gasoline, but also much more convenient. And don't forget, most families have more cars, if you really want to open a Tesla went on a long journey, Tesla's brothers SolarCity has multiple super charging stations are built in North America, they can help your car full of electricity, and is permanent and free. In fact the long-distance travel 500 kilometers more tired, sit down and eat or Kung Fu electric last Restroom is full of. Super charging station network continues to expand, the future will cover the United States, Europe and Asia also in network layout.

6, the cost of replacing batteries, "brick" risk and the number of years after the power attenuation

Tesla electric vehicle batteries all have a reliable warranty policy, S car 60 kwh version enjoyed 8 years 200000 km warranty (whichever comes first), and 85 kwh version enjoys 8 years of unlimited km warranty, and you can also choose to replace the new battery in eight years, the price respectively: 65 kwh version of the $10000, 85 kwh version of the $12000.

In real life, there are also some love extreme users, a crazy German guy had his Tesla Roadster in four years' time driving over 250000 km!! Who can be a $120000 car every year to drive more than sixty thousand kilometers, this guy did it, you might try Google this guy, I here a simple abstract: "he is a famous Roadster owners, in a short span of four years, he was driving his Tesla Roadster running more than 250000 kilometers away, and his car battery capacity decay to the original capacity of 70%."

The drive such as child car guy is clearly a case, S car battery technology has been higher than the Roadster a lot of progress, so we can infer that S car battery in 8 year warranty battery attenuation rate will not become a worrying problem. Moreover, S car will not be like the internal combustion engine that has a lot of loss to maintenance, it has no engine, no transmission, no spark, no air bleed valve, no oil tank and oil, no distributor, engine, clutch, exhaust pipe, three way catalytic converter and so on, according to the howstuffworks.com website and many experts suggest -- "electric cars need maintenance parts only diesel locomotive 1/3."

7, the lithium battery is dangerous, Tesla will face such problems as the Boeing Company

The Boeing 787 aircraft battery is facing a "runaway" problem -- when one of the cell temperature began to rise sharply, heat quickly spread to other cells. Boeing will cell divided into 8 group management, and Tesla Model S car at least 7000 small batteries, his approach is independent each cell isolation, to prevent overheating of the chain reaction. Whereas Tesla using their own unique (patent pending) thermal management and safety system, the thermal runaway situation will immediately cut off the battery and battery power supply around, and display the alarm to remind the owners and notify the company to inspect the battery immediately.

Chief engineer in communication with the Boeing company, Elon Musk said:

"Unfortunately, cell architecture essence Boeing is not safe. No space to isolate heat enough batteries, generate heat runaway chain reaction will be between cells, the accident is sooner or later."

He concluded: "Boeing used large battery in the thermal control itself is more difficult than small cells, thereby increasing the risk of thermal runaway.

Tesla Roadster (using a Tesla the old version of the battery and thermal management system) in the world on the road had been driving for five years, so far only one battery smoke event: a customer calls, said his car right front corner of smoke, fearing it would cause fire. After the customer to put the car near the fire department, the fire hazard.

Tesla engineers to solve this problem, the reason is the cable car is a 12 volt improper extrusion, wear. Mainly Roadster 2.0 and version 2.5, Tesla recalled 439 vehicles Roadster in question and to solve the problem, but until now the position, the vehicle type S more advanced battery and the battery thermal management system out of control the risk reduce. America since 2000 there have been 149458000 cars were recalled, whether Tesla or traditional automobile manufacturers, all want to recall as little as possible, but even recall, the recall problem is easy to solve. This is the risk of all car manufacturers have to bear. I also want to say that Tesla Model S car won the 5 star in the NHTSA crash test self testing.

8, Tesla company route and valuation model

Clearly, the next 3-4 years of product roadmap and product details, is good news for Tesla's investors, you can expect and establish a valuation model in the product before the launch, including the company's profit, pre estimated global delivery quantity etc.. The table below is the valuation model of my.
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1, this model is the Tesla in California Buddha force Monto super plant based on production capacity, the former general - Toyota joint development of the car factory is the Tesla in 08 years the financial crisis when buy, only $42000000, which is less than before the factory 1000000000 valuation of five percent. At present, production workshop occupies only a small part of the factory, and the factory has an annual production capacity of 500000 cars, so Tesla will not because of expansion and increased spending (Tesla factory located in Holland factory will be used for the production of Tilburg auto parts for the super plant) I strongly suggest you watch this the documentary:Http://video.sina.com.cn/v/b/102325218-1749256467.html

2, three years before the price I expected quite conservative, yield S car during this period, the production efficiency and profit improvement, improve customer service, marketing or forced air and other factors will have a strong impact on stock price. (this paper was written in 2013 April, the stock was trading around 40, in the upper and lower in fact after the first quarter results, a textbook -, and increasing production, consumer reports the highest ever score, influence the stock price and the stock price once flushed 120 high)

3, because of the increased production may shift to rise.

X car 4, next year the production of market demand may be higher than expected.

5, the third generation of electric vehicles is likely to start production

6, the high growth companies, 40 times the earnings I given rate is actually quite conservative, have a look 900 times price earnings Facebook price to earnings ratio of 1700 times and the rate of Linkedin will know.

Compared with the valuation method, please 7 analysts don't take Tesla and Detroit's big three, Tesla unlike those companies, a drag, pension, health care union gold liabilities, no more bureaucratic system accumulated decades. This is a very simplified technology car company, so the profit rate will be even more impressive.

The main risk 9, Tesla exist

1, mechanical design vulnerabilities in recall, I mainly refers to the design flaw on mechanical silly because most function control Tesla Model S is through the 17 Inch Touch screen, the error can be easily through software upgrades to avoid. The software update is in sadly through wireless network, upgrade the finished. But even if it is to recall the mechanical issues, also need not worry has great influence on the stock price, ask a car no engine, gearbox, spark plugs, air suction valve, oil tank, distributor, starter, clutch, exhaust manifold, catalytic converter will have how many mechanical problem?

2, the second risk is the mainstream manufacturers use their capital scale and industrial advantages to create a comparable Tesla third generation electric vehicle products. But so far, no any carmaker to produce and Tesla Model S car comparable products. GM is only a plan to make life more than 300 kilometers of the traditional electric carmaker, but their products are still in the development stages. Toyota Corporation vice chairman Takeuchi Yamada in 2012 September to Reuters reporter said: "they no longer have the development of electric vehicle program, because the existing electric vehicle technology from both the endurance, the use of cost and the charging time can not satisfy the demand of the society"

All other car manufacturers of electric vehicles not only performance is poor, and the shape is not pleasant. History is similar to a certain extent, think of apple computer field and Microsoft, Amazon and best buy, intelligent mobile phone field of apple and Blackberry, search and Yahoo! Google... And better yet, even electric vehicle technology mainstream manufacturers catch up with Tesla, the electric car market space is still large, the position will not affect the Tesla in electric field. Elon Musk has repeatedly said that he would like to see all the traditional manufacturers start the production of electric cars, not only the Tesla a. Look back at the valuation model I, compared with annual output in 2019 about 500000 of Detroit's big three automakers at least annually the annual output of 14000000 vehicles and 60000000 global automakers a annual output, is but a drop in the bucket.
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* * * Tesla is still in the process of promoting productivity

After 2018-2019 years? Elon Musk will tell you, he has started to plan the Tesla truck (here refers to Ford truck similar like F150 pickup, are more common in North American family), a high performance sports car horsepower and control also has strong electric truck carrying capacity and good economy.

The Tesla, the sky is the limit, electric trucks, electric buses, electric motorcycles and so are the development goals, and now we are thinking about fit Tesla third generation electric vehicle in the future with the government, institutions, car rental companies and other institutions. Because in the long run, electric cars will save them a lot of money. Apparently the S car is also possible (future battery cost reduction will make S car reached a very low price). Now Zappos.com , Xie Jiahua ordered 100 S car, as part of his future will be the Las Vegas into contact type community vision.

Conclusion:

All this information tells us: as a prospective investors, don't you see that Tesla had a very cool and products to meet consumer demand? I don't like contrast Jobs everyone with Elon Musk and apple, Tesla to complete the mission to Apple Corp more conducive to human development, unless you think MP3, computer and mobile phone innovation than the liberation of human beings, dependent on fossil fuels to reduce carbon dioxide emissions, accelerate the use of PV energy and restart the human exploration of space and even more important to help people into more of the planet. Please do not misunderstand, mobile phone innovation is very important, and that Jobs was a genius level CEO and marketing. However, he and Elon Musk were not in the same level, now most people have of Tesla companies and their products is very strange, cites Jobs once said a word: "according to the needs of audience to design products is very difficult. Because in many cases, people do not know what you want, but you need to show them."

Then, Musk will do it!

The author of this paper written in April 14, 2013

The original link:Http://seekingalpha.com/article/1381001-tesla-motors-full-analysis-its-only-mistake-outlook-and-elon-musk
Http://seekingalpha.com/article/1532842-tesla-motors-full-analysis-2-0

Author: Sal Demir translation: the wolf wolf gun translated two articles about Tesla analysis by use of leisure time, hope that this two articles can help you to understand the true Tesla Motors, welcome to point out mistakes in the translation, if found any message in the comments, I will always be correct, thank you! The original author and the translator can be reprinted annotated.$Tesla electric vehicle (TSLA)Abstract: Tesla electric car company comprehensive analysis of 2..

Author: Sal DemirTranslation: the wolf wolf gun

With the leisure time translation two papers about Tesla company analysis of the article, hope that the two article can help you to understand the true Tesla Motors, welcome to point out mistakes in the translation, if found any message in the comments, I will always be correct, thank you! The original author and the translator can be reprinted annotated.$Tesla electric vehicle (TSLA)

The text:
Tesla electric car company comprehensive analysis2

Popular is an article after the launch, Tesla company since then (April 14th) released a lot of strategic products, and successfully completed second additional shares and - a textbook, Tesla also from a company with only a few people know a if you don't know Silicon Valley automobile manufacturers all feel shy to say hello.

An article to solve a lot of investors and investment companies doubt, even Tesla CEO Elon Musk on twitter reply I said I write well, a day after the Elon Musk was announced in a tweet to some data correcting wrong before, and these mistakes is what I mentioned in the article in the. Of course, there are also some for me to let people don't follow the "wise man" response, everything is interesting. (there are some slot paper, authors here omit some words)

Now, let us work together to analyze all sing empty grounds and query and analysis will be Tesla as a long-term investment risk object. As of July 2nd. I will influence events and the importance of doing what I think is the best. In addition, I will estimate the pricing model of mine from conservative to reality, because now most of the announcement and Tesla - has come to an end.

A brief valuation figure:
View original imageThe original

View original image1, electric vehicle technology and its main advantages: fuel and maintenance cost savings

Some of Tesla's short until today do not understand this, they think that electric cars will always be a rich man's toy, and charging difficulties, will lead to "range anxiety", sales can not go up forever. All this until the Tesla Model S car was overturned thoroughly, before the hearts of the people of electric vehicles is more like a golf cart. While most mainstream manufacturers in electric vehicle manufacturing and lack of passion or commitment, the majority is obedience to superior boss's order, make the products in a single vehicle options. There are more like BMW such car makers are internal combustion engine energy R & D such as biodiesel, fuel, gas fuel like, these examples be too numerous to enumerate, but few companies like Tesla as only electric vehicle.

As an energy source, the power can be seen everywhere, but also more fossil energy is easier to get, you can be in any place to your electric car charging, whether your garage or are you in the woods.

View original imageMotor largely outperforms the internal combustion engine, in terms of efficiency or vehicle structure, the motor efficiency is more than 80%, and the efficiency of internal combustion engine (only 15-20%:Http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electric_car#Energy_efficiency), from the structure, components of electric vehicles is much less obvious diesel locomotive. From the use of fees, price than cheap oil. In the densely populated and polluted areas, electric vehicle can also have a positive impact on the environment and air quality.

Efficiency and performance comparison of electric and diesel locomotives:

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BMW M5 chassis structure and Tesla Model S car chassis structure comparison

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Linear acceleration in the game, Tesla electric vehicle against BMW M5, the Internet can also search to Tesla electric vehicle against the Dodge Viper and numerous sports video

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Imagine if the general did not kill EV1 and all the automobile manufacturers from the beginning of 1999 to the electric vehicle technology accumulated will be how? The first generation of EV1 is composed of general motors of the electric vehicle, began to develop in 1996, the first generation of endurance mileage of 96 kilometers, the second generation began in 1998 R & D, the mileage to 160 km, third generation began in 1999 R & D, the mileage to 256 km. Therefore, according to the 27% annual mileage progress space development up to now, the electric car battery capacity will increase by 2235% in 13 years, that is to say we will see a mileage of over 3800 km of electric vehicle. It sounds crazy? Not at all, have a look your child in the hands of the intelligent mobile phone, its processing power than that of landing on the moon Appollo No. 11 on the computer is more powerful.

View original imageStep back and say, even if the battery capacity of the annual growth slowed sharply, we also have more than 1000 miles of endurance. Furthermore, the annual growth rate of only 27% GM EV1 this small sector growth, if all the main R & D to electric vehicle manufacturers. In 2008, the bankruptcy hearings on GM, former General Motors CEO Rick Wagner has said: "during his tenure, he made the worst decision is cut off EV1 electric vehicle program" former GM R & D director Larry Byrne says, he hopes to "no kill EV1, the us ten years before you can have the Chevrolet VOLT" while EV1 was killed, the reason is because the plan had been scepticism that is not making money. And they Toyota hybrid car Prius said the same thing, and now, the Prius has become the world's well-known best-selling car.

View original imageSo, why is EV1 so outstanding but was killed? Two words: fuel and repair and maintenance. Electronic equipment manufacturers past no lobby against them, until the last thirty. We can see, the 10 highest earning companies, 7 are engaged in the oil and gas business. Do you think they will look at how a car has a range of 800 km of electric vehicles?

Graph: the world's top ten companies

View original imageAnd like Motorola, Nokia, companies such as apple in the bigger and stronger at the same time why no lobby against them, obviously, they are all in the same industry in the competition, do not pose a threat to traditional industry.

View original imageElectric vehicle can save fuel costs, the long run, because of less components, lower maintenance cost compared with the internal combustion engine. Back in general, we wonder why they cancelled the plan EV1, there are a lot of people claim that this is because the general worry about electric vehicle strong Congress cut their traditional auto parts industry, the industry is quite huge, according to analysis of site analysis, global industry by the end of 2015, the industry is worth about $306000000000 in.

And America is the market leader in 2012, the market value of about $41000000000, Forbes magazine has a detailed analysis of the industry:Http://www.forbes.com/sites/jimhenry/2012/02/29/the-surprising-ways-car-dealers-make-the-most-money-off-of-you/2/

View original imageTherefore, it is not difficult to understand why these people afraid of electric cars become a mainstream.

(for Tesla, auto repair service and showing store is separated and will not have any profit, Elon Musk exact said: I already told Tesla repair department, your job is not to make money, but to improve the quality of the products, I hate our products for quality oversight and let us make money.)

Ultimately, the success of electric vehicles, the need for an independent is known for its engineering quality company, instead of a manufacturing industry chain composed of traditional car interest group. Otherwise the repair factory will day night and hope the thinking of getting your car as soon as possible, so that they have a meal to eat.

Has a history of over a hundred years the automobile manufacturing industry, how could a small company just started will make a best car?

Tesla electric car company was founded in San Francisco, the initial investment of only $100000000 of the company, it takes five years of R & D and manufacturing of the electric car the first generation Roadster endurance of 390 kilometers, the company or private investment, without government aid. Elon Musk is the first to have the courage and the business vision electric engineer, but the progress he has made is be hardly worthy of belief. Any a Tesla Model S car people feel this is his own best car. North American Journal of Motor Trend Magazine and consumer reports that Tesla Model S car is the best car they tested (not only refers to the electric car, but all the cars), auto charging and maintenance, Tesla drivers already know how convenient charging is every night, as long as you plug the charger, the second day early in the morning there is a full electric mileage of at least 400 kilometers car ready, they never go to the gas station, don't do different kinds of traditional vehicle maintenance.

Most people's daily driving mileage of not more than 40 kilometers, if you want to go further afield, they usually choose to travel by plane, because the plane tickets the same mileage equivalent fuel costs for you. If you open more than 5 hours, you'll want to stop to rest your feet what something to eat, I will charge. Moreover, the lifelong super charge free of charge station network has been rolled out in North America and Europe, the future will radiate to any one place Tesla third generation car.

Equally exciting, many analysts, including professional auto industry analysts also kept in emphasizing the Tesla is hitherto unknown, if a create no electric vehicle manufacturers in recent years has also known to be in a few years the production of a "ever since the best car", it is absolutely nobody will believe. The Tesla Model S car do -- North American Motor Trend Magazine judges since founded in 1949 the first undisputed will the car as the best car of the year. Similarly, in 1936 the North American Consumer Reports magazine's best car test, also with other magazines praised this electric car and gives 99 points of the history of the most high. So why Tesla still have so much to sing words on? They can see the electric car maker will make mistakes? He is a politician to be set in one's way? Or is the short-term investors blindly optimistic mood led to rising stock prices?

We have reason to believe that electric cars will ultimately be successful, in the highly interconnected times, it is easy to realize with a convenient charging mileage, striking is how reality, more super charging network covering more and plus, even without government subsidies, Tesla can also rely on S and X car car the profit and the smooth production third generation electric vehicle.

Unfortunately, there are still many analysts in accordance with the history of the development of electric vehicle manufacturers in the past to predict the future is to Tesla, as predicted from the short parents of a young and successful athletes of the future is a truth.

2, the bearish reason: Tesla is not profitable without any government subsidies.

In the absence of government subsidies, Tesla will realize a profit in the fourth quarter of 2013, some analysts long-term bearish Tesla and provides all kinds of reasons, when Tesla data reaches its analysis of the expected, they had missed the early investors have begun to enjoy the profit index. Omitted here some of the analysts about the.

After all, if you do not have the foresight and courage, you will never have the success of the day.

3, Tesla hyperfine fund in 2013 will be the efficiency optimization

For me, the most happy than in the first quarter earnings conference call hear Tesla efficiency optimization news for the various aspects of the company, not to expand production. This is a smart investor wants to hear, because we all know that a company should improve management is based on the high efficiency.

Tesla has developed a complete optimization of most of the links in the fourth quarter of 2013, thus initially formulated 25% wool interest rate target (not federal subsidies). Musk also emphasized, "we will focus on the 2014 product demand, may be expected to be higher than we started".

2013 is the strategic focus of Tesla balance those principles wait for customers to provide automobile car and not mass production of low margin cars. Keep a quarter of production of 5000 cars, and committed to improving the efficiency of. In this strategy, I completely agree.

Now, what kind of Tesla investors want to see the low efficiency of the delivery of a large number of low margin cars? Is the lack of vision only hope to see some "big" digital man on the paper. I imagine a lot to make a small fortune myopic traders {I wouldn't call these people more investors}, they always want to similar Tesla concussion such stock "catch the chance", but the results really missed a lot of chances, only to re start at a high level.

I think like Tesla investment, will only serve the "loyal long-term holders" rather than "speculators", because the product is There was no parallel in history., and technology update cannot be forecast.

4, Tesla's cash flow and undervalued super factory

These two factors are many analysts underestimated. At present, the Tesla factory was founded in 1962, and was refurbished in 1984, 88 American football fields, the production capacity of up to 400000 units a year. This figure will increase along with the plant efficiency and improve the technical level, therefore before the production of more than 600000700000, Tesla may not add a new factory.

The second factor is the Tesla has at least $800000000 in cash, enough to support R & D plan this model X (about $200000000), expand the super charging network in North America, Canada and Europe (about $100000000), station plan (50000000 -1 billion dollars). There are 400000000 with the delivery of S type and X car car produced, which makes the third generation electric vehicle plans to continue, so basically investment Tesla is very safe, even if there is not a force majeure event.

5 see reason: the mainstream manufacturers will produce better products to squeeze a little Tesla

Until today, no one (including electric concept car) and S models to match. Imagine there's no one will get a $$72795 Audi A6 and a $23000 Toyota come to do comparison. Because the S models on the market and other electric vehicle comparison is meaningless. No matter from the endurance, performance are nowhere.

View original image View original imageGM has announced that they are in the development of a range of up to 200 miles of electric vehicles. Considering the carmaker from R & D model to go into mass production required an average of two and a half years, so, we can confidently say, S models and X models until at least 2016 do not have the competitors. For example, volt prototype Chevy was published in 2007 January, put into production in 2010 December, which lasted three years and 11 months. Until we can compete with the products available, there have been tens of thousands of S models and X models used in the world. Production of the two vehicles is 60%, so the Tesla profit space is very high, its stock price will soar. We also note that, at the same time, Volt is still losing money, although it is estimated at $40000 a share, the federal government subsidies, and than the S models as early as 1 and a half years of R & D.

From a long-term point of view, I believe that other brand success will make the Tesla a more convincing. And a number of brand promotion of electric vehicles than Tesla single brand of success, will help to promote electric vehicles to replace diesel locomotive. Of course Elon Musk ratio who all understand this truth. But at present, the Tesla in this domain, and in a very long period of time can not find the real competitors.

The following is a comparison chart of ---85kwh more accurately and other models. As a luxury car buyers, usually a day will not drive more than 400 kilometers, each month will not be a long drive travel. There is no doubt, Tesla is a very good choice: consumers praise, advanced technology, the long-term cost saving and low maintenance etc..


View original image6, Europe, Europe, Asia Europe = > = > World

In a relatively small area, what is USA per capita driving mileage of national short a lot of selling a range of 400 km of the car, with oil prices or America two times stronger, people's awareness of environmental protection.

View original imageTesla had opened 13 outlets and repair centers in Europe, this figure will rise, while type S car customer predetermined has been manufactured and delivered in July, and Musk also has plans to station network in the European expansion super charge. I expected, S car in the EU's quarterly sales in 2015 will exceed the USA. Even if the demand to fall by 1/3, the sales will once again that "S car sales had peaked" theory is wrong, a lot of people don't realize - American and all over the world luxury car users may not have seen the Tesla Model S car.

Chinese, the world's largest car market, luxury car sales increased by 20% from 2011 to 2012. Because of the heavy use of coal, Chinese City air quality is one of the world's poor. In a strong appeal to many experts and the public, China government has not taken in the past ten years of any effective action. (you may not know China actually have a lot of action, but estimates in their hearts feel the air becomes told not to take any action that is a word)

Record levels of air pollution related diseases in 2010 1200000 people died and related to environmental pollution, and finally forced the government to impose more stringent fuel economy standards. The recent policy for 35MPG (mile per gallon, miles per gallon) 2015 years to 2020 is required in 47MPG. This will also affect foreign automobile manufacturers, because their new models need to adapt to the demand of automobile power emissions regulations, and Tesla Model S car is no problem in this regard, whether existing models or future plans to launch vehicle, has zero tailpipe emissions and fuel consumption indicators is equivalent to 90 + MPG.

View original imageAt the same time, I should also note that one of the factors American sales Tesla in areas outside the good is not like American cars like that intermediaries in these places toss.

7, free of charge network is the key for the electric mode, will eventually disappear

Here are some facts about super charging network, as many analysts now do not know these

·120Kwh charging device can be 16 times faster than the speed of public charging pile has a range of 320 miles in 30 minutes to let the car.

·The Tesla user permanent free, most of the charging stations will be built by Elon Musk solar power, another company Solarcity.

·Tesla charging technology upgrade station is from the port to improve voltage and non replacement of equipment, the long term cost incurred is very small (since 2012 September since the charging station has been upgraded from 90Kwh to 120Kwh)

·Each of the charging station cost $300000, including solar roof, these charging stations will not or rarely make use of additional fee added to Tesla user.

·The current partners Daimler and Toyota or other vendors want to in the future pay per use case, Musk said, he would not let the Tesla users free use of the super charging station, this also means that the company will pay the fee to Tesla, and even help Tesla construction of charging station.

I also think that company, residential, commercial real estate developers, government agencies will also be developed in cooperation with Tesla super charging station to meet the charging requirement from employees or customers growing.

Citation: in 2013 June 24, CBLAssociates estate company and Tesla cooperation of five shopping malls across the charging station construction:Http://online.wsj.com/article/PR-CO-20130624-906676.html

View original imageReplace the battery

Replace the battery needs about 90 seconds, is filling in half the time. Tesla will be the first in Losangeles to San Francisco on highway and in Washington - New York - Boston the customer demand for places test battery replacement programme. Musk said only 50000000 -1 billion budget can be covered to the super charging station.

The long run, I think the battery replacement program is not necessary, most people in the long haul travel more willing to enjoy a free fast charging station, where they can eat, go to the Restroom etc, in addition, from the investment point of view, I don't think the battery replacement plan will affect the Tesla in short term even the long-term fund balance, when people gradually realize that the charge in the home more convenient, battery replacement programme will eventually disappear silently.

And perfect and improve the technology in the future will put the super the charging time nationwide shortened to less than 30 minutes, that is to say in the future, charging speed will be more and more close to or even more than the gas velocity.

8, Tesla's extremely low marketing cost

We all know that word of mouth is the best advertising. According to the research of global research company in Nelson shows, 92% people are more willing to accept advice from friends and family to make a purchase decision, rather than from any other form of advertising.

As Musk mentioned repeatedly, Tesla's best sales staff is its customers. Without a car company customers will like the Tesla users keep their own electric cars in the online publicity, if you go online to a circle, will find that there are tens of thousands of blogs in his description on the Tesla electric vehicle after feeling, there are tens of thousands of users or potential users and their self-control is dubbed "" advertisement "documentary" and so on, Tesla free enjoy customers for advertising. I would also like to point out, such as general and Ford auto giants in 2011 only in advertising spending more than $5000000000, most of them are expected by the end of this year this figure will rise.

Another striking about Tesla free advertising is all over the country numerous political and business celebrities have Tesla electric vehicle, the Metallica singer James Hatfield, to the Hollywood Morgan Freeman, Ben Affleck, Cammeron Diaz, Williams and so on Pharrell.

This free advertising is not just "a bunch of crazy liberals in the dissemination of their environmental protection idea". S type electric vehicle is luxurious and practical and has a superior performance, 1/4 test drive a car users become owners. If not in the test period saw two men of the deposit instead of buying S car, I will not believe this crazy data. I think now Tesla need to do, is to set up in the world of showrooms and service center, so that more people understand and test drive the car.

I also want to tell you one thing, the vast majority of the Tesla Roadster and S type of car owners eventually Tesla stock investors, this is amazing.

View original imageHttp://v.youku.com/v_show/id_XNTQwMTk4MjYw.html

Http://v.youku.com/v_show/id_XNTU4MDU0MTQ4.html

Next is the authors discuss the game America some state policies and partisan, will also be a vote in the White House signature Tesla direct to consumer sales example listed out, the author date is July 2nd, when the signature has been more than 73000, and voted in July 5th to the end of the day, Tesla has successfully raised 100000 signatures, a total of more than 110000. This shows that the USA even global consumers firmly support the Tesla from the car dealer direct to consumer sales, also described as customers, they are tired of the automobile dealers door selling and efficiency problems in their car dealers arrogant attitude and low. This is not to do more detailed, interested friends can see this article

Http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/a-bump-in-the-road-for-tesla/2013/06/13/03cb3988-d3a3-11e2-b05f-3ea3f0e7bb5a_story.html

9, bearish reason: electric vehicle is not as legendary so environmental protection

First of all, this thesis to Tesla's future success is very small, because from the point of view of "the meaning of green environmental protection" and the purchase of Tesla's customers account for only a few. If you drive this car, you know what I'm saying -- is this car 2 car really. Tesla's goal has been to do the best car and not just the best electric vehicle, so the vehicle type X next, third generation of electric vehicles and electric pickup the future will be like their predecessors S car as mainstream automotive world best car contender.

In addition, discuss the green field, no one is absolutely correct, because of the difficulty of all carbon footprint calculation of internal combustion engines and electric vehicles, oil from drilling, refining, and to process all over the world and the internal combustion engine and electric vehicle parts production of carbon and other factors is difficult to completely statistics (although the electric car parts less) than diesel locomotives

For this let us debate the pros and cons, and there are many articles to refute the other's point of view, the largest oil company STO contribution to write an article related the sponsorship of the Norway science and Technology University, the article link:Http://llewblog.squarespace.com/electric-cars/2012/10/11/the-truth-will-out.html

The article mentioned:

There is a people can not refuse the fact is - electric cars can help us to transition to alternative energy sources, which is to reduce the emission of carbon dioxide is helpful, because

·Some use sustainable energy or power plant clean energy is gradually replacing the thermal power plant, which further helps to reduce the carbon footprint of the electric vehicle.

·Super charging network 100% Tesla is used in sustainable energy, such as North America and Europe of geothermal energy.

·To improve the air quality, since there is no exhaust emissions, especially in the city area, electric vehicle can effectively decrease the inhalable particles.

·There have been many Tesla and other brands of electric vehicle owners to buy and solar panels installed in the home, which is very helpful for electric vehicles to reduce carbon footprint.

Therefore, from an investment perspective, Tesla's future success will not subject to the "electric vehicle whether environmental protection" this issue, I believe that both the generation or in the next generation Tesla electric vehicles, sales will grow exponentially, because there has been a growing number of drivers have been aware of the Tesla electric vehicle is a wonderful convincing products, whether from the fuel cost saving, maintenance, or from the driving experience and good after sale service, like this.

10, X type and S car car will share 60% of the market share, profitability will be significantly expanded

As shown in figure, Tesla please note the green part, which is the Tesla for your savings.



View original image11, the third generation of electric vehicles to the $32500 means cost-effective more than the Camry (USA and Europe)


View original imageMusk countless times to emphasize the characteristics of the third generation of electric vehicles: "third generation of electric vehicles is still in the design stage, he is S car is smaller, there will be at least 320 km endurance ability and it is not convenient to disclose to the advanced technology of all. Its performance will tell Audi A4 or BMW 3 series is similar, but not the Nissan leaf."

Toyota Prius was one of the 2012 best-selling car, as well as numerous Ford Fox and Toyota corolla, they are about 1 million global sales, and the same as the eco car Toyota Prius owners itself also has the demand for Tesla third generation car.

But let us see below, compared with competitors Tesla electric vehicle. If a successful third generation of electric vehicles like the Model S, then the price will make it easier at the same time and talent showing itself, competitors in contrast, in the medium-sized car level, electric cars in the maintenance, fuel saving, advantage will fast charging and long-distance travel is more obvious, so in the future consumers will obviously prefers to buy third generation of electric vehicles.

View original imageNow let's have a look the third generation electric vehicle compared with the world's best selling diesel locomotive

View original imageImagine a family to make the comparison decision before buying a car, the third generation electric vehicle monthly Tesla's savings and cash technology not only make it very attractive in this level, and even attract customers $20000 budget at this level. Imagine 08 years when the third generation Apple mobile phone, although there are cheaper Blackberry, Motorola, Nokia and so on, but many people still choose apple. This is not only the better performance, more beautiful appearance, but also very friendly, very cool.

Now I want you to imagine a European families will start looking to save $193 a month, you can save at least $27000 car ten years

There are more positive factors

·In 2012 America family fuel spending an average of $3000, nearly two times the above data, this is because of a family usually have two cars, so if you are for electric vehicle, the savings will be doubled.

·In some countries and regions, non peak hours of electricity costs will be cheaper than usual electricity costs, electricity costs so you can spend half to maintain vehicle daily commuting, as shown below.

·If you buy a Tesla electric vehicle, the cost will be reduced, because the super charged network is free

·The third generation electric vehicle data is based on estimation of vehicle type S 60Kwh version of the data, I think the third generation of electric vehicles because of size and quantity are small, the economy will be better than the data.

12, the third generation electric Tesla battery technology upgrade and federal tax credits

In April 26th, in a conference call, when asked about the future of battery improvement plan, Musk revealed the endurance of battery 800 km has been in the development stage and S car available for 4-5 years, the third generation of electric vehicles will enter mass production stage, and the existing and potential S type the owner and X owners can also choose to upgrade their battery which reached 800 kilometers mileage.

Panasonic, Tesla currently battery suppliers and shareholders, announced in June 12th that they would produce 100000000th NCR18650 batteries at the end of the month, which is approximately equal to the number of the 14640 S car battery, due to increased productivity rise and demand, Tesla battery order has a considerable discount.

A $7500 federal tax credit, I think it will remain unchanged. Even from 2016 began gradually reduce or even cancel, I think the wool interest rate changes will offset this factor brought by cell progress and cost reduction of profit.

13, the long term potential battery and electric vehicle drive system risk

Durability test through custom grade of the Tesla Model S Panasonic NCR18650 battery, we see even after the charge discharge cycle 2600 times, battery remain capacity by 70%. The 2600 loop is what concept, for S car 85Kwh, equivalent to 1120000 kilometers, for the vehicle type S version of the 60Kwh, the equivalent of 860000 kilometers mileage. But with lower technological progress and cost, the future for battery maintenance and for cell decay rate I quite at ease.

View original imageIn June 19th, Tesla conducted the first recall the model S, the recall is the Tesla had launched, recalled a small part of rear supporting rod may have strength of welding vehicle type S not enough, not like the traditional automobile manufacturers is the Tesla the recall is purely voluntary and points out its engineer products loopholes did not cause any vehicle and personnel injury, after the recall issue price not only, instead of falling up, which makes all the professionals have recommended this recall should be included into the Tesla's public relations professional course teaching.

And on the power transmission system, the electric car is never recall record or technical difficulties. From the general EV1 in 1994 to 2008 to the present has been running for five years of Tesla Roadster electric car, only a small amount of recall or fire report, by contrast, internal combustion engine vehicles since 2004 to now have 16000000 recall and fire records. You may feel a locomotive base is electric vehicles, but physics tells us, gasoline has a higher energy density than battery high many, in the event of a collision accident, gasoline is more dangerous.

A simple mechanical design and theory, at the same time component is much less electric locomotive recalls risk than the internal combustion engine is small, a diesel engine, gearbox, spark plug, valve, oil tank, distributor, starter, clutch, exhaust system, catalytic converters and other parts, and electric vehicle don't need.

14, governments, car rental companies, car sharing companies, bulk purchase commercial team

Fuel and maintenance costs substantially reduced, so that electric cars in the future can be widely used in government, enterprise, car rental companies, car sharing companies, as well as commercial car team. While most business team car can work during the day, after charging. This will give the Tesla third generation car in the field of civil and Tesla Model S car in the commercial sector constitutes a huge opportunity. At the same time, the government or the enterprises will invest to build super charging station, super charging station also logical can be built in the government the use of electric vehicles and the surrounding, in reducing the charging doubts and increasing the convenience of use. After all, the super charging station cost only 10 car third generation electric vehicle or 4 S car so much.

Governments around the world: one is American government owns more than 600000 cars every kind of car. operation and maintenance of these vehicles cost taxpayers $4200000000 a year, according to the general services administration. These cars are replaced by electric vehicles, will save huge amounts of fuel and maintenance expenses, which are very attractive for the government.

View original imageThe car rental and car sharing companies: the traditional internal combustion engine vehicle business model the company annually in fuel and maintenance costs based on how many? If you can save a lot of money from this aspect, it is undoubtedly to the more competitive industry.

View original imageCompany car: a business around the world spend a year in fuel and maintenance costs a lot, but they also have to reduce carbon emissions to improve their "green" image". For example, WAL-MART, Google and America military, they are becoming SolarCity three customers. If you see in the near future super charging Tesla station was built next to their office is, please don't be surprised.


View original image15, the skeptic: "third generation of electric vehicles on the S type and X type sales impact"

Some analysts, including Jim Kramer, think even Tesla in future succeeded in producing a $30000 third generation of electric vehicles, the low cost electric vehicles will be "nibble" type S and type X market share, it is like saying the BMW 3 series will "eat" BMW 5 of the market share, Audi A4 will "nibble" Audi A6 market share.

Later, Cramer in July last year also sell Tesla in a $30 stock, it is a miss 230% profit. I bet that he will be wrong again.

16, Tesla service center expansion and Tesla service "the halo effect"

I always think that Tesla service center expansion is more important than Tesla store expansion, because most of the car buyers are reluctant to buy a car without service centers around the car. Musk also has been think so. Tesla is expected in late 2013 to double the number of its service center, including the Middle East, the move should let many existing and potential customers to be assured.

Is not afraid of deep alley, in addition to the existing Tesla customers gradually becomes Tesla's publicist, there will be an unquantifiable but very important factor, Tesla's service and warranty program is amazing.

·During a fault or warranty occur in your car, the highest with S car or the highest with Roadster roadster will be delivered to your door free become your new means of transport

·Added a $600 annual service plan options, but does not affect the original warranty program

·S car battery unconditional warranty, even if the user error

Finally, Musk also ensure Tesla service center will not be profitable, in this way to urge them to provide the best and the longest continuous service. Through this type of service, customers are reluctant to go.

17, Tesla's brilliant product strategy: pay close attention to a few products / and pay attention to the optional products

These two points are not quantifiable, but smart investors know how important this is for a brand, they will contribute to the future success of tesla. For comparison, I listed 4 product line, Apple's focus on improving the Mac computer, iPod, iPhone and iPad, these four products has become one of the most profitable company in the world.

Note, iPhone helped Apple profits soared, and later helped another high profit rate of the product, iPad.


View original imageThe optional products can see every detail from the Tesla, which can reduce the risk, and maximize the space of the future is very helpful. Here are some examples:

·17 "screen is essentially a central control unit, and not just an information and entertainment system, apart from the web browser, global positioning system, HD rearview mirror and other uses mechanical function, most of the cars, including driving mode, the suspension height, roof, headlamps, here can control. Even better, all of these functions can be WiFi upgrade, which will also help to minimize the risk of future Tesla in recall, while increasing the availability of software.

·The battery can be replaced.

·The design of the super charging station so that it can be upgraded to higher voltage, without changing the whole charging pile.

·Tesla battery packaging strategy is to employ multiple battery supplier battery (not only Panasonic). On the other hand, Panasonic is the Tesla investors, so they are more willing to grow up with a successful.

View original image18, to Toyota, Mercedes Benz and future partners to sell the transmission system

It is difficult to predict the progress and product cooperation present success, not to mention the future. However, with the Tesla from the battery to the charging station great technical advantage so that we can easily draw a conclusion: if Toyota, Mercedes Benz and other partners in the future projects and products successfully, Tesla will get huge profits, it is to have zero risk technology provider.

19, Tesla, SolarCity and SpaceX current and future cooperation

Imagine you are the chairman of the CEO companies and third companies, but also in the three companies more than anyone. At the same time, these companies have in the world the best workers team of engineers, each day in solving some of the world's most intractable problems. Ask what challenge more than this.

SpaceX and Tesla has the common use of the lithium ion battery the package in the Falcon 9 rocket, the Dragon spacecraft, as well as the Tesla Model S car, Tesla began to provide 8 Kwh battery pack to the SolarCity, recently at the same time, SolarCity began in 2012, but also for the construction of super charged network tesla. Within two years, SolarCity hopes to introduce a device comprises a solar panel battery from Tesla, let the energy storage device during the day, night power supply.

Such cooperation is undoubtedly the three companies are favorable, including technical improvement, cost reduction and so on.

The possibility of 20 Tesla was taken over, close to zero

Tesla currently valued at more than $10000000000, with profits and stock prices continue to rise, the possibility will eventually become zero. In addition, Musk repeatedly confirmed that he will not leave or sell Tesla, until he reached his goal so far - electric cars become a mainstream. Toyota, Mercedes Benz, Panasonic and institutional investors share together, but also like Musk ownership is almost, so I don't worry about Tesla will be acquired, but even if the takeover happens, investors will also get a handsome premium.

Tesla Motors extraordinary leadership and team management

Legendary investors on their own investment companies need to have a stable management team and long-term and the company together. Yes, Tesla has a management team, they and Tesla has gone through ten years of wind and rain

They are:

ELONMUSK
The chairman and chief executive officer, product architect

Don't need too much introduction, Elon Musk is an extremely rare genius engineer and businessman with. For those who claim that Musk is just a beautiful CEO, like hold a grand program to attract investors. I advised him to listen to every project details, Musk explains Tesla, SpaceXSolarCity and early Paypal technology. Or to visit his office, an open, but very simple office.

We often only see Musk today's success, but did not see him go through a very painful period and Tesla and SpaceX company, especially during the financial crisis, when he had to borrow money to pay his rent. He also repeatedly said, he will not give up or sell Tesla, until the successful implementation of large-scale production, forget him in a shareholders meeting to say to do: as my money would be the first to come in, it will be the last one out."

JB STRAUBEL
Chief technology officer

He is the chief technology officer and co-founder of Volacom , he designed electric vehicle using a small power generation devices, electric Porsche he made 944 has remained the world's fastest car game record.

GILBERTPASSIN
Vice chairman, the manufacturing director

Some of you may remember the National Geographic documentary super factory he. He led many well-known manufacturers of production department, he is absolutely Tesla to expand production the ideal candidate.

FRANZVON HOLZHAUSEN
Chief designer

His design resume including the Pontiac Solstice, Saturn sky, Opel GT, Mazda RX-8. The Tesla Model S cars and X cars also written by him.



View original imageConclusion:

View original image

"If I ask people, what they want, they will say I am a faster horse."
Henry Ford

"People don't know what they want, until you show it to them."
Steve Jobs

Whether now or in the future, there will be a lot of electric car opponents claimed that they would not buy electric cars, electric cars are bad in their lifetime, electric cars do not environmental protection etc..

But in any case, in the negative or short Tesla before, you'd better go to take it for a test drive the car, at least to read or watch users blog or upload a video.

I think that like the Tesla investment, will only serve the "loyal long-term holders" rather than "speculators", because the product is There was no parallel in history., and technology update cannot be predicted

Author: Sal Demir



The original link:Http://seekingalpha.com/article/1381001-tesla-motors-full-analysis-its-only-mistake-outlook-and-elon-musk
Http://seekingalpha.com/article/1532842-tesla-motors-full-analysis-2-0