Analysis of Shanghai automobile group Limited by Share Ltd securities investment

 

A,Company introduction

    The Shanghai stock exchange in Shanghai automobile,The predecessor is the Shanghai automobile Limited by Share Ltd, Ltd. by Shanghai auto industry(Group)Corporation in1997Years11Month initiated the establishment of an exclusive, beginning with its net assets into state shares70000Million shares, the1997Years11Month7Days after issuance, listing the total share capital of100000Million shares, its internal staff shares3000Million shares to the public shares27000Million shares1997Years11Month25Day trading in Shanghai for half a year after the listing expires,Stock codeFor the600104.2006Years after the reorganization, Shanghai automobile has become the current domesticAStock marketThe biggest vehicleListing Corporation,End2009Years12Month31Day, the company's total share capital65.5Million shares, the total consolidated assets1381.6Billion yuan, staff a total of more than65000At present, company controlling shareholderShanghai automotive industry (Group) Corporation.

 

Two,The macro environment analysis

 

The macro environment is the basis for enterprise survival,A correct grasp of the macro environment will not only affect the enterpriseThe general problem of development,Is affecting the strategy of enterprise development direction.

(a)Political environment analysis

1A small car ban.2006Years1On the national development and Reform Commission and other six departments jointly issued a notice,Asked to cancel all the energy saving and environmental protectionType of small cars driving routes and taxi operators and other aspects of the limit.This directly promoted the development of small carsSale,In the2006The first quarter of this year,The Chery and other manufacturers have achieved good sales,In February, CherySales reached more than 20000,In the passenger car market for the first time over the FAW Volkswagen.The local car enterprisesWords,There are small cars experience,Can make full use of various resources, including government,In cost controlThere are certain advantages.

2 The support of the state industrial policy.Car as a capital intensive and technology intensive industry,A powerful driving force for the national economy,AsAs one of the pillar industries of the national focus on the development of,Put a lot of property,For more than twenty years of reform and opening upDevelopment,A number of state-owned and private automobile enterprises have formed a certain scale,Also accumulated a certain amount of talent andExperience,A good foundation for the development of the next step of the play.

3The national strategy of independent innovation.In eleven of five planned independent innovation as a national strategy put forward,As the development of the automobile industry Chinese indicatedDirection.Since the reform and opening up,The joint venture and the introduction of the China feed one's sight on the automobile industry.Through the digestion and absorption,In product quality,The level of production management,Equipment improvement,The cultivation of talents are greatly improved,Accumulation and mastered some of the world automobile manufacturing level synchronization or close to experience,For the domestic each big car setGroup of independent innovation has laid a good foundation;At the same time,China automobile enterprises can throughout the global vehicle,Spare partsManufacturing giant to select partners,The high level station started in the giant's shoulders.China's auto industry is facingTransformation of the second major,Let more energy,More environmentally friendly cars into the China family is China's automobile industryThe development trend of the future.Around this goal,Various related to automobile consumption policy is being adjusted,This is also theIs the domestic automobile enterprises to engage in independent innovation requires the use of advantage of backwardness.

4Construction of roads and other public facilities is national investment focus.Eleven five national planning put into1000Billion to accelerate rural highway construction,Eleven at the end of the five basicIn all the villages and towns,East Central all conditions of villages formed asphalt or cement road,The western region ofPresent conditions formed Village Road.And focus on the construction of the National Expressway Network,The basic formation of the national high speedRoad network skeleton.Continue to improve the State Highway,Provincial Trunk Highway Network,Through the inter provincial channels,Play network integrationEfficiency.Highway mileage230Million kilometers,The expressway6.5Million kilometers.The highway networkDevelopment and improve the promotion of expanding auto market.5Other policies of the state.To encourage car homebred change rate,The implementation of the new consumption tax,To promote the healthy development of automobile consumption.RelevantPolicy papers "passenger vehicle fuel consumption limits""Automobile industry promotion plan""The second-hand car market management officeMethod ""Auto industry"Eleven five"Development plan outline "etc..These policy support to some extent and stability of the SAICGroupThe domestic market,Is conducive to the international warSlightly push.

(Two).Economic environment analysis 

1.Gross domestic productAnd its growth rate In our country after the reform and opening upGross domestic productHas maintained a steady and rapid growth.Because of the impact of the financial crisis,2008Years in our countryGross domestic productDrop to single digits,Academy of social sciences on09Years ofGross domestic productIs expected to8%About.The concrete will reach a what kind of value,From the international and domestic double factors.The first is the international factors,From the American started spreading financial crisis will not be worse?The second is the Chinese government to expand domestic demandA series of economic policies to achieve the degree.But no matter how,The macro environment of the downturn that has mediumThis becomes a reality.Macro economic downturn is bound to the development of automobile industry adversely,Also the inevitableRing upGroupDevelopment.

2 Present situation and development of car people the income of urban and rural population From the nationwide situation2003China's per capitaGross domestic productHas been reached1000The dollar,Residents consumption structureFrom a million to10Million grade transition,The main consumer is the car,Housing and communication,Education etc..Along with the growth of the economy,It can be expected that the purchasing power of residents will also continue to strengthen.The main consumption into the wave styleExpansion.With the improvement of the degree of Marketization,Endogenous economic growth,Enhancing the stability of,Domestic demand will be further expanded,Consumption policy,Consumption system,The consumption environment will be further improved,ThisSome will bring great potential for automobile consumption growth.

3Market internationalization China's auto industry is facing the huge global market.2005Global car sales4000Million,And Chinese export car only17Million,In the international market share of less,The State encourages the vehicle in ChinaAutomobile enterprises to go out.With the auto market increasingly open,China's auto industry is in a positive attitude meltIn the international market.As one of China's largest automobile group, SAIC,To better develop the international market.But because of the global automotive market downturn,Especially America Detroit car company crisis,MakeThe rapid growth of the Chinese market has a crucial role in the process of each big car company future development,In theThe market competition is the focus of global competition,Companies to speed up the launch of new products and new models in the ChineseSpeed.This is our country's automobile industry and SAIC presents great challenges.

4The development of the capital market The development of the capital market and continuous improvement,Possible sources of the automobile enterprises have more money.No.Small enterprises seeking listing and financing,Foreign investment also increase Chinese Market.In the international automobile market,The automobile industryThe group unanimously optimistic about China car market prospects,Have a global strategy from their point of view,In theBased Chinese market strategy layout,Actively,Accelerate the start of effective entry and competitive strategy.Dongfeng and Nissan,FAW and mass,The brilliance and the BMW,GM and SAIC,Changan and Ford joint venture and etc.Cooperation is like a raging fire spread.

5.Auto credit is backward China's current car buyers are mostly cash,The developed country automobile sales70%On credit sale,The proportion of China's problems20%Auto finance companies and domestic financial institutions to the slow development of automobile credit,A partyNoodles,Financial institutions in the automobile consumption credit bad debt rate as high as40%.Because of the personal credit system is notPerfect,The prescribed proportion of commercial vehicle loans Shoufu not less than30%.The proportion of car Shoufu not less than20%.The termShall not exceed five years,The inhibition of the consumer's ability to pay.On the other hand,State approval of the automobile financeThe company is either foreign or joint venture,This makes the domestic automobile enterprises in this field and disadvantage backwardPosition.Therefore,SAIC should by virtue of its state-owned enterprises and joint venture advantage,To expand the scale of development.

6Energy supply and prices Fossil fuel energy supply has become the main challenge facing our country:Over reliance on fossil fuels,The resourcesPressure sustainable supply.China's per capita energy recoverable reserves far below the world average,Per capita oilCoal reserves of only about2.6Tons,Per capita recoverable reserves of natural gas1074Cubic metre,Recoverable reserves of coal per capita90Tons,Respectively, of the world average11.1% 4.3%And55.4%While the energy structure present in fossilFuel as the dominant,The sustainable supply of energy caused by pressure.In the long run,Oil shortage will becomeOne of the main issues in automobile industry must face.

7The price of steel and its influence on the auto industry 08Years of various steel prices have appeared in major fluctuations,Get into09Years,Along with our country investment and infrastructureThe increased scale,A substantial increase in demand for iron and steel,China's steel production will increase further.ButAffected by the world economic slowdown,The implementation of energy-saving emission reduction measures,Explosion causes the iron ore industry investmentRing,The international iron ore prices in09Years will remain basically stable,Even a slight drop.This dual factorsInfluence09Steel prices will not fluctuate drastically.Specific price regulation policy to national strengthSet.The car as the big consumer of iron and steel industry,Price stability is crucial to maintain the cost.

8The supply and demand of automobile tire cost of rubber products Natural rubber consumption is the biggest automobile industry(About natural rubber consumption65%.ItThe development is directly related to the tire production,Thus affecting tire prices.Supply and demand situation is the impact of natural rubberThe most fundamental factor rubber futures prices.Along with the continuous development of synthetic rubber industry,Its price is also more and moreCompetitive.When natural rubber supply or prices rise,Many manufacturers choose to use synthetic rubberGlue,Their complementarity will be more and more strong.At the same time,As the synthetic rubber belongs to petrochemical products,Natural andHowever,By its upstream product prices--The impact of oil.As a matter of fact,The oil price has been fluctuatingThe,Therefore,Oil price fluctuations will be affected by the price of synthetic rubber and the effect on natural rubber priceLattice. 

(Three).Technology analysis 

1The development of Automotive Technology The car speed up the upgrading of products,Influence on people's life more,Other new and high technology is notApplication of fault,"Automotive electronics"Hot emerging.High tech industry automobile steering,New energy,The newMaterial Science,New technology,Extensive application of new technology to make thoroughly to remould oneself changes will occur in automobile industry,Rare earth alloy,Application of electronic navigation and control automation,And hybrid cars to Chinese automobile enterprisesIndependent innovation brings more opportunities.

2Insufficient capital investment,The weak R & D capability,Lack of core technology Product development of automobile industry investment,Backward,The data is accumulated little,Lacking experience in the development of talent,The truck product development system has not yet formed a high level of,It does not have the independent development ability of car products.Foreign gasolineThe technology development costs, car enterprises annual investment accounted for annual sales3%5%,The amount of up to hundreds of millions or even billions ofThe dollar2002Years Ford R & D spending72Billion dollars,General54Billion dollars,TOYOTA46Billion dollars,And IIn a number of key enterprises the proportion not to1%Total investment and foreign gap bigger,That carProduct varieties less,The backward technology,Can not meet the demand of the market.Parts industry also is lack of countryThe international competitiveness of products.It is necessary for our automobile industry to increase investment in scientific research,To master the core technology.

 3The problem of technology standard Because China enterprises R & D capability is weak,As the subsequent developers involved in many problems of patent.In the light ofHybrid electric vehicle standards formulated by the government,Is that too much reference to the Toyota standard,Is not conducive to their mixedThe development of hybrid vehicle.Facts prove the,Even if the design must also master the core technology capability building in frontMention.Toyota had to China enterprises put forward the appearance of patent infringement litigation.

4Effects of international technology The world automobile industry is pregnant with a power system technology,To fully understand the development of newThe significance of a generation of automotive power system,Strengthen the independent innovation of a new generation of Automotive Technology.This is the onlyLike,To make China automobile industry in foreign countries to a new generation of automotive technology become mature when no longer behind.

(Four).Analysis of the social cultural environment 

1Roads and parking problems ByIn the cityCity road length and area of the growth rate lower than the amount of the increase speed and traffic vehicleThe low level of management,The road network structure and the unreasonable structure of passenger and freight transport,Some large city trafficEven worse,And highway traffic volume,Low density,Poor quality,Insufficient traffic capacity.In the cityConstruction can not well balanced car facilities,Parking is difficult in parts of the city,Performance for the parking facilitiesLack of,Backward management,The side is insufficient parking utilization,On one side is disorderly Zhandao phenomenon is serious.

2Personal consumption era,That car customization Era Survey, 30~45The emerging knowledge managers or professionals in high-end car consumptionMain force,Pay more attention to brand quality and unique taste,The high-end car consumption culture will also tend to be more countryInternational,Individuation and diversification.A practical survey,These traits can be in different consumers into different individual needs.

3Influence of national culture on the independent brand If China automobile industry can create"Support the domestic car,Growing power of independent brand"LoveCountry culture,Firmly grasp the national plot psychological Chinese consumers,The performance will be incalculable.

4Consumer brand loyalty is low,Price sensitive,Follow the trend of consumption Most of the people are for the first time to buy,The low brand awareness,About half of the people on the basis of family and friendsSee.Consumers need to manufacturers and distribution tours provide more services and support.Comparison of consumption to make independent productCard does not have the foreign brands in this area the advantage of reputation.

5 Existence of local protectionism part Now the important provinces and cities have their own car manufacturing factory,Can not avoid in employment and economic development under pressureLocal protectionism from the presence or bright or dark.In general,Politics,Economic aspects of the environmental pressure to promote the SAICGroupInternationalization strategy,In general,Politics,Economic aspects of the environmental pressure to promote the SAICGroupInternationalization strategy,The sameThe favorable conditions of new energy development and give SAIC great attraction.The favorable conditions of new energy development and give SAIC great attraction.The negative influence of economy and theRequirements for automobile policies promulgated and vehicle technology and the SAICGroupThe development of the greaterDekaron.

 

Three,The internal environment analysis

 

1,Financial capacity analysis

Name	The main business income	The share of profits	The main revenue growth rate	After tax profit growth rate	The rate of assets and liabilities
The main company FAW car	2024545.6624Million yuan	0.6700	48.6700%	96.7000%	34.6600%
Two main company  Shanghai automobile	10540559.401Million yuan	0.1000	1.2700%	-85.8400%	64.2700%
Three main company  Dongfeng Automobile	1243149.6586Million yuan	0.1577	-7.1800%	-35.5300%	47.5800%
Four main company Futian Automobile	3006983.1806Million yuan	0.4000	7.9100%	-10.9300%	69.3800%
Five main company  Changan automobile	1337545.8431Million yuan	0.0100	-2.5300%	-96.3400%	49.8300%
Industry average	3630556.7490Million yuan	0.2675	9.6280%	-26.3880%	53.1440%
The company Shanghai automobile	10540559.401Million yuan	0.1000	1.2700%	-85.8400%	64.2700%

The company's market share is rising, the profit rate is declining, although many competitors also decreased, but compared to rivals fall faster, and this year 08 the overall market downturn.

2The core competitiveness of the company. Performance is as follows:

1Focus on the development of car

2Parts synchronous development
Shanghai automotive industry adhere to the vehicle and parts planning, investment, compared to the same period synchronous development, formed a relatively complete parts production system. From the domestic to the joint development.

3 The implementation of the strategy of Globalization

In order to adapt to the global economic integration, SAIC, strengthen with the world famous automobile companies, the implementation of "bringing in and going out" strategies.

 

4The introduction of Buick, Passat

5The development of multi products

　　1.A joint venture with the Volvo company established Shanghai sunwin Bus Co. Ltd. will produce new high-grade buses.

　　2.A joint venture with Italy's Fiat Group Case New Holland Global Limited established Shanghai new Holland cheerful agriculture machinery corp, will accelerate the development of tractor.

3.XF150-2 type motorcycle new development Shanghai happiness motorcycle factory.

To explore the management innovation

 

6Exploration of lean production and lean management, lean management.

1.Learning to promote Shanghai Yichu Universal Machinery Co Ltd "everybody to become the 'operator'" management innovation mode effectively into the fruit.

2.In order to adapt the world auto parts development trend, establish six parts: dynamic system, chassis system, air conditioning system, interior lighting system, electronic system, forging and heat processing system.

 

The company's main business:Vehicle (including passenger cars, commercial vehicles), and the vehicle development closely related parts (including powertrain, chassis, electrical and electronic) R & D, production, sales, and is closely associated with the automobile business in auto finance

 

 

The core of the company's products:Oil electric and pure electric drive system

The core technology:Oil electric and pure electric drive system technology

Core service:The automobile financial service

Associated with the main business.

 

 

 

3. main business value chain of the company

Enterprise infrastructure	Lee     Run
	Recruitment and training		Recruitment
The development of senior, intermediate,RVResearch, compact and small car vehicle models	Electric air conditioning and heat management	The independent brand new products	New energy automobile	Spare parts(Including powertrain, chassis, electrical and electronic)Research and development
Auto parts
Into the material management Into the material check	Joint venture brands and brand Self control, self innovation	The vehicle factory inspection (acceptance), "VCA" export free certification "; Yizheng, port two production bases are" ISO/TS16949:2002Quality management system certification"		All over the country31Provinces and cities200Several4SStrong customer service service network shop		Lee     Run

Four, technical analysis                      

 

    With the stock market decline continued, Shanghai Automotive (600104Although the growth of high),But the core sales growth decline:11Monthly sales year-on-year growth rate13.2%The year-on-year growth, increased, the company11Car sales month35.94Million, year-on-year growth13.2%.2011Years1-11Total auto sales company368.19Million, accumulated year-on-year growth for11.91%. While industry1-10Monthly auto sales growth averaged3.47%Company sales growth rate, far higher than the industry average,11Monthly sales growth link up2.3A percentage point. Growth is high, but the core sales growth rate declined, ascending from the cross type passenger car. Shanghai automobile two core passenger vehicle company and Shanghai Volkswagen, Shanghai GM and the independent brand in Shanghai general growth increases, the rest showed growth fell faster.11Shanghai Volkswagen and Shanghai GM sales were10.09Million,11.62Million, an increase of respectively1.67%,9.18%. Three passenger car vehicle factory11Month cumulative sales of vehicles22.99Million, an increase of only4.05%.2011Years1-11Sales totaled car Shanghai Volkswagen and Shanghai GM106.09Million,115.10Million vehicles, cumulative yoy growth156%.

 

From the2011Years12Month14DayInterceptKLine chart can be seen, the stockWeak trend, the market outlook may be weak rebound; cost15.38Yuan, price below the cost, although the rebound, in the long-term is not good, a small amount of participation.2011.12.08Closed13.59Element,Price range1.95%.Turnover rate0.29%.Gen5Day high,VolumeFor the 250279.97 hand, compared with the previous trading day Variable1852141%, a record 5DayThe newHigh.

    Shanghai automobile600104.Shanghai benefit from the public,Shanghai GM and SAIC GM Wuling joint venture brand sales11Monthly production and sales were37.64Million and35.94Million,Year-on-year growth12.27%And13.26%While the quantity of produce and sale of other company's is in a state of negative growth..The personage inside course of study says,Last year, in effect under the policies of the last bus,Production and sales of high base,Led to the production and sales year-on-year growth rate is low,It is expected that the situation in12The month will continue.

     Following the Guangdong Foshan after,Volkswagen will soon stretched to the northwest of Xinjiang.Volkswagen of XinjiangFactory is located"Northwest of automobile manufacturing and assembly base",Passenger car production to fill the blank in the region.The public thinks,In the country19Vigorously promote the provinces and cities under the assistance policy,Xinjiang economy may appear explosive growth,The prospect of Xinjiang investment in the auto industry wide.The central and western regions has a huge potential consumer market,In the central and western construction is a forward-looking, strategic decision.In addition to this,Xinjiang West and Kazakhstan,Tajikistan,Kyrgyzstan,India,Bordering Afghanistan and Pakistan,The north and the adjacent to Russia and Mongolia,With the development of automobile trade advantage be richly endowed by nature..

Volkswagen1~10Month cumulative global sales680Million.Among them,The Asia Pacific market10Months of total sales215Million,Continue to maintain growth momentum.Chinese occupy Volkswagen global sales market share27.79%.The Asia Pacific Region88%.Cumulative sales for189Million,Among them,FAW Volkswagen sales81Million,Shanghai Volkswagen82Million,The cumulative increase respectively15.42%And12.48%The latest sales figures show,Shanghai Volkswagen1~11Monthly cumulative sales break million,Rose13.7%.Beyond2010The total sales of the year.It is due to occupy nearly28%The share of sales,Chinese market has become the largest single country market Volkswagen and attracted the attention of.2012~2016Years,Volkswagen and FAW and SAIC setGroupJoint investment140Billion investment,Put into production base,The expansion of production capacity construction and new product development,Called the biggest investment in the history of the development of German cars.Volkswagen currently has mass,Audi,SKODA,Siaat,Bentley,Lamborghini,Porsche Bugatti and other passenger car brand.With the final northwest base,Volkswagen in China's industrial layout basically completed.Volkswagen FAW and SAIC will rely on the two partners,With offices in the Northeast,East China,Southern China,The southwest and northwest of the production base,The formation of more dense manufacturing and sales service network. 

The securities market is the risk of direct exchange place. Securities isIncome rightThe representative, and it is the representative of a certain risk. Exchange of securities in the transfer of certainIncome rightAt the same time, also to the unique risk transfer out of securities. So, the analysis from the angle of risk, the direct exchange of stock market is risk.Through the purchase of Shanghai automobile (600104)This stock can understand the volatility of the stock market is very large, it will cost you a lot of time and energy. Therefore, we must bear in mind: the stock is a risk, market to be cautious.