Analysis of automobile market environment

2007Years Chinese car sales in the market has become the world's second only to the second big market USA, lack of core technology of domestic in this case of automobile enterprises is particularly remarkable, "market for technology" strategy has been hitherto unknown challenge, "independent innovation" strategy has been widely accepted. Then the domestic automobile enterprises, they face exactly is a what kind of environment?

China automobile enterprises at present market opportunities:

A huge potential market:

1Changes in the improvement of income and consumption structure. From the reform and opening up,Gross domestic productThe stable and sustainable growth, the income of the family is also continues to grow exponentially, the purchasing power of leap up.1978Annual per capita income of rural households to133.6Element,2002Years2475.6Element,2004Years2936Yuan; city residents per capita disposable income1978Years343.4Element,2002Years7702.8Element,2004Years9422Element. From the2002Years of big city car into the family, to2004Years of city cars became popular. The family consumption structure changes in the Engel coefficients of variation, city family Engel coefficient1995Years of50.1Reduced to2004Years of37.7, the Engel coefficient of rural families from1995Years of58.6Reduced to2004Years of47.2. And2003Total amount of social savings year reached103617.7Billion yuan.

2China car market grows quickly, car ownership is low. In the2005Global car production reached6400Million, about30%Not to sell, which American sold about1700Million, only more than the previous year8Million vehicles, growth in Europe0.7%In Japan, basically the same circumstances, China maintained two digit growth rate. The current vehicle China thousands of tenure only24A thousand people, far below the global120A level, China car is still at a relatively low level, potential. Experts predict, the scale Chinese auto market to2010The year will reach960Million to1000Million,2020The year will reach1400Million to1500Million.

 3The difference Chinese huge market provides more strategic possibilities for Chinese automobile enterprises. Whether in the economy or in the central and western consumer culture, there were significant differences, as a growing market, foreign capital enterprise knowledge of the market and a process, and also can not be an all-out attack on all market segments. The fact that two grade market of small and medium-sized city and inland city is becoming an important growth point of automobile market.

4Huge global market.2005Global car sales4000Million, and Chinese export car only17Million, in the international market share of the very few, the State encourages the Auto China's automobile enterprises to go out. With the auto market is becoming more and more open, China's automobile industry is integrated into the international market with a positive attitude. May foresee, in the near future, Chinese will also become the automotive industry import and export big country.

Two the support of national policy:

1A small car ban.2006Years1On the national development and Reform Commission and other six departments jointly issued a notice, request to cancel all the energy-saving environment-friendly small cars running routes and taxi operators and other aspects of the limit. It directly contributed to the small car sales, in2006In the first quarter, Chery and other manufacturers have made good sales, which in February Chery's sales reached more than 20000, in the passenger car market for the first time over the FAW volkswagen. The local car companies, is producing a small car experience, can make full use of various resources, including government, has certain advantages in cost control.

2The support of the state industrial policy. Car as a capital intensive and technology intensive industries, there is a powerful driving force for the national economy, as one of the pillar industries of the national focus on the development, put a lot of property, the development of more than 20 years of reform and opening up, a number of state-owned and private automobile enterprises have formed a certain scale, also accumulated a certain amount of talent and experience, a good foundation for the development of the next step of the play.

3The national strategy of independent innovation. In eleven of five planned independent innovation as a national strategy to do this, pointed out the direction for the development of the automobile industry China. Independent innovation has two aspects of advantage of backwardness of Chinese automobile enterprises: as the main body of independent innovation, Chinese automobile enterprises as long as good at finding and using the advantage of backwardness, South Korea, Japan automobile enterprises as an example, take independent innovation as a driving force, occupy a space for one person can be in the fierce competition in the world of motor racing. Since the reform and opening up, joint venture and the introduction of the Chinese feed one's sight on the automobile industry. Through the digestion and absorption, in product quality, production management, equipment improvement, personnel training and other aspects of the greatly improved, accumulation and mastered some of the world automobile manufacturing level synchronization or close to experience, has laid a good foundation for the domestic each big automobile group of independent innovation; Chinese automobile enterprises on the other one advantage of backwardness embodied in the automotive enterprises can choose the partner manufacturing giant in global vehicle, parts, station start high level in the giant's shoulders. China's auto industry is facing the transformation of second major, let more energy-saving, more environmental protection models into the China family is the future development trend of China's automobile industry. Around this goal, all related to automobile consumption policy is being adjusted, this also is the domestic automobile enterprises to engage in independent innovation requires the use of advantage of backwardness.

4Construction of roads and other public facilities is national investment focus. Eleven five national planning put into1000Billion to accelerate rural highway construction, eleven by the end of five the basic realization of all Township, east central all conditions of villages formed asphalt or cement road, the western region realize basic conditions formed village road. And focus on the construction of the national expressway network, the basic formation of the national highway network skeleton. Continue to improve the national highway, provincial trunk highway network, through the inter provincial channels, giving full play to the overall efficiency of road network. Highway mileage230Million km, the highway6.5Million kilometers. The highway network development will promote the expansion of the automobile market.

5Other national policies, encourage the localization rate of car, the recent implementation of the new consumption tax, promote the healthy development of the automobile consumption.

Three capital market and technology environment opportunity.

 1The development of automotive technology. The car speed up the upgrading of products, impact on people's lives increasingly deepened, continuous application of other high-tech, "Automobile Electronics" hot spots continue to emerge. The high-tech industry is steering, extensive application of new energy, new materials, new technology, new technology that will thoroughly to remould oneself changes of automobile industry, the application of rare earth alloy, electronic navigation and automatic control, and hybrid cars and more opportunities for the independent innovation China automobile enterprises.

 2The development of the capital market and continuous improvement, possible sources of the automobile enterprises have more money. Many enterprises to seek listing and financing, foreign investment has also increased Chinese market.Dongfeng AutomobileLimited company(Dongfeng Co.)And the Hubei branch of China Construction Bank, Mizuho Industrial Bank Shanghai branch recently in Wuhan, jointly signed the "35Billion yuan of syndicated loan commitment contract ", this marks the Hubei province banking first commitment of syndicated loan was officially launched. According to the contract, Hubei branch of China Construction Bank and Mizuho Industrial Bank Shanghai branch is committed to providing Dongfeng Co.35Billion syndicated loan, to provide financial support for the implementation of financial management and control system of the company. In the international automobile market, after years of large-scale acquisitions and joint, the world automobile industry has initially formed a general - Fiat Fuji heavy - isuzu,Ford- Mazda - Volvo Cars - Daewoo, Daimler Chrysler - Mitsubishi modern,TOYOTA- Big - Hino, mass - Scania, Renault and NissanSamsungSix big automobile group. Six group agree China car market prospects, have a global strategy from their point of view, based on the strategic layout of the Chinese market, actively, accelerate the start of effective entry and competitive strategy. Recently, Dongfeng Nissan, FAW and VW, brilliance andBMWGM and SAIC, Changan, andFordJoint venture and cooperation and so on is like a raging fire spread.

Four channel construction and consumer

Chinese automobile enterprises thanForeign car brandThe China, channels and market awareness and understanding is the natural advantage. According to statistics, at present our country automobile dealers more than 20000, far more than the number of automobile factory. Annual sales of fifty thousand or sixty thousand vehicles, seventy thousand or eighty thousand vehicles, sales of billions, billions of yuan, dealers operating scale is equivalent to a medium-sized car factory are in the minority. The common feature of these dealers, multi brand, cross regional, grouping, stand on one's own development. In recent times, in the 3S, 4S stores and comprehensive automobile market based on the developed 3S market, 5S supermarket, there are a large number of 3S, 4S brand shop group as the core of the dealer group. These dealers and objective for the rapid growth of small and medium enterprises provides the opportunity, make possible to focus more on R & D and production.

China huge nearly2Billion "middle class", research shows that China per capita purchase a car age35Years old, and American for50Years old. Buyers younger trend, in this class, consumption concept and parents, enjoy the life idea is prominent, and is formed of consumer credit concept

The main threat Chinese automobile enterprises at present:

A fierce competition in the industry.

 1Small scale enterprises, the independent brand market share is low.2005Years145Vehicle production enterprises, but in2006Years2Month car market assault vehicle market share23%American car share12.4%Japanese car share26%, Korean cars share10.6, independent brand enterprises share only28%.

 2Increase of production cost, excess capacity, lower profits, automobile market has changed from seller market to buyer market. Down "the increase in prices of raw materials and vehicle prices have dropped the manufacturers profit," profiteering era is coming to an end, manufacturers have to seek new profit growth point. The price competition becomes the main market and the most effective means of.2005Years1January9Month, domestic car production capacity utilization rate in the55%Left and right, profit fell52%.

 3The car service is backward, three packets of regulations of dystocia. JoinWTOAfter the opening, the domestic sales of cars and spare parts, automobile import and export and distribution services, business transportation company, car payment and financing lease, automobile financing, the automobile service trade. These areas after the opening, foreign products to enter the market Chinese more smooth, the service trade system is not perfect auto industry will produce major effect.2006Years is addedWTOAfter the5Protecting period last year, foreign funds to speed up the layout, the national development and Reform Commission also issued the "evaluation of general automobile dealer and brand dealers qualifications implementation details", have put forward higher requirements for manufacturers,Business philosophyHysteresis and management can make local enterprises lose channel advantage.

    Less than 4 of investment, research and development ability is weak, lack of core technology: product development of automotive industry less investment, means backward, data accumulation, lacking experience in the development of talent, has not yet formed a truck product development system of high level, more do not have independent development ability of car products. The technology development fee of foreign automobile enterprises annual investment accounted for annual sales of 3%5%, the amount of up to hundreds of millions or even billions of dollars, in 2002 Ford R & D expenditure of $7200000000, $5400000000, $4600000000 in general Toyota and some key enterprises in China this ratio is less than 1%. Total investment and foreign gap bigger, so that the car less product variety, backward technology, can not meet the demand of the market. Parts industry also lack of internationally competitive products. According to expert estimates, compared with the level of foreign products, automobile production in China ten years behind, backward technology for twenty years, thirty years behind the development ability.

 Two effect of macro policy and environment.

 1Technical standards: the R & D capability China enterprises is weak, as later developers involved in many problems of patent. The hybrid vehicle standards formulated by the government, is also considered too much reference to the Toyota standard, is not conducive to the development of domestic hybrid car. In fact, even if the design must also be building to grasp the core technology of the. Toyota had to China enterprises put forward the appearance of patent infringement litigation.

 2 Automobile independent innovation policy absence. "The development of automobile industry policy "is large frame, encourage policies to the letter, must have the corresponding implementation details and supporting policies. "Industry development policy" since the implementation of, this is still the "cannot clap with one hand". Automobile industry involves many disciplines and departments, formulate and implement the relevant implementation details and supporting policy needs many departments coordinated, however, China's automobile industry in the process of concrete operations, but did not do a good job of coordinating all departments. The lack of "profit policy of the automobile industry independent innovation". Enterprises for independent innovation is not only need to pay a heavy price, but also to take great risks. Under the condition of market economy, the enterprise is profit. You can also profit if the enterprise is not independent innovation, can even more benefit, independent innovation power will decrease even disappear. This requires countries in loans, tax, land and the purchase of equipment, provide enterprises with independent innovation "profit policy". But the present situation is, countries in loans, tax, land and the purchase of equipment, not only does not provide what "profit policy" for the independent innovation of domestic enterprises, and it is the introduction of foreign capital, the foreign technology and products to provide a "profit policy". The domestic automobile enterprises as well as the leader of some private enterprises have independent innovation enthusiasm and courage, but also suffer from a lack of the necessary policy support.

3Automobile exhaust emission standards and recycling.2005Years4Month27Day, the State Environmental Protection Administration announced the five motor vehicle emission standard, the "method" to the euro and Euro IV standard as the reference, the light vehicle III, IV emission standards China(China IV standards III, China). It is reported, the two standards will respectively2007Years7Month1Day and2010Years7Month1Began in the national implementation.2006Years3New release of "recycling automotive products and technology policy" clearly put forward,2010Years, China's automobile production enterprises orImport carThe agents responsible for the recovery processingSaleAutomotive products andPackageGoods, can also be entrusted to the relevant institutions, enterprises responsible for recycling. Such policies even in standard factories, implement energy saving principles of legislation, increasing investment also allow manufacturers, in the aspects of technology China enterprises is also behind foreign counterparts.

4The impact of state macro-control policies. At present Chinese enterprises financing channels of a single, mainly rely on bank loans, due to national policy tightening, tightening bank lending, the small and medium-sized private enterprises face the financing problem.

5Roads and parking problems and environmental problems. Because the city road length and area of the growth rate lower than the amount of the increase in speed and low management level of transportation vehicle, road network structure and the passenger and freight transport structure unreasonable, some large city traffic is becoming more and more serious, and that the amount of highway traffic, low density, poor quality, less than the capacity of. In the city construction can not good car parking facilities, in parts of the city, for lack of parking facilities, backward management, so that the side is the parking lot under utilized, while disorderly Zhandao phenomenon is serious. In addition, if China reached USA current level per4Individuals with3Car, ready to2900Million hectares of land road, which is equivalent to the total area of China existing paddy field. Which brings to the natural environment under pressure and pollution problems.

6The automobile tax. The currentAutomobile consumption taxHeavy taxes, unreasonable structure,17%Value added tax,10%The purchase tax,3%To8%Consumption tax, there are all kinds of fees to count, causing consumers"Buy used not", restricted vehicle consumption market. But the toll road site, increased consumer spending.

7Existence of local protectionism part. Now the important provinces and cities have their own car manufacturing plant, local protectionism is inevitable in employment and economic development under the pressure of existence or bright or dark.

 Effects of three international market and technology.

 Because of the global automotive market downturn, especially America DetroitThe automobile companyCrisis, the rapid growth of the China market has a crucial role in the process of each big car company in the future development, China market competition is the focus of global competition, companies to speed up the launch of new products and new models in the China speed.

 The world automobile industry is pregnant with a power system technology innovation, to fully understand the great significance of the development of a new generation of automobile power system, enhance independent innovation to a new generation of automotive technology. Only in this way, can the China automobile industry in foreign countries to a new generation of automotive technology become mature when no longer behind.
Can say, the auto industry of developed countries have come a long way in innovation of automobile technology, established a relatively perfect system. At present, the independent innovation China automobile industry is still in the initial stage, but without any protection, to infant products, to automotive products and are quite mature in developed countries is fierce market competition. That is to say, Chinese automobile industry in the initial stage of independent innovation, encountered abominable environment. Therefore, the independent innovation Chinese automobile industry than in developed countries more difficult.

A forecast by the International Energy Agency show,2000~2030Years in the future30Years, China incremental oil demand of global incremental oil demand18%. International oil prices rise, the domestic oil retail prices, in the long run, oil shortage will become one of the main problems in the development of the automobile industry must face.

Four the consumption environment

1The social environment: mine owners in recent years BMW Mercedes Benz "hit events" and some mine to buy luxury cars, in addition to the widening income gap, the public mentality begins to form, and further intensification of social contradictions. In addition, the purchase of luxury bus, the pursuit of large capacity of large size, city taxi pursue Gaodanghua, some are not normal consumption psychology and behavior and the existence of private car market to follow the trend of consumption and conspicuous consumption, is bound to affect the healthy development of automobile consumption.

2Auto credit is backward: China's current car buyers are mostly cash, car sales in developed countries70%By credit sale, the proportion of China's problems20%.The automobile financeCompany and domestic financial institutions, automobile credit develops slowly, on the one hand, financial institutions, automobile consumption credit bad debt rate as high as40%, because of the personal credit system is not perfect, the prescribed proportion of commercial vehicle loans Shoufu not less than30%The proportion of car, Shoufu not less than20%The term, shall not exceed five years, the suppression of the consumer's ability to pay. On the other hand, approved by the state of the auto financing company is either foreign or joint venture, the local auto enterprises in a backward position disadvantage in this field.

3Consumer brand loyalty is low, price sensitive, follow the trend of consumption. Most of the people are the first purchase, brand awareness is low, about half of the people on the basis of family and friends. Consumers need to manufacturers and distribution tours provide more services and support. Comparison of consumption makes the brand does not have the foreign brands in this area the advantage of reputation.

4The second-hand car market is not perfect.

 

Generally speaking for Chinese automobile production enterprises, although there are domestic and foreign broad market prospects, but because be congenitally deficient, acquired malnutrition, in a disadvantageous position in the market competition, is in a risky environment. The opportunity to come from the stable and healthy development of Chinese economy and the national strategic direction, pressure and energy pollution threat mainly from foreign mature market competitors, the natural environment.

Chinese market due to large difference exist in the market a few different, and fast changes in the market, is likely to sales growth and share decline phenomenon. The China enterprises, as the income level in China is relatively low, so there are many low-end customers, this is a great market demand, independent development with its own R & D level and ability, was able to meet the needs of more consumers. According to some experts predicted, Geely, Chery these independent development of enterprises is the angle from the edge into the market, but as the market changes, the market will become the future of the edge Chinese mainstream market; as long as to seize this market, marginal businesses will become the main current of enterprise in the future. Independent innovation is the only way to get the core competition ability Chinese automobile enterprise, is the inevitable choice China healthy, sustainable development of automobile industry

The 1 industry

At present, the policy has been part of the exposure draft. According to informed sources, the revised manuscript has been put forward clearly, to 2015, the independent brand car to occupy 50% of the domestic market, the independent brand cars accounted for the domestic automobile market in 40% goals.

Chinese Automobile Industry Association statistics show, by the end of 2009, the independent brand passenger cars accounted for 44.3% of the domestic market, the independent brand cars accounted for 29.67% of the domestic market, not far from the policy objectives.

National securities industry chief analyst Cao He thinks, the car retains the quantity, Chinese per 1000 people only have cars less than 40 vehicles, only American 5%, less than the world average of 1/3. Therefore, China has the car quantity and large increase in space.

Northeast Securities analyst Liu Lixi that, from 2000 to 2009, the compound growth China automobile production rate is about 22.6%, the ratio of the price and per capita GDP, automobile production and sales to maintain 20% growth rate is still can be maintained for 5 years.

In 2009 the domestic passenger car sales of 10331300 units, with a conservative future five years the average annual compound growth rate of 10%, to 2015 domestic car sales is expected to reach 18302500 units, sales of about 8000000 vehicles. At the appointed time, the independent brand passenger car sales reached 9150000 vehicles, to meet the 50% policy goals. This means that, in 2009 the independent brand passenger car sales of 4574000 cars, in 2015 the independent brand passenger car sales to double.

The next five years sales double based judgment, it is not hard to understand why the recent domestic independent brand enterprise the new expansion project blossom everywhere. Geely, Chery, Changan, the Great Wall, BYD, brilliance, Li Fan, JAC, hippocampus and other independent brand car enterprises without exception, announced the expansion in the near future, planning a total investment of nearly 60000000000 yuan

 

The car market into popularization stage data related to the rapid growth stage
The country	Per capitaGross domestic product (US $)	The Engel coefficient	Thousands of cars (cars)	The average annual growth rate of rapid growth stage
Germany	1000	0.48	40	47.3%
Japan	1000	0.37	50	35.7%
The Republic of Korea	3000	0.38	48	27.3%
China	3000	0.38(town)	47	22.9%