The future trend of development China car

The future of the world's second largest auto market

The first aspect in the overall market China car, at least in the next few years, until 2015, with China gross domestic product (GDP) is expected to average annual rate of 8% to 9% growth, brought about an increase in wealth, so the demand for cars will also rise, according to our prediction by 2015, sales, car of the year Chinese will exceed 10000000 units. This increase will make Chinese quickly became the world's second largest auto market, this scale will Chinese automobile market in many countries around the world automobile manufacturers (VM), have a direct impact on the fate of the supplier.

China market is likely to appear in a stage production overcapacity, this situation is caused by the government's policy -- because the government hopes to regulate through a variety of policy leverage to demand growth; on the other hand, the vehicle manufacturers and suppliers of this fast-growing market has long coveted, continue to spend money. In this process, in order to seize more market share, vehicle manufacturers are likely to continue to shorten the cycle of new product development, which will further stimulate demand growth.

The second is in the policy environment, the government will continue to Chinese according to its commitment to the development of WTO on the domestic automotive industry regulated balance. At the beginning of 2005 the development of automotive speed slow down, which further proved that this area is still largely under the government's macro regulation and control, the two aspects of supply and demand the government needs to be controlled by policy leverage. The following are some government is using and / or may consider control needs to use leverage: including tighter loan (such as the prohibition of four major state-owned banks provide auto loans); the introduction of fuel tax; tariff and non-tariff barriers; and the increase of franchise fees etc.. The government also through more of the automobile supply management investment measures to cool the upstream capacity investment control strictly.

However, in 2010 the government work objectives (i.e. the Eleventh Five Year Plan) is to build a mature, globally competitive auto industry in the China, make it become one of the pillar industries China before 2010. At the same time, the automotive industry must also complete another task, is to make the fuel efficiency is 15% higher than the 2003 level or higher. In order to complete the task, China has the initiative, developing cheap, fuel-efficient cars, hybrid energy, hydrogen, and / or existing new technology development process.

Third, product and market, at present Chinese market is still dominated by foreign brands and foreign enterprises and domestic enterprises set up joint venture brand. We expected in the next ten years, local and foreign vehicle manufacturers will part company each going his own way, gradually formed their own brand.

Chinese major vehicle manufacturers will have their own research and development platform, at least to develop entry-level customers and mass market as the goal of the China own brand in the beginning. Some joint venture brands will even be split, so that the parties may seek their own development without any burden. China vehicle manufacturers may go farther, specifically for the emerging markets in Eastern Europe, Southeast Asia and India and all over the world tailored a car, and finally to the quality, safety and reliability, and Korean carmakers similar or lower price positioning to the world.

We expect in 2015, at least one Chinese vehicle manufacturers will gradually into the luxury or sub luxury car market segment, while the South Korean and Japanese carmakers are used for close to fifty years and thirty years to reach the stage of product development of similar.

Fourth aspects of manufacturing and assembly. Because after large investments in recent years, at the beginning of the increasingly mature, by the consumer driven market environment, some in the Chinese operating vehicle manufacturers are facing overcapacity, price and profit rate and other aspects of the pressure - this is the past too optimistic, blindly increase capacity of fruit.

We expect, the vehicle manufacturers will seek to have manufacturing and procurement capacity of competition, in the global scope for cost leadership, more involved in all aspects of the entire value chain, get more economic benefit in the entire value chain. In the next ten years, we are likely to witness a vibrant industry structure gradually formed: many vehicle manufacturers will try to through mergers, acquisitions of smaller China vehicle manufacturers, and even its foreign partners share, to achieve greater scale and product richness. At present, the general view is that, before 2015, the market will be consolidated into three or four vehicle to vehicle manufacturers, plus a few exceptional market space manufacturers.

Fifth, spare parts supply. At present, in order to better serve customers China domestic automobile manufacturers, many vendors continue to import large quantities of spare parts and production on a smaller scale. However, after the integration of the first layer of vehicle manufacturers, suppliers will also be further integration in order to scale, higher profit margins, and ultimately to achieve world-class cost competitiveness. The supplier has research and development, supply chain and the ability to export will have the ability to put their business to a new level.

By making full use of the Chinese domestic market scale, competition in terms of price, the supplier will eventually achieve the above goal, they can also use the low cost technology and production, the parts with high cost efficiency sold to overseas markets.

Finally, an important aspect is the brand, sales, and customer service market, with customers get cheap products and services price rising vehicle manufacturers and dealers will face from the marketing, sales and service aspects of the challenge of considerable. With the continuous expansion of products on the market, brand and marketing work will become more important, vehicle manufacturers will have to establish its brand, enhance the product status, promote product differentiation in marketing work put in more funds.

We expect, by strengthening its brand position, vehicle manufacturers will be through the restructuring and equity dealers in the sale of the product process to play a more active role. The focus of the work is to improve the overall standard of its dealer network reached close to the markets of developed countries standards. In order to win new clients, vehicle manufacturers will increase the coverage of its sales network, so that each shop investment costs will increase per dealer sales will remain at a low level, the rate of profit management will they must solve a major challenge.

On the other hand, second-hand car market will flourish, and promote Chinese economic underdeveloped regions car sales. In the value chain of the downstream end, the vehicle manufacturers or other independent enterprise is likely to start the life cycle of automotive management, what be these second-hand car from one city and two city sales to three class city, eventually improve the overall rate of car ownership, and shorten the main market in new car purchase cycle. In order to meet the increasingly rich Chinese consumers growing and complex needs, through the world first-class brand sales network, components, accessories and accessories sales will also be rapid development evolution.

The trend and the "inflection point"

The outlook for 2015 after the market, we anticipate five "reasonable extension of development" and four "inflection point".

The key to the small vehicle shift: the passenger car market has begun to significantly bias in small cars, this trend is difficult to fundamentally change. Development increased, the capacity to pay of individual consumers and sales from institutional clients tended to individual customer trends will continue to promote small cars.

While the oil shortage situation will be energy-saving work to bring more tremendous pressure, which will accelerate the development of energy-saving cars. Because the automobile fuel consumption accounted for the total consumption of 1/3 Chinese, so to take this step is very necessary.

For the low cost leadership: foreign and domestic enterprises to continue to inject funds in the automobile industry, which will result in a stage production overcapacity.

Vehicle manufacturers will continue to increase vehicle richness, to maintain, increase their market share. For example, by failing to update models, in recent years, rapid decline in Chinese market share, this is a lesson for other companies.

New car prices will continue to fall, which will further stimulate demand. However, if the vehicle manufacturers not every year will reduce the cost of around 8%, the increase in sales will not offset the lower prices, they are likely to face the long-term losses.

Parts is the main source of automobile cost: Although China labor cost is very low, but the cost of manufacturing Chinese sometimes even more than the world first-class level of about 20%, so Chinese part cost has been high.

At present, the market is still in the state of auto parts Chinese scattered, small scale, ten parts enterprises have only 20% market share. With the integration of parts of the market, the vehicle manufacturers will be realized in the procurement process without sacrificing quality to save cost, as it is possible to achieve real cost reduction. In spite of the China of procurement efforts will continue to increase, the relative gravity compared with Eastern Europe China as well as other parts of Asia will continue according to different products and decide, this will make the vehicle enterprises continue to purchase products categories of decision making.

The rapid integration of automobile manufacturing and supply chain: in driving car parts and assembly units continue to reduce costs, competition is becoming increasingly fierce and other factors, the global automobile manufacturers will be through with the big three automakers (FAW Group, SAIC, and Dongfeng Automobile) other than the smaller vehicle manufacturer formed joint ventures continue to compete for the position in the market.

The vehicle manufacturing although still highly dispersed, but by 2015, vehicle manufacturers may still have merged into three to four vehicle manufacturers and a few special market segmentation within the vehicle manufacturer. Vehicle manufacturers dozens of smaller existing will be difficult to achieve economies of scale, will eventually be out of the market.

In the face of marketing and sales challenge: although consumers are still in the process of the formation of China brand preference, compared with the global standard, China consumer brand loyalty is low. Therefore, the vehicle manufacturers need to invest a lot of money to establish and strengthen its brand position. Although brand awareness and brand preference will ultimately affect the purchasing decisions of consumers, in the foreseeable future time, cheap (or at least the subjective value of feeling) will remain the most important purchase standard. The brand image and service is still is the main purchase standard above - market cars.

Finally, with the brand positioning and quality performance of all domestic and foreign enterprises to gradually clear, these standards will be equally applicable to the low end of the market.

In the state plan allocation era, supply need to be allocated through the central organization, vehicle manufacturers for the production of vehicle sales way no, or only a very small amount of control. Nowadays, great changes have taken place in car sales mode. Looking to the future, we believe that, after joining the WTO, the market will gradually enter the vehicle manufacturers under the control of the sales model. In the near future, we expect to see at the same time to provide a full range of sales, service, finance and other professional car dealers for domestic and imported products.

Most vehicle manufacturers will continue to face significant problems in various areas within the sales work, this situation will require years of time and a lot of investment to solve. Logistics network will also be continuously upgrade, the experience of Shanghai Volkswagen and Shanghai GM will become Chinese other automobile manufacturers an important lesson. Volkswagen and general expansion of its car service network to create a competitive advantage, its nationwide warehousing, transportation and logistics network can satisfy the consumers in the service life of the automobile parts and service for all the needs of. For smaller businesses and new market enterprises, the lack of the network will be a major challenge, which makes them unable to provide parts and repair services of high quality at a higher cost efficiency. Ford more late into this market enterprises must establish such a network will be more likely to become long-term China domestic competitors.

Value is gradually turning to the downstream:: at present, domestic sources of revenue and profit Chinese bias value chain, investment mainly concentrated in the automobile manufacturing and parts wholesale. But, as with other market situation, income and profit flow is likely to turn into the downstream, auto financing, lease, repair and service, auto parts, and other automotive service etc..

Apart from these major trends, we also found that the market still has a lot of uncertainty:

The value of the renminbi adjustment: for most multinationals, the value of the renminbi adjustment is a must for prediction and management issues.

For vehicle manufacturers Chinese speaking, the value of the renminbi adjustment in the lower Chinese exports attractive at the same time, will also reduce the cost of imported parts. And for foreign vehicle manufacturers, the value of the renminbi will increase the adjustment in the China overseas investment cost, but also reduce the cost of imports Chinese. For automotive suppliers, value after the adjustment, the procurement of imported raw materials and spare parts costs will be greatly reduced, but the export parts price pressure will increase. Finally, also the overseas financial companies in the China operating costs will increase.

To seek development in the global market: fierce competition in the domestic market and success in the initial gain would stimulate some China vehicle manufacturer to the world, including access to other emerging market.

Chinese vehicle manufacturers, including Chery and Geely appears to have ready. Chinese vehicle manufacturers have already begun to show their products in the overseas automobile exhibition, such as the Frankfurt auto show. China vehicle manufacturers in the same to other developing countries, market sales, in order to obtain in the overseas business experience. Korea auto industry experience is also a vivid lesson for Chinese automobile manufacturers.

With the development of fuel-efficient cars Chinese conditions: for serious concern the problem of fuel consumption, in the global scope, Chinese will be the first to put forward the relevant laws and regulations, and launched a series of low-cost, energy efficient cars. At present Chinese in energy saving and pollution of air and water, are facing severe challenges.

Automobile life cycle management: we can imagine, with the tide of the popularization of cars from east to west development, China domestic soon there will be a full-time management of the life cycle of automotive enterprises. This will lead to the domestic and foreign automobile manufacturers are also involved in some of them, for each link in the value chain profit.

Although our results do not, in particular, but we still hope to be able to describe the main development trends and discontinuities in the next ten years, may affect the development of the industry. The road ahead will be long -- the road ahead is smooth, but the search up and down, success beyond people will produce generous returns.

The Global Automotive Trends

Function is not clear trend

A car can have become a trend, a trend in the development of models. As everyone knows, the product of MPV SUV is this trend; in fact, later BPV, MPT, CUV...... Is also a manifestation of this compound. But the signs, car this versatility is the direction of change to the edge. This point at the Beijing international auto show was particularly prominent.

General Motors in the auto show on display at a concept car -- Buick Centieme. Its appearance is exactly like MPV, but with SUV sedan and the most obvious characteristics, but also very sports car style. It highlights the Buick inside the car has always been a spacious and comfortable features, simple operation and varied space layout and high-tech facilities are also highlighted. It contains the latest achievements of automobile industry leading technology, presents a trend of the future, a design concept: the fusion can be surprisingly, new.

Audi exhibited at Pikes Peak Quattro sports a new multifunctional concept car. See the appearance, it is a sports car style super SUV, but it is not just a SUV, it combines the characteristics of field top car different, the value of new elements. Audi bluntly: key features of this car is that it spans the multi-level market. Whether this is its marginal?

The concept car like this, at the Beijing international auto show there are many, such as Honda KI WAMI, VOLVO VCC, WASHU MX-Micro Sport, Mazda. They are all exquisite workmanship, complete functions, and novel modeling, unique personality. These Avant models take fusion approach in shape and properties, into the many new scientific and technological achievements in the process and the control of. Surprisingly, design idea and style of the other and the fusion of modern architecture, furniture, decoration. They showed a "be equal to anything" characteristics, not only has the comfort of car, but also has the car acceleration, vehicle safety and conquest, MPV large space and so on, without losing the unique brand culture connotation. This is a world of me, I have you.

In this show, the domestic independent development concept car enterprises launched also showed the feature of development, but not too bright. Such as the NEW CROSSOVER concept car Chery, as well as Changan group launched multifunction vehicle with full intellectual property of CM8, can also explain the characteristics of tidal current.

NEW CROSSOVER concept car is a Chery developed both sedan and MPV comprehensive properties of the models. It has three rows can be any combination of the comfortable seats, which is not only suitable for walking in the city, but also suitable for outdoor leisure and many people travel a short distance. Perhaps, because of this integration, multifunction, marginal, let Chery do hard, there is no give the car a proper name.

CM8 is the Changan lasted nearly 3 years to create portrait by CELF (C-City City, E-Eco environmental protection, enjoy life, L-Life F-Fashion fashion) new models for the design concept of. From the appearance point of view, still appear as mini van, but it has car chassis, comfort, safety is greatly enhanced. Functionally, it combines the functions of business, home, leisure and other in one.

The domestic automobile enterprises attention and research worth design trend of marginalization.

What drives the car to the margin

A senior industry analysts pointed out, was born as a transport vehicle, the development process, has gone through 100 years of development today, technology is more and more advanced international automobile, the development of faster and faster. Whether from the international market, or from the domestic market, the diversification of consumer demand is endless, properties and function of car consumers have become increasingly demanding, constantly refresh their aesthetic demand, which propels the car forward design ideas constantly updated. While the development of science and technology, to provide a solid foundation for the car of this marginalization trend. For example, the appearance of various new materials, rapid development of information technology, both for the automobile design is more humanized possible.

On the other hand, from the reality of the product on the market, the rapid diffusion of technology, causes the product tends to homogenization, which forced the automobile manufacturing enterprises to actively seek new breakthroughs, creating new kinds of cars, open up new market segments, occupied the commanding height of the market new, early access to lead the new. A lot of cars, a car has become universal, Multi-National Corporation, in addition to the new energy power, an important orientation for new product development strategy.

Get into21Century, in order to guide and performance of the new trend of future car one after another, many International Motor Corporation launched its new concept car and the car in the world each big auto show. However, there is a phenomenon must cause our attention: the power of a car, Chinese little automobile enterprises to develop their own design concept car. One of the main reasons is the lack of China's automobile design concepts and methods and do not pay enough attention to the concept vehicle R & D. Can say, an independent design and development of the automobile industry, it is hardly a complete auto industry. Therefore we must increase investment in research and in the car design, the right to establish a positive automotive design concept, broad concept of car design.

  1.Concept Car"Definition

  So-called"Concept Car"New models of a design that is not yet started to enter the market is unique and has some superior consciousness. Its main characteristic is: it must be able to think, to guide the new concept car. In general, it just design, aesthetic concepts, people's consumption ability even in automobile manufacturing industry level is difficult to bear. Generally it will shape design, its avant-garde innovative materials, automobile interior design bold use of performance, more perfect new and indicates the development direction of automobile industry.

  Some of the world's biggest car company every year to spend a lot of manpower, material resources and design concept of their own, and in some large-scale automobile exhibition. Can say, with the continuous introduction of the concept car, the near future may appear today has some concept car with certain characteristics or features of the car. But not every concept car will eventually evolved into the production car to enter the market, most of the final concept car is only a"The concept of"For people to discuss, research.

  2The significance of the concept car in reality

  2.1The concept car reflects the development trend of automobile product design and development

  2.1.1The concept car showed the highest level and the most mature technology science

  In the history of international automobile exhibition, each big car company published and launched many concept car, the concept car to remove the elegant, but also more into the high-tech and modern means a lot, the concept vehicle launch a car company proud of the concept, research and development of the concept vehicle is often accompanied by the use of new technology and new material, with certain forward-looking, indicates a new stage of development in the beginning and, for this reason, the development of the concept of automobile companies have invested a great deal of manpower and material resources, with its strong momentum in the development of display car company.

  Application of a variety of high-tech, makes the car slowly evolved into information, communication, entertainment center and exchange of information with the outside world, involved in all aspects of computer and Internet, the function of the vehicle information, entertainment equipment, advanced navigation equipment, real-time traffic information functions are becoming more and more universal and inevitable requirement, these high-tech automobile designers to establish a the new value system beyond time and space, the emergence of new technology of automobile design is endowed with more free space. The car features are also further expanded, in the development of the concept car, the car gradually from the cold machine into a human communication platform of information, such as some concept cars have their own way to express feelings, with joy, anger and sorrow, happy faces, all these make the concept vehicle high beyond the production car, become a symbol a new era. Influence of design concept car for automobile products is more and more, it represents the development direction of automobile industry and the basic train of thought, is a symbol of automobile design level and the level of science and technology.

  2.1.2The maximum satisfaction of human physiological needs and psychological needs---The man-machine engineering in Automotive Engineering

  Ergonomics is20Century50A new subject which developed rapidly in early, the aim is to study, to solve the relationship between design and human engineering technology. While the car body design human engineering, is to the people(The driver, passengers)As the center, from the point of view of physiology, psychology and the movement of the human body, the body design, the layout and equipment, how to adapt to the needs of the people, to create a convenient, safe and reliable, beautiful and comfortable driving environment and riding environment, designing a best man-The car-Environmental system.

  Ergonomics analysis in vehicle design to measurement, statistics and analysis of the various parts of human body size, in the indoor layout design as a basis, determine the valid space inside the vehicle, as well as components, assembly(The seat, dashboard, steering wheel)The location and size. Through the study of the physiological structure of the human body seat design, fully meet the requirements of comfort. According to the determination of operating range on human body and control force, determine the location and size of the force steering device, so that the body control, rapid, accurate, natural light, to reduce the operating level of fatigue. Based on the characteristics of human vision, vision effect research, test, check the driver information system, to ensure that the driver can obtain the correct driver information. According to the motion characteristics of the human body, proper protection for the body of the vehicle collision, correctly determine the position of the hinge points safety belt and the human body binding, vibration study on ride comfort of passengers get off, convenience of study, to determine the position and size of opening door. According to the human physiological requirements, reasonably determine and layout of air conditioning system. Psychological characteristics and demands of people, design a comfortable, beautiful, comfortable riding environment.

  2.1.3Using the virtual product development technology

  At present, more and more companies of automobile design and manufacturing company began using the virtual product development technology, using 3D3DTechnology of virtual reality development concept car. Opel is used3DVirtual reality technology design and development of the concept car. Designers can experience floating in the virtual image of vehicle design and manufacture the air, saving considerable development costs, and plans to extend to its North American14Seat assembly plant. Britain, France, Germany Audi Rolls-Royce Renault, as well as Italy, Sweden and other automobile factory are actively carrying out the virtual design, manufacturing.

  The last car research and development center to develop new or modified, are the first to use the clay body shape is very time-consuming physical model, modified. Now the automobile research and development, particularly the development of concept cars are increasingly seeking the shortest development time. If the introduction of virtual product development technology, as long as the input data in computer, construct models of digital model, in the laboratory, it displays the image of a car in the ideal, the engineers should wear glasses, you can see be crystal clear, like a real car in front of you, after discussing the design the engineer after modification, can quickly design the ideal new car. After finalizing the design, not only can use the data in computer, outsourcing production parts and fitting new car assembly, achieve zero error, but also aging faster than the past.

  2.1.4The concept car to the development trend of green environmental protection type

  Get into21Since the 20th century, the world has a total production of about15Million vehicles, according to expert estimates,2010Global car production will reach7500Million. People in the rapid development of automobile industry at the same time sigh, harm is becoming more and more aware of automobile pollution brings to human beings, so countries are formulating relevant automobile environmental protection measures and regulations, in order to protect the environment for human survival, so the automobile environmental protection design of this new concept of automobile design is placed in a prominent position.

  Improve energy efficiency, improved engine configuration, including electronic control fuel injection system, two secondary air injection, thermal reactor, the exhaust gas recirculation system, catalyzing and purifying device, the crankcase ventilation system, fuel evaporation control system.

  The development of alternative fuel research and development of new energy, environmental protection, including natural gas, liquefied petroleum gas, fast charging battery, hybrid, hydrogen fuel.

  The use of green materials, green packaging, green manufacturing and green plant and equipment in the automotive manufacturing process.

  Recovery of green automobile manufacturing.

  2.2The evolution of concept car that human behavior in road traffic

  2.2.1Concept car that the future development trend of road transportation

  With the development of automobile, automobile status changes slowly, now the car in the eyes of people become the embodiment of a symbol, a symbol of wealth and a status, however the car as the essence of a road traffic mode is ignored. Concept car design is the essence of a car have foreseen the innovation design based on. In the design concept through to the prediction and analysis of various aspects of human human daily life style, to road traffic in use, behavior and way of life, ideas for solving the disharmonious factors between people and objects in the way of the future road traffic. The strong and rapid development of science and technology makes the traffic tool has a very broad space for development of high and new technology, more and more continuously used in car. At present many of the world's largest car company has been aware of the future car development the biggest obstacle is no longer the technical limitations, but designers thinking limits.

  Now the largest auto show concept cars in general into two types: one is a concept car with the latest technology available has been achieved another is that some innovation but also in concept car technology research. For example, to express their feelings of car,Can free replacement car shell car, can easily change the way of driving cars, capable of amphibious vehicle water middle reaches, can fly the space vehicle, electrochromic auto. Like the jointly developed by Toyota and Sony"POD"The car, can pass the headlights, rear view mirror, rear antenna and a seat to the owner to express their"Feelings". Multi function concept cars like the Volkswagen seat in America international auto show to launch"Sal?JuanSa"There is movement, type, comfortable type and city type3Driving mode you can choose.

  2.2.2Differences in expression of national culture concept car

  American as the world leader in automotive industry, is at the forefront of the world in the manufacture of the concept car. Because of various cultures, collision in the America, so its concept car shows more cultural diversity;Another cause is a highly developed commercial state, commercial design and pragmatism prevails, so the design is based on the Aesthetic Ethical deep and really solve practical problems. In contrast to USA car is the Japanese concept car. Japan as the world's second production car big country, its concept car pragmatic and imagination, technology than art, pay more attention to solve the technical problem, it can be said that this is the premise of Japanese design concept car, each kind of models are developed to solve a technical problem. While the Japanese car styling remain small, simple, style characteristic economy and harmonious man-machine relationship are reflected in Japanese as a way of doing things the Oriental thinking and problem solving and compromise.

  USA design as an important part of business operations, the Japanese put a tool design as accelerating products out of Germany, the design as the foundation of the social culture, while in France the design as the designer of the stage. So the design style from the concept car in each country is different, we can see the different design concepts, different countries and different culture background.

  3Conclusion

  Future development of automobile design inevitably along with the automobile technology progress and change rapidly, many designers artistic style will be more strongly reflected in the design of automobile, and give people more choices. High tech, distinct personality, more humanized auto will be21The inevitable development of the auto industry of the century, because it conforms to the human pursuit of culture, personality and needs. Therefore, more attention and investment on the design of the concept vehicle, will be the development of China's automobile industry to promote the great.