January RMB loans increased reasons

Synchronized with the "eye" Bo finance public Micro message opened, micro signal: yfh60716; can also scan two-dimensional code


Central bank data showed 2014, January social financing scale for 2.58 yuan, respectively, than last month and last year of 1.33 yuan and 39900000000 yuan. Among them, the RMB loans increased by 1.32 yuan, an increase of 246900000000 yuan, hit a new high of nearly 4 years.

January RMB loans increased accounted for 51.2% of the social financing scale. Division, household loans increased by 491900000000 yuan, of which, the short-term loans increased by 179800000000 yuan, long-term loans increased by 312100000000 yuan, long-term loans accounted for 63.5%, on individual housing loan demand remains strong. Loans to non-financial enterprises and other departments to increase 826200000000 yuan, among them, the short-term loans increased by 358800000000 yuan, long-term loans increased by 504200000000 yuan, down 82800000000 yuan bill financing. A feature is, bill financing is not declined in January that the loan is a real credit for money.

In January the increase in loans hit a new high of 4 years, there are two main reasons: one is the late last year as banks continue to make "money shortage 'cause many of the implementation of the loan should be forced to delay, because at the end of last year the loan limit, loan to deposit ratio control index constraints and other reasons which make the loans to the delayed implementation of cross the annual.

Two according to the bank for economic management practices and common rules, are generally concentrated lending, early spring of the autumn harvest, in order to achieve the maximum profit of annual growth index. The first half of the year especially the first quarter increase in lending rate is the need for bank internal management.

We must see soberly, in the future the overall change and bank credit assets business social financing scale existing problems. First, a serious shortage of bank loan growth momentum. Loan growth is the main source of funding for the stability of the deposit. The short-term lending funds can not be used for long-term loans, otherwise it will cause serious maturity mismatch, lead to financial risks at least temporarily "money shortage". And the bank deposit interest rate low prices subject to regulation, serious impact on Internet financial products, has dropped significantly phenomenon. In January, the excessive growth in loans at the same time, the RMB deposit was reduced 940200000000 yuan, close to a trillion yuan.

This is a departure from the normal financial status. Under normal circumstances, excessive increase in loan conditions, deposit will be increased. Because of the large number of loans will derive a part of deposit. For example: January loans increased 1.32 yuan, remove to pay 20% statutory reserve 264000000000, should be able to derive 1056000000000 deposit. However, the deposit was down nearly trillion yuan. This is an extremely abnormal phenomenon.

No deposit funding sources where the loan funds. The bank will loan no source of funds. If you rely on the interbank borrowing and short-term financing forced loans will appear again "money shortage". In fact, the January loan growth has to "money" to stay hidden. Only from the deposit and loan of two indicators accounts, loans increased 1.32 yuan, and the deposit has decreased by 940200000000 yuan, two Xiang Xiangjia will bring a funding gap of 2260200000000 yuan.

The substitution effect of other social financing total social financing scale of loans are continuing to increase. January social financing scale for $2.58, loans accounted for 51.2%, other social financing accounted for 48.8%. Compared with the same period last year, loans other than social financing has dropped somewhat, but still remain high, and loan growth is a non normal phenomenon. Loans other than social financing will continue to form a crowding out effect, substitution effect on bank loans. Commercial bank loans and financing market "monopoly situation gone for ever.

Bank non-performing loans the bullish momentum. The latest data China CBRC issued by the display, as of 2013 the end of the fourth quarter, the balance of non-performing loans of commercial banks Chinese is 592100000000 yuan (RMB, the same below), the nine consecutive quarter of rising; non-performing loan rate of 1%, also a high of last year. This should be one of the most conservative data. With the exposure and increased local financing platform loan risk of overcapacity, non-performing loans in the future will be a rising trend to accelerate. Take the steel, railway and local financing platform three, steel overcapacity makes 86 large-scale steel enterprises 1.3 trillion yuan of loans and the steel trade enterprises 1.8 trillion yuan in loans to repay principal and interest is very difficult, the formation of bad increases the possibility of. Railway corporation loan nearly 2 yuan, return the hopeless, is applying for national verification? Local financing platform loan 10 more than 1 trillion yuan, is a never expire loans, the risk will be exposed sooner or later.

The China Banking Regulatory Commission released data show, by the end of 2013, the national banking loan loss reserve is 1674000000000 yuan, provision for coverage of 282.70%, seemingly very high security, is in accordance with the highest rate of bad loans to 2.3%. However, only the three industry once the formation of bad loans, will be far more than 2.3% rate of bad loans, provision for coverage to 1674000000000 yuan can't cover the risk of bad debts, loans for 282.70% future loan losses.

Therefore, commercial bank lending growth stamina, there is no continuity, but also bring internal liquidity stress management difficulties. A pressing matter of the moment is the innovation of commercial bank business development mode as soon as possible, to keep up with the new economic and financial development, if blindly expand loan assets will move towards a dead end.