Loan growth or difficult to continue

In the context of the global financial crisis, bank credit is the instinct of contraction. But since November 2008 growth in our credit blowout occurred, the new credit for 2008 of about 470000000000 yuan, about 760000000000 yuan in December, and in 2009 January increased 162000000 yuan, similar to our country commercial bank this trend increased credit behavior, in other countries is probably the one and the only one. now we need to figure out the key problem is, credit growth is sustainable If the credit can maintain the current growth, then China's economic recovery will come soon, the consumer price decline trend will be reversed, for investors, should sell bonds to buy stock. But if the credit growth is a short-term phenomenon, then, the financial investment decision on the matter: the current stock prices will not last long, and bond markets will continue to be bullish. credit from 2009 January data, the author thinks that credit growth is difficult to. first look at the money supply. 1 at the end of 2009, the broad money supply (M2) balance of 49.61 yuan, a year-on-year growth of 18.79%, an increase over the previous year high 0.97 percentage points; the narrow money supply (M1) balance of 16.52 yuan, a year-on-year growth of 6.68%, 2.38 percentage points lower than the previous year growth. M1 continued to go down, while the M2 rebounded, suggesting that despite the increase in credit data quickly make M2 growth, but economic activity did not increase. need to emphasize is, in the past ten years in our history, when M1 and M2 differ by more than 5 percentage points, the stock market will be greatly increased, the analysis, the author had in 2005 December and 2007 November two times wrote an article, and successfully predict 2006 will see the stock market rally, also successfully predicted the stock market at the end of 2007. The author noted that since 2008 October, M1 and M2 difference began to gradually widened, many familiar with the analysis method of readersIn the context of the global financial crisis, bank credit is the instinct of contraction. ButAccount to earn interest. In theory, if the bill financing margin ratio of 10%, the enterprise through the discount each bank and discount, the total amount of circulating financing can be increased 10 times, is greatly inflated the total loans between banks, and this part of the funds did not go into the real economy. With the changes in the interest rate structure, if enterprises are no longer based on bank arbitrage through bill financing, then bill financing scale will gradually reduce. If the central bank to cut interest rates, half a year time deposit rates will be close to the discount rate, the enterprise through the bill financing arbitrage behavior will end, bill financing will be out of the water. departments in the non financial corporations and other loans, long-term loans increased obviously, 2008 January, long-term loans increased by 299900000000 yuan this year, medium and long-term loans increased by 522900000000. This should be attributed to the country to stimulate investment policy in action. From the commercial bank loan information, industry concentration has improved significantly, mainly in government support, government security, monopoly industries, loan allocation proportion rising sharply; at the same time, the loan customer concentration also increased. Visible, credit growth and did not benefit the small and medium-sized enterprise, microcosmic economy does not appear positive change, this kind of growth is unsustainable. Looking to the future, with the reduction of government projects, long-term loans will be reduced.2008Years11Since September the growth situation of China credit emerged blowout,2008Years of new credit forGive the author email or message asking whether the means that the stock market began to rise again. Difference of M1 and M2 in 2009 January has been more than 10 percentage points, if the laws of history is still useful, the stock market will be the emergence of big market. But the author thinks, at present for the special period China economy, past rules will not reproduce. The reason is not complicated, under the influence of global financial crisis, China economic and financial market and other countries in the world, there will be no great changes since 1929. secondly, have a look the credit. 2009 January RMB loans increased by 1.62 yuan, an increase of 814100000000 yuan. The sub sector situation: household loans increased by 121400000000 yuan, of which, the short-term loans increased by 62100000000 yuan, long-term loans increased by 59300000000 yuan; loans to non-financial corporations and other departments to increase 1.5 yuan, among them, the short-term loans increased by 340400000000 yuan, an increase of 623900000000 yuan bill financing, long-term loans increased by 522900000000 yuan. Compared to 2008 January data found in 2009, main source of the increase in credit financing instruments in 2008 January, bill financing increased by only 18500000000 yuan, and this year is 623900000000 yuan. Such a phenomenon has been in existence since 2008 since November. why banks greatly increased the scale of the financing instruments? One is in response to the central bank window guidance -- "to increase credit", on the other hand is to control credit. Bill financing is a balance between the policy and the risk of product. From a market point of view, the current condition of bill financing structure of interest rates but a massive creation. According to industry analysis, in the economic downturn trend obvious cases, many banks to avoid risks, piling on bills in January this year, the partial term bank discount rate is only about 1.4%, less than half a year time deposit interest rates 1.98%, and discount charges only 5/10000. The discount rate of the upside down gives some enterprises the arbitrage opportunities, on one hand they accept discount to the bank, on the other hand, the funds continue to keep4700Billion yuan,12In the context of the global financial crisis, bank credit is the instinct of contraction. But since November 2008 growth in our credit blowout occurred, the new credit for 2008 of about 470000000000 yuan, about 760000000000 yuan in December, and in 2009 January increased 162000000 yuan, similar to our country commercial bank this trend increased credit behavior, in other countries is probably the one and the only one. now we need to figure out the key problem is, credit growth is sustainable If the credit can maintain the current growth, then China's economic recovery will come soon, the consumer price decline trend will be reversed, for investors, should sell bonds to buy stock. But if the credit growth is a short-term phenomenon, then, the financial investment decision on the matter: the current stock prices will not last long, and bond markets will continue to be bullish. credit from 2009 January data, the author thinks that credit growth is difficult to. first look at the money supply. 1 at the end of 2009, the broad money supply (M2) balance of 49.61 yuan, a year-on-year growth of 18.79%, an increase over the previous year high 0.97 percentage points; the narrow money supply (M1) balance of 16.52 yuan, a year-on-year growth of 6.68%, 2.38 percentage points lower than the previous year growth. M1 continued to go down, while the M2 rebounded, suggesting that despite the increase in credit data quickly make M2 growth, but economic activity did not increase. need to emphasize is, in the past ten years in our history, when M1 and M2 differ by more than 5 percentage points, the stock market will be greatly increased, the analysis, the author had in 2005 December and 2007 November two times wrote an article, and successfully predict 2006 will see the stock market rally, also successfully predicted the stock market at the end of 2007. The author noted that since 2008 October, M1 and M2 difference began to gradually widened, many familiar with the analysis method of readersFor the month7600Billion yuan, while the2009Years1Give the author email or message asking whether the means that the stock market began to rise again. Difference of M1 and M2 in 2009 January has been more than 10 percentage points, if the laws of history is still useful, the stock market will be the emergence of big market. But the author thinks, at present for the special period China economy, past rules will not reproduce. The reason is not complicated, under the influence of global financial crisis, China economic and financial market and other countries in the world, there will be no great changes since 1929. secondly, have a look the credit. 2009 January RMB loans increased by 1.62 yuan, an increase of 814100000000 yuan. The sub sector situation: household loans increased by 121400000000 yuan, of which, the short-term loans increased by 62100000000 yuan, long-term loans increased by 59300000000 yuan; loans to non-financial corporations and other departments to increase 1.5 yuan, among them, the short-term loans increased by 340400000000 yuan, an increase of 623900000000 yuan bill financing, long-term loans increased by 522900000000 yuan. Compared to 2008 January data found in 2009, main source of the increase in credit financing instruments in 2008 January, bill financing increased by only 18500000000 yuan, and this year is 623900000000 yuan. Such a phenomenon has been in existence since 2008 since November. why banks greatly increased the scale of the financing instruments? One is in response to the central bank window guidance -- "to increase credit", on the other hand is to control credit. Bill financing is a balance between the policy and the risk of product. From a market point of view, the current condition of bill financing structure of interest rates but a massive creation. According to industry analysis, in the economic downturn trend obvious cases, many banks to avoid risks, piling on bills in January this year, the partial term bank discount rate is only about 1.4%, less than half a year time deposit interest rates 1.98%, and discount charges only 5/10000. The discount rate of the upside down gives some enterprises the arbitrage opportunities, on one hand they accept discount to the bank, on the other hand, the funds continue to keepThe increase in the month1.62Billion yuan, similar to our country commercial bank this trend increased credit behavior, in other countries is probably the one and the only one.

Account to earn interest. In theory, if the bill financing margin ratio of 10%, the enterprise through the discount each bank and discount, the total amount of circulating financing can be increased 10 times, is greatly inflated the total loans between banks, and this part of the funds did not go into the real economy. With the changes in the interest rate structure, if enterprises are no longer based on bank arbitrage through bill financing, then bill financing scale will gradually reduce. If the central bank to cut interest rates, half a year time deposit rates will be close to the discount rate, the enterprise through the bill financing arbitrage behavior will end, bill financing will be out of the water. departments in the non financial corporations and other loans, long-term loans increased obviously, 2008 January, long-term loans increased by 299900000000 yuan this year, medium and long-term loans increased by 522900000000. This should be attributed to the country to stimulate investment policy in action. From the commercial bank loan information, industry concentration has improved significantly, mainly in government support, government security, monopoly industries, loan allocation proportion rising sharply; at the same time, the loan customer concentration also increased. Visible, credit growth and did not benefit the small and medium-sized enterprise, microcosmic economy does not appear positive change, this kind of growth is unsustainable. Looking to the future, with the reduction of government projects, long-term loans will be reduced.

Now we need to make it clear that the key problem, credit growth is sustainable? If the credit can maintain the current growth, then China's economic recovery will come soon, the consumer price decline trend will be reversed, for investors, should sell bonds to buy stock. But if the credit growth is a short-term phenomenon, then, the financial investment decision on the matter: the current stock prices will not last long, and bond markets will continue to be bullish.

Give the author email or message asking whether the means that the stock market began to rise again. Difference of M1 and M2 in 2009 January has been more than 10 percentage points, if the laws of history is still useful, the stock market will be the emergence of big market. But the author thinks, at present for the special period China economy, past rules will not reproduce. The reason is not complicated, under the influence of global financial crisis, China economic and financial market and other countries in the world, there will be no great changes since 1929. secondly, have a look the credit. 2009 January RMB loans increased by 1.62 yuan, an increase of 814100000000 yuan. The sub sector situation: household loans increased by 121400000000 yuan, of which, the short-term loans increased by 62100000000 yuan, long-term loans increased by 59300000000 yuan; loans to non-financial corporations and other departments to increase 1.5 yuan, among them, the short-term loans increased by 340400000000 yuan, an increase of 623900000000 yuan bill financing, long-term loans increased by 522900000000 yuan. Compared to 2008 January data found in 2009, main source of the increase in credit financing instruments in 2008 January, bill financing increased by only 18500000000 yuan, and this year is 623900000000 yuan. Such a phenomenon has been in existence since 2008 since November. why banks greatly increased the scale of the financing instruments? One is in response to the central bank window guidance -- "to increase credit", on the other hand is to control credit. Bill financing is a balance between the policy and the risk of product. From a market point of view, the current condition of bill financing structure of interest rates but a massive creation. According to industry analysis, in the economic downturn trend obvious cases, many banks to avoid risks, piling on bills in January this year, the partial term bank discount rate is only about 1.4%, less than half a year time deposit interest rates 1.98%, and discount charges only 5/10000. The discount rate of the upside down gives some enterprises the arbitrage opportunities, on one hand they accept discount to the bank, on the other hand, the funds continue to keepFrom the2009Give the author email or message asking whether the means that the stock market began to rise again. Difference of M1 and M2 in 2009 January has been more than 10 percentage points, if the laws of history is still useful, the stock market will be the emergence of big market. But the author thinks, at present for the special period China economy, past rules will not reproduce. The reason is not complicated, under the influence of global financial crisis, China economic and financial market and other countries in the world, there will be no great changes since 1929. secondly, have a look the credit. 2009 January RMB loans increased by 1.62 yuan, an increase of 814100000000 yuan. The sub sector situation: household loans increased by 121400000000 yuan, of which, the short-term loans increased by 62100000000 yuan, long-term loans increased by 59300000000 yuan; loans to non-financial corporations and other departments to increase 1.5 yuan, among them, the short-term loans increased by 340400000000 yuan, an increase of 623900000000 yuan bill financing, long-term loans increased by 522900000000 yuan. Compared to 2008 January data found in 2009, main source of the increase in credit financing instruments in 2008 January, bill financing increased by only 18500000000 yuan, and this year is 623900000000 yuan. Such a phenomenon has been in existence since 2008 since November. why banks greatly increased the scale of the financing instruments? One is in response to the central bank window guidance -- "to increase credit", on the other hand is to control credit. Bill financing is a balance between the policy and the risk of product. From a market point of view, the current condition of bill financing structure of interest rates but a massive creation. According to industry analysis, in the economic downturn trend obvious cases, many banks to avoid risks, piling on bills in January this year, the partial term bank discount rate is only about 1.4%, less than half a year time deposit interest rates 1.98%, and discount charges only 5/10000. The discount rate of the upside down gives some enterprises the arbitrage opportunities, on one hand they accept discount to the bank, on the other hand, the funds continue to keepYears1Credit data in August, the author thinks that credit growth continued to be difficult.

In the context of the global financial crisis, bank credit is the instinct of contraction. But since November 2008 growth in our credit blowout occurred, the new credit for 2008 of about 470000000000 yuan, about 760000000000 yuan in December, and in 2009 January increased 162000000 yuan, similar to our country commercial bank this trend increased credit behavior, in other countries is probably the one and the only one. now we need to figure out the key problem is, credit growth is sustainable If the credit can maintain the current growth, then China's economic recovery will come soon, the consumer price decline trend will be reversed, for investors, should sell bonds to buy stock. But if the credit growth is a short-term phenomenon, then, the financial investment decision on the matter: the current stock prices will not last long, and bond markets will continue to be bullish. credit from 2009 January data, the author thinks that credit growth is difficult to. first look at the money supply. 1 at the end of 2009, the broad money supply (M2) balance of 49.61 yuan, a year-on-year growth of 18.79%, an increase over the previous year high 0.97 percentage points; the narrow money supply (M1) balance of 16.52 yuan, a year-on-year growth of 6.68%, 2.38 percentage points lower than the previous year growth. M1 continued to go down, while the M2 rebounded, suggesting that despite the increase in credit data quickly make M2 growth, but economic activity did not increase. need to emphasize is, in the past ten years in our history, when M1 and M2 differ by more than 5 percentage points, the stock market will be greatly increased, the analysis, the author had in 2005 December and 2007 November two times wrote an article, and successfully predict 2006 will see the stock market rally, also successfully predicted the stock market at the end of 2007. The author noted that since 2008 October, M1 and M2 difference began to gradually widened, many familiar with the analysis method of readersFirst look at the money supply situation.2009Years1At the end of the month, the broad money supply(M2)Balance49.61Trillion yuan, a year-on-year growth of18.79%At the end of last year, an increase of more than high0.97Account to earn interest. In theory, if the bill financing margin ratio of 10%, the enterprise through the discount each bank and discount, the total amount of circulating financing can be increased 10 times, is greatly inflated the total loans between banks, and this part of the funds did not go into the real economy. With the changes in the interest rate structure, if enterprises are no longer based on bank arbitrage through bill financing, then bill financing scale will gradually reduce. If the central bank to cut interest rates, half a year time deposit rates will be close to the discount rate, the enterprise through the bill financing arbitrage behavior will end, bill financing will be out of the water. departments in the non financial corporations and other loans, long-term loans increased obviously, 2008 January, long-term loans increased by 299900000000 yuan this year, medium and long-term loans increased by 522900000000. This should be attributed to the country to stimulate investment policy in action. From the commercial bank loan information, industry concentration has improved significantly, mainly in government support, government security, monopoly industries, loan allocation proportion rising sharply; at the same time, the loan customer concentration also increased. Visible, credit growth and did not benefit the small and medium-sized enterprise, microcosmic economy does not appear positive change, this kind of growth is unsustainable. Looking to the future, with the reduction of government projects, long-term loans will be reduced.Percentage points; the narrow money supply(M1)Balance16.52Trillion yuan, a year-on-year growth of6.68%At the end of last year, an increase of more than low2.38A percentage point.Give the author email or message asking whether the means that the stock market began to rise again. Difference of M1 and M2 in 2009 January has been more than 10 percentage points, if the laws of history is still useful, the stock market will be the emergence of big market. But the author thinks, at present for the special period China economy, past rules will not reproduce. The reason is not complicated, under the influence of global financial crisis, China economic and financial market and other countries in the world, there will be no great changes since 1929. secondly, have a look the credit. 2009 January RMB loans increased by 1.62 yuan, an increase of 814100000000 yuan. The sub sector situation: household loans increased by 121400000000 yuan, of which, the short-term loans increased by 62100000000 yuan, long-term loans increased by 59300000000 yuan; loans to non-financial corporations and other departments to increase 1.5 yuan, among them, the short-term loans increased by 340400000000 yuan, an increase of 623900000000 yuan bill financing, long-term loans increased by 522900000000 yuan. Compared to 2008 January data found in 2009, main source of the increase in credit financing instruments in 2008 January, bill financing increased by only 18500000000 yuan, and this year is 623900000000 yuan. Such a phenomenon has been in existence since 2008 since November. why banks greatly increased the scale of the financing instruments? One is in response to the central bank window guidance -- "to increase credit", on the other hand is to control credit. Bill financing is a balance between the policy and the risk of product. From a market point of view, the current condition of bill financing structure of interest rates but a massive creation. According to industry analysis, in the economic downturn trend obvious cases, many banks to avoid risks, piling on bills in January this year, the partial term bank discount rate is only about 1.4%, less than half a year time deposit interest rates 1.98%, and discount charges only 5/10000. The discount rate of the upside down gives some enterprises the arbitrage opportunities, on one hand they accept discount to the bank, on the other hand, the funds continue to keepM1Continue to go down, andM2Account to earn interest. In theory, if the bill financing margin ratio of 10%, the enterprise through the discount each bank and discount, the total amount of circulating financing can be increased 10 times, is greatly inflated the total loans between banks, and this part of the funds did not go into the real economy. With the changes in the interest rate structure, if enterprises are no longer based on bank arbitrage through bill financing, then bill financing scale will gradually reduce. If the central bank to cut interest rates, half a year time deposit rates will be close to the discount rate, the enterprise through the bill financing arbitrage behavior will end, bill financing will be out of the water. departments in the non financial corporations and other loans, long-term loans increased obviously, 2008 January, long-term loans increased by 299900000000 yuan this year, medium and long-term loans increased by 522900000000. This should be attributed to the country to stimulate investment policy in action. From the commercial bank loan information, industry concentration has improved significantly, mainly in government support, government security, monopoly industries, loan allocation proportion rising sharply; at the same time, the loan customer concentration also increased. Visible, credit growth and did not benefit the small and medium-sized enterprise, microcosmic economy does not appear positive change, this kind of growth is unsustainable. Looking to the future, with the reduction of government projects, long-term loans will be reduced.Rebound, this shows that although the credit data increase rapidlyM2Increase economic activity, but did not increase.

It should be stressed that, in the past ten years in our country, every timeM1AndM2The difference is more than5In the context of the global financial crisis, bank credit is the instinct of contraction. But since November 2008 growth in our credit blowout occurred, the new credit for 2008 of about 470000000000 yuan, about 760000000000 yuan in December, and in 2009 January increased 162000000 yuan, similar to our country commercial bank this trend increased credit behavior, in other countries is probably the one and the only one. now we need to figure out the key problem is, credit growth is sustainable If the credit can maintain the current growth, then China's economic recovery will come soon, the consumer price decline trend will be reversed, for investors, should sell bonds to buy stock. But if the credit growth is a short-term phenomenon, then, the financial investment decision on the matter: the current stock prices will not last long, and bond markets will continue to be bullish. credit from 2009 January data, the author thinks that credit growth is difficult to. first look at the money supply. 1 at the end of 2009, the broad money supply (M2) balance of 49.61 yuan, a year-on-year growth of 18.79%, an increase over the previous year high 0.97 percentage points; the narrow money supply (M1) balance of 16.52 yuan, a year-on-year growth of 6.68%, 2.38 percentage points lower than the previous year growth. M1 continued to go down, while the M2 rebounded, suggesting that despite the increase in credit data quickly make M2 growth, but economic activity did not increase. need to emphasize is, in the past ten years in our history, when M1 and M2 differ by more than 5 percentage points, the stock market will be greatly increased, the analysis, the author had in 2005 December and 2007 November two times wrote an article, and successfully predict 2006 will see the stock market rally, also successfully predicted the stock market at the end of 2007. The author noted that since 2008 October, M1 and M2 difference began to gradually widened, many familiar with the analysis method of readersPercent, the stock market will be substantially rise, analysis on this issue, the author once in2005YearsIn the context of the global financial crisis, bank credit is the instinct of contraction. But since November 2008 growth in our credit blowout occurred, the new credit for 2008 of about 470000000000 yuan, about 760000000000 yuan in December, and in 2009 January increased 162000000 yuan, similar to our country commercial bank this trend increased credit behavior, in other countries is probably the one and the only one. now we need to figure out the key problem is, credit growth is sustainable If the credit can maintain the current growth, then China's economic recovery will come soon, the consumer price decline trend will be reversed, for investors, should sell bonds to buy stock. But if the credit growth is a short-term phenomenon, then, the financial investment decision on the matter: the current stock prices will not last long, and bond markets will continue to be bullish. credit from 2009 January data, the author thinks that credit growth is difficult to. first look at the money supply. 1 at the end of 2009, the broad money supply (M2) balance of 49.61 yuan, a year-on-year growth of 18.79%, an increase over the previous year high 0.97 percentage points; the narrow money supply (M1) balance of 16.52 yuan, a year-on-year growth of 6.68%, 2.38 percentage points lower than the previous year growth. M1 continued to go down, while the M2 rebounded, suggesting that despite the increase in credit data quickly make M2 growth, but economic activity did not increase. need to emphasize is, in the past ten years in our history, when M1 and M2 differ by more than 5 percentage points, the stock market will be greatly increased, the analysis, the author had in 2005 December and 2007 November two times wrote an article, and successfully predict 2006 will see the stock market rally, also successfully predicted the stock market at the end of 2007. The author noted that since 2008 October, M1 and M2 difference began to gradually widened, many familiar with the analysis method of readers12The month and the2007Account to earn interest. In theory, if the bill financing margin ratio of 10%, the enterprise through the discount each bank and discount, the total amount of circulating financing can be increased 10 times, is greatly inflated the total loans between banks, and this part of the funds did not go into the real economy. With the changes in the interest rate structure, if enterprises are no longer based on bank arbitrage through bill financing, then bill financing scale will gradually reduce. If the central bank to cut interest rates, half a year time deposit rates will be close to the discount rate, the enterprise through the bill financing arbitrage behavior will end, bill financing will be out of the water. departments in the non financial corporations and other loans, long-term loans increased obviously, 2008 January, long-term loans increased by 299900000000 yuan this year, medium and long-term loans increased by 522900000000. This should be attributed to the country to stimulate investment policy in action. From the commercial bank loan information, industry concentration has improved significantly, mainly in government support, government security, monopoly industries, loan allocation proportion rising sharply; at the same time, the loan customer concentration also increased. Visible, credit growth and did not benefit the small and medium-sized enterprise, microcosmic economy does not appear positive change, this kind of growth is unsustainable. Looking to the future, with the reduction of government projects, long-term loans will be reduced.Years11The two month wrote, and successfully forecastAccount to earn interest. In theory, if the bill financing margin ratio of 10%, the enterprise through the discount each bank and discount, the total amount of circulating financing can be increased 10 times, is greatly inflated the total loans between banks, and this part of the funds did not go into the real economy. With the changes in the interest rate structure, if enterprises are no longer based on bank arbitrage through bill financing, then bill financing scale will gradually reduce. If the central bank to cut interest rates, half a year time deposit rates will be close to the discount rate, the enterprise through the bill financing arbitrage behavior will end, bill financing will be out of the water. departments in the non financial corporations and other loans, long-term loans increased obviously, 2008 January, long-term loans increased by 299900000000 yuan this year, medium and long-term loans increased by 522900000000. This should be attributed to the country to stimulate investment policy in action. From the commercial bank loan information, industry concentration has improved significantly, mainly in government support, government security, monopoly industries, loan allocation proportion rising sharply; at the same time, the loan customer concentration also increased. Visible, credit growth and did not benefit the small and medium-sized enterprise, microcosmic economy does not appear positive change, this kind of growth is unsustainable. Looking to the future, with the reduction of government projects, long-term loans will be reduced.2006At the beginning of the year for stocks rose, also successfully predicted the stock market in2007In the context of the global financial crisis, bank credit is the instinct of contraction. But since November 2008 growth in our credit blowout occurred, the new credit for 2008 of about 470000000000 yuan, about 760000000000 yuan in December, and in 2009 January increased 162000000 yuan, similar to our country commercial bank this trend increased credit behavior, in other countries is probably the one and the only one. now we need to figure out the key problem is, credit growth is sustainable If the credit can maintain the current growth, then China's economic recovery will come soon, the consumer price decline trend will be reversed, for investors, should sell bonds to buy stock. But if the credit growth is a short-term phenomenon, then, the financial investment decision on the matter: the current stock prices will not last long, and bond markets will continue to be bullish. credit from 2009 January data, the author thinks that credit growth is difficult to. first look at the money supply. 1 at the end of 2009, the broad money supply (M2) balance of 49.61 yuan, a year-on-year growth of 18.79%, an increase over the previous year high 0.97 percentage points; the narrow money supply (M1) balance of 16.52 yuan, a year-on-year growth of 6.68%, 2.38 percentage points lower than the previous year growth. M1 continued to go down, while the M2 rebounded, suggesting that despite the increase in credit data quickly make M2 growth, but economic activity did not increase. need to emphasize is, in the past ten years in our history, when M1 and M2 differ by more than 5 percentage points, the stock market will be greatly increased, the analysis, the author had in 2005 December and 2007 November two times wrote an article, and successfully predict 2006 will see the stock market rally, also successfully predicted the stock market at the end of 2007. The author noted that since 2008 October, M1 and M2 difference began to gradually widened, many familiar with the analysis method of readersAt the end of the year will go down. The author noticed since2008YearsIn the context of the global financial crisis, bank credit is the instinct of contraction. But since November 2008 growth in our credit blowout occurred, the new credit for 2008 of about 470000000000 yuan, about 760000000000 yuan in December, and in 2009 January increased 162000000 yuan, similar to our country commercial bank this trend increased credit behavior, in other countries is probably the one and the only one. now we need to figure out the key problem is, credit growth is sustainable If the credit can maintain the current growth, then China's economic recovery will come soon, the consumer price decline trend will be reversed, for investors, should sell bonds to buy stock. But if the credit growth is a short-term phenomenon, then, the financial investment decision on the matter: the current stock prices will not last long, and bond markets will continue to be bullish. credit from 2009 January data, the author thinks that credit growth is difficult to. first look at the money supply. 1 at the end of 2009, the broad money supply (M2) balance of 49.61 yuan, a year-on-year growth of 18.79%, an increase over the previous year high 0.97 percentage points; the narrow money supply (M1) balance of 16.52 yuan, a year-on-year growth of 6.68%, 2.38 percentage points lower than the previous year growth. M1 continued to go down, while the M2 rebounded, suggesting that despite the increase in credit data quickly make M2 growth, but economic activity did not increase. need to emphasize is, in the past ten years in our history, when M1 and M2 differ by more than 5 percentage points, the stock market will be greatly increased, the analysis, the author had in 2005 December and 2007 November two times wrote an article, and successfully predict 2006 will see the stock market rally, also successfully predicted the stock market at the end of 2007. The author noted that since 2008 October, M1 and M2 difference began to gradually widened, many familiar with the analysis method of readers10After the month,M1AndM2The poor began to gradually widened, many familiar with the analysis method of readers send email to the author or message asking whether the means that the stock market began to rise again.In the context of the global financial crisis, bank credit is the instinct of contraction. But since November 2008 growth in our credit blowout occurred, the new credit for 2008 of about 470000000000 yuan, about 760000000000 yuan in December, and in 2009 January increased 162000000 yuan, similar to our country commercial bank this trend increased credit behavior, in other countries is probably the one and the only one. now we need to figure out the key problem is, credit growth is sustainable If the credit can maintain the current growth, then China's economic recovery will come soon, the consumer price decline trend will be reversed, for investors, should sell bonds to buy stock. But if the credit growth is a short-term phenomenon, then, the financial investment decision on the matter: the current stock prices will not last long, and bond markets will continue to be bullish. credit from 2009 January data, the author thinks that credit growth is difficult to. first look at the money supply. 1 at the end of 2009, the broad money supply (M2) balance of 49.61 yuan, a year-on-year growth of 18.79%, an increase over the previous year high 0.97 percentage points; the narrow money supply (M1) balance of 16.52 yuan, a year-on-year growth of 6.68%, 2.38 percentage points lower than the previous year growth. M1 continued to go down, while the M2 rebounded, suggesting that despite the increase in credit data quickly make M2 growth, but economic activity did not increase. need to emphasize is, in the past ten years in our history, when M1 and M2 differ by more than 5 percentage points, the stock market will be greatly increased, the analysis, the author had in 2005 December and 2007 November two times wrote an article, and successfully predict 2006 will see the stock market rally, also successfully predicted the stock market at the end of 2007. The author noted that since 2008 October, M1 and M2 difference began to gradually widened, many familiar with the analysis method of readers2009Years1MonthM1AndM2The difference is more than10Give the author email or message asking whether the means that the stock market began to rise again. Difference of M1 and M2 in 2009 January has been more than 10 percentage points, if the laws of history is still useful, the stock market will be the emergence of big market. But the author thinks, at present for the special period China economy, past rules will not reproduce. The reason is not complicated, under the influence of global financial crisis, China economic and financial market and other countries in the world, there will be no great changes since 1929. secondly, have a look the credit. 2009 January RMB loans increased by 1.62 yuan, an increase of 814100000000 yuan. The sub sector situation: household loans increased by 121400000000 yuan, of which, the short-term loans increased by 62100000000 yuan, long-term loans increased by 59300000000 yuan; loans to non-financial corporations and other departments to increase 1.5 yuan, among them, the short-term loans increased by 340400000000 yuan, an increase of 623900000000 yuan bill financing, long-term loans increased by 522900000000 yuan. Compared to 2008 January data found in 2009, main source of the increase in credit financing instruments in 2008 January, bill financing increased by only 18500000000 yuan, and this year is 623900000000 yuan. Such a phenomenon has been in existence since 2008 since November. why banks greatly increased the scale of the financing instruments? One is in response to the central bank window guidance -- "to increase credit", on the other hand is to control credit. Bill financing is a balance between the policy and the risk of product. From a market point of view, the current condition of bill financing structure of interest rates but a massive creation. According to industry analysis, in the economic downturn trend obvious cases, many banks to avoid risks, piling on bills in January this year, the partial term bank discount rate is only about 1.4%, less than half a year time deposit interest rates 1.98%, and discount charges only 5/10000. The discount rate of the upside down gives some enterprises the arbitrage opportunities, on one hand they accept discount to the bank, on the other hand, the funds continue to keepPercentage points, if the laws of history is still useful, the stock market will be the emergence of big market. But the author thinks, at present for the special period China economy, past rules will not reproduce. The reason is not complicated, under the influence of global financial crisis, China economic and financial market and other countries in the world, will appear since the1929Since no great changes.

Secondly, have a look the credit structure.2009YearsGive the author email or message asking whether the means that the stock market began to rise again. Difference of M1 and M2 in 2009 January has been more than 10 percentage points, if the laws of history is still useful, the stock market will be the emergence of big market. But the author thinks, at present for the special period China economy, past rules will not reproduce. The reason is not complicated, under the influence of global financial crisis, China economic and financial market and other countries in the world, there will be no great changes since 1929. secondly, have a look the credit. 2009 January RMB loans increased by 1.62 yuan, an increase of 814100000000 yuan. The sub sector situation: household loans increased by 121400000000 yuan, of which, the short-term loans increased by 62100000000 yuan, long-term loans increased by 59300000000 yuan; loans to non-financial corporations and other departments to increase 1.5 yuan, among them, the short-term loans increased by 340400000000 yuan, an increase of 623900000000 yuan bill financing, long-term loans increased by 522900000000 yuan. Compared to 2008 January data found in 2009, main source of the increase in credit financing instruments in 2008 January, bill financing increased by only 18500000000 yuan, and this year is 623900000000 yuan. Such a phenomenon has been in existence since 2008 since November. why banks greatly increased the scale of the financing instruments? One is in response to the central bank window guidance -- "to increase credit", on the other hand is to control credit. Bill financing is a balance between the policy and the risk of product. From a market point of view, the current condition of bill financing structure of interest rates but a massive creation. According to industry analysis, in the economic downturn trend obvious cases, many banks to avoid risks, piling on bills in January this year, the partial term bank discount rate is only about 1.4%, less than half a year time deposit interest rates 1.98%, and discount charges only 5/10000. The discount rate of the upside down gives some enterprises the arbitrage opportunities, on one hand they accept discount to the bank, on the other hand, the funds continue to keep1MonthThe RMB loans increased by 1.62 yuan, an increase of 814100000000 yuan. The sub sector situation: household loans increased by 121400000000 yuan, of which, the short-term loans increased by 62100000000 yuan, long-term loans increased by 59300000000 yuan; loans to non-financial corporations and other departments to increase 1.5 yuan, among them, the short-term loans increased by 340400000000 yuan, an increase of 623900000000 yuan bill financing, long-term loans increased by 522900000000 yuan. Compared to 2008 January data found in 2009, main source of the increase in credit financing instruments, 2008 JanuaryIn the context of the global financial crisis, bank credit is the instinct of contraction. But since November 2008 growth in our credit blowout occurred, the new credit for 2008 of about 470000000000 yuan, about 760000000000 yuan in December, and in 2009 January increased 162000000 yuan, similar to our country commercial bank this trend increased credit behavior, in other countries is probably the one and the only one. now we need to figure out the key problem is, credit growth is sustainable If the credit can maintain the current growth, then China's economic recovery will come soon, the consumer price decline trend will be reversed, for investors, should sell bonds to buy stock. But if the credit growth is a short-term phenomenon, then, the financial investment decision on the matter: the current stock prices will not last long, and bond markets will continue to be bullish. credit from 2009 January data, the author thinks that credit growth is difficult to. first look at the money supply. 1 at the end of 2009, the broad money supply (M2) balance of 49.61 yuan, a year-on-year growth of 18.79%, an increase over the previous year high 0.97 percentage points; the narrow money supply (M1) balance of 16.52 yuan, a year-on-year growth of 6.68%, 2.38 percentage points lower than the previous year growth. M1 continued to go down, while the M2 rebounded, suggesting that despite the increase in credit data quickly make M2 growth, but economic activity did not increase. need to emphasize is, in the past ten years in our history, when M1 and M2 differ by more than 5 percentage points, the stock market will be greatly increased, the analysis, the author had in 2005 December and 2007 November two times wrote an article, and successfully predict 2006 will see the stock market rally, also successfully predicted the stock market at the end of 2007. The author noted that since 2008 October, M1 and M2 difference began to gradually widened, many familiar with the analysis method of readersBill financing increased by only 18500000000 yuan, and this year is6239Billion yuan. Such a phenomenon has been in existence since 2008 since November.

Source: (Http://blog.sina.com.cn/s/blog_4832b09c0100cihz.html) - loan growth or difficult to continue _ Yinzhongli _ Sina blog