Zhang Lei  China CITIC Bank

At present, the driving force of China's economic development is evolving, consumption has become an important engine of economic growth, consumer finance will also usher in a historic opportunity for development. From the long-term trend, consumer finance will not only become an important growth point of the retail banking, but also is an important direction of domestic banks to deepen transformation and structural adjustment.

 

　　

 

• Consumption will drive consumer finance into the rapid development period

 

Over the past few years, despite the impact of external economic recession and financial crisis, but China's consumer market is relatively stable, not subject to larger shocks, domestic banks to achieve strong growth is still in the business of housing mortgage loan, credit card, car consumption loans. For a long time in the future, in the transformation of the economy and the income increase driven, China's consumer finance will enter the "golden development period".

 

City consumer enter the replacement period. From the international experience, the per capitaGross domestic productAchieve4000The dollar later, residents' consumption structure will change from survival to development and enjoyment type. At present, China's per capitaGross domestic productHas been a breakthrough5000The dollar, upgrading of the consumption structure has emerged. From the city center city residents consumption, consumption is gradually turning to the car as the representative of the high-end consumer goods, "selection" and "luxury" consumption growth will be faster than the "necessities".

 

After the city of rural consumption. In recent years, the level of per capita income of rural residents grew faster growth in the income of urban residents, has entered the10Years ago the city many consumer durables began explosive growth of income level. According to the city consumer experience, the huge rural computer, air conditioning, refrigerators, mobile phone, camera, automobile and other consumer demand space in the future, and the growth rate may be faster than city consumption growth. In addition, the government gradually established the system of rural social security, increase the price of agricultural products, increase the rural infrastructure investment also will help to improve the rural residents' propensity to consume.

 

The population structure of consumption plays an important role in promoting. According to the forecast,2015Years Chinese working age population likely to turn negative growth, demographic dividend will gradually disappear, which may lead to the past30"Low consumption, high investment" economic growth mode change, which will provide a broad market space for consumer credit. In addition, China is still in the peak period of marriage, young population, consumption level and consumption are increasing. The demographic characteristics of pushing up the demand for real estate, wedding consumption, and in tourism, catering, clothing, entertainment, automotive and other items on the propensity to consume than the previous generation. At the same time, the parents of their children's "inter generational shift" also improves the young group of consumption level.

 

Support pillar industry the rise of consumption upgrade. Key industries, real estate, cars will become the important supporting point to promote the development of economic transition. In the case of automobile, the past few years, China's auto sales explosive growth, sales volume ranked first in the world, and the growth rate is higher than other countries. However, China's car ownership in the world of low, far lower than developed countries, but also lower than Russia, Brazil and other BRIC countries inventory level. From international experience, once the income reached a critical point, demand for cars will be explosive growth, and China at this stage. The popularization of cars and the update will be the important sign that China consumption into the golden age and the main supporting industry.

 

　　

 

• The main features of the development of consumer credit in China

 

From the situation of our country, more and more obvious signs of consumption, mass consumption characteristics are also gradually emerging, promoted the rapid development of consumer credit. Overall, the current development of domestic consumer credit has the following important features:

 

The rapid expansion of the scale. After the rapid development, China's current balance of consumer credit has nearly10Trillion yuan (see table1), is1997Recent600Times, consumer credit in the financial institutions loans in the proportion from the1997Years of0.23%Up to the present16.21%. Review the development of these years, consumer credit has experienced two development period. The first stage is the initial business, the demand on the release, the number of loans increased year by year,2000At the end of the loan balance is1997End of the year24Times. Then, the market has entered a period of steady development. The second stage is the2008In the second half, the central issued a series of policies and measures to promote consumption and the development of consumer credit in order to cope with the financial crisis, consumer credit explosive growth.

 

From a long-term point of view, consumer credit has entered a "golden period of growth". At present, the government proposed the "Twelfth Five Year Plan" will vigorously promote consumption development, plan2015Years of personal consumptionGross domestic productIn proportion to42%~45%. At the same time, the government has issued the relevant measures to stimulate the automobile, household appliances and home consumption development, the CBRC also encourage banks to develop general consumer finance business, on the establishment of an auto financing company and Consumer Finance Companies. According to the forecast, "the consumer credit in China's 12th Five Year Plan" period will maintain a growth rate24%Growth rate,2015Years the scale of consumer credit will break20Trillion yuan.

 

The permeability increased steadily. Generally speaking, a measure of a country's consumer credit development level index is the consumer credit permeability (consumer credit/GDP). In recent years, consumer credit penetration in China has improved steadily, from2007Years of12.3%Increased to2011Years of18.8%(see Figure1). However, consumer credit in China is still far lower than other developed market penetration level (see Figure2). As the market increasingly mature, all sectors of society to the income and consumption levels will continue to improve. In the past five years, the rich family (investment in financial assets in the50More than million yuan RMB family) and middle class families (investment in financial assets in the20Million to50Million yuan of family wealth to)15%The rapid expansion of the velocity, the family has a strong desire for consumption, and the consumption credit demand. This part of the demand for the release will drive rapid consumption permeability increase, according to the forecast, forecast2015The consumer credit market will be close to China permeability years30%.

 

Organization structure is gradually perfect. With the rapid development of the consumption credit business, banks have to consumer credit business of independence from the original credit business, set up a retail business department, financial department, the Department of housing credit, the credit card center and other departments, specialized in and management of all kinds of consumer loans. Mainly large and medium-sized commercial bank has built "framework large retail", and the establishment of a loan center in key city.

 

Increasingly rich product system. In the past, our consumption credit to housing mortgage loans, long-term loans, accounted for more than is generally maintained at85%~90%Level. However, with the short term loans to credit card installment loans, the general consumer loans on behalf of the rapid development, changed the past more single product situation, formed a diversified product system. At present, the short-term consumption loans from2007End of the year9.5%Increased to2012At the end of the third quarter of the year18%. Future, consumer credit will penetrate into every aspect of people's lives, and gradually form a housing mortgage loan as the main body, automobile consumption loans, credit card installment loans, the general consumer loans diversified product system. Overall, has the following characteristics:

 

First, individual housing loans will remain the dominant. In recent years, the rapid development of China's individual housing loans, the loan in the proportion remained at80%About. From a long-term perspective, China's real estate market demand is still huge, especially the acceleration of urbanization promotes the rapid growth of demand for housing. The future, China's urbanization rate increased rapidly, rapid urban population growth, it requires a lot of housing and ancillary real estate and the docking. At the same time, the hot real estate market is expanded from a big city to the small and medium-sized city, these factors are important to guarantee the housing loan growth.

 

Secondly, the credit card consumption will maintain strong growth. Over the past few years, the rapid development of the credit card business, has become the second largest market of consumption credit products. Overall, credit card has become the domestic bank's retail business development focus, development has entered a rapid growth channel, the major commercial banks has made a great progress in the organizational structure, management, product innovation. The next few years, is expected to the development of China's credit card will maintain strong growth. With banks and merchants cooperation is increasing, CO branded card, debit card, integrated innovation emerge in an endless stream, as well as the rapid development of bill staging, consumer, car loan stage, mail order stage divided period loan business, will further stimulate the consumer financial demand. According to the forecast, the next few years will be an annual income of about credit card40%Rate of growth,2015The year is expected to reach2.5Trillion yuan.

 

Once again, the automobile consumption credit market matures. According to the developed countries, Japan and South Korea, USA experience, thousands of people in the car retains the quantity is less than50A country, car sales will be as per capitaGross domestic productThe increase of a growth process, the development of China's actual also verified this law.2009Years, driven by government policy, sales of cars in China appeared40%The explosive growth, the total sales ranked first in the world, and the growth rate was significantly higher than that of other countries. At the same time, the conservative attitude of residents on car consumption loans change, vigorously promoting commercial banks and auto finance companies, automobile consumption credit appeared to grow quickly, to become second only to the individual housing loan consumer credit products. The long run, fell, prices in the car to raise the income level of resident factors such as promotion, sales will continue to maintain growth, residents purchase a car loan proportion is expected to increase to20%Above, automobile consumption loans is expected to grow rapidly, is expected to remain the next few years30%The growth rate of around.

 

Finally, the general consumer loans and huge development potential. General consumer loans are generally refers to the consumer spending in the short term credit for durable consumer goods, education and medical services, housing decoration, tourism resort, luxury consumption. At present, the general consumer loans to very low permeability, the total balance of consumer credit4%So, while the mature markets in Hongkong, Singapore and other than usually10%Above. From a domestic perspective, the general consumer loans is also the key point of policies to stimulate domestic consumption,2009Year CBRC launched pilot projects, the establishment of the four Consumer Finance Companies in the approval of four big city, domestic banks are generally the important growth point of general consumer loans as the development of consumer credit. The next few years, China's general consumer credit will remain45%About the growth speed, become the fastest growth of consumer credit products in the market, with huge potential. Among them, medical care, housing, tourism, home appliances and other fields may become an important growth point of general consumer credit or installment loans.

 

The uneven development between regions. The difference of economic development between our country area caused by the development of consumer credit showed obvious unbalance, the main national commercial banks generally will focus on the development of consumer credit is concentrated in the eastern coastal developed areas. According to relevant statistics, Beijing, Shanghai, Guangdong, Zhejiang, Fujian5Province (city) the balance of consumer credit ratio reached60%About. In the consumer credit varieties, area difference is very big also, product development of the western region lags behind the eastern region. For example, some regions in the West has not opened the student loan business. In addition, there are still many blank areas of consumer credit in the rural area of china. From the development of the next few years, with Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou as the representative of the three big city and first-tier cities future consumer credit demand is high, the core position over the next five years will maintain the consumer credit market.

 

The difference of permeability of different consumer groups, the larger. Related survey, consumer credit groups can be divided according to age and the degree of affluence, the future development of space different consumer groups have different. In these consumer groups, the largest young rich group consumption potential, their permeability to improve the space is very large, and are keen to use credit cards. Retired population consumer demand and growth potential is low, the main reason lies in the lack of new revenue growth expectations. Although the least permeability young group, but its future permeability is the highest, especially in the housing mortgage loans and general consumer demand is very high. Among them, the permeability such groups in the housing mortgage market will increase rapidly.

 

 

 

• Important opportunities and challenges: the Internet financial is rapidly rising

 

At present, the modern information technology represented by the Internet has had a significant impact on the traditional financial mode, especially the mobile payment, cloud computing, social networks and search engine changes. Obviously, the Internet brings not only the channel revolution, more important is the business model innovation, involves the production of re combination of resources industry chain as well as the new business model:

 

Value chain is the division and reorganization, new products and services, new distribution channels, and more extensive customer group. In this process, the commercial bank as the representative of the financial industry, the use of the Internet technology, launched online banking, mobile banking and e-commerce platform, lifted the electronic revolution channel; and the third party payment enterprises and network lending platform using the Internet platform into the financial industry, the consumer finance and commercial banks competition, mainly reflected in two aspects:

 

The third party payment enterprises: strong competitors to pay field.Consumer finance is not only for consumer credit, but also in the whole process of banks to provide financial services to the consumer behavior, especially the payment and settlement services. In recent years, commercial banks in the rapid development of Internet banking and other advanced secure and convenient payment field, greatly easing the pressure of counter. The third party payment companies in accelerating the development of electronic commerce, are constantly looking for alternatives to bank payment and settlement opportunities, and even China Mobile, Chinese Unicom600050.Shares)And other communications companies also launched a mobile phone payment settlement.2012Years6Month, the central bank announced95A new third party pay licence. In the1Years, the central bank has issued four payment of license plate, a total of196Enterprises to obtain different types of payment of license. The specific point of view, the central bank issued the license covers currency exchange, Internet payment, mobile payment, fixed phone pays, digital pay TV, issue and accept prepaid cards and bank card acceptance of seven types of business. Among them, the Internet to pay a huge potential market, competition is especially fierce.

 

Third party network lending platform: a new financing mode field.The Internet will not only pay treasure, fast money and three party payment enterprises into financial payment field, but also the Alibaba network loan company and three party network lending platform into central bank financing, traditional loan business of commercial banks are facing the impact of network business model. According to related statistics,2010Chinese network loans have reached130Billion yuan, and this one scale in national policies and the market is rising rapidly. The main driving force of network loan market so high growth or from the consumer finance and the huge demand for financing small and medium enterprises. Experts predict,20Years later, the society will enter the "Internet financial mode", payment convenient, search engines and social network reduces the cost of processing information, capital supply and demand both direct trading, can be achieved and the resource allocation efficiency of direct financing and indirect financing. Based on this judgment, the commercial banks "financial disintermediation" trend may be more and more obvious, if not seize opportunities for development of network finance, inevitably in the consumer financial competition, even in the strategic transformation of the whole work not completed.

 

 

 

• Relevant countermeasures

 

At present, although the development of consumer finance in China is still faced with many challenges, such as the income level is not high, the social security system is not perfect, personal credit system is not complete, consumption structure is not balanced, the uneven distribution of population and other factors. In this context, the construction of consumer finance system in China still has a long way to go. However, the current consumption trend of financial development has been very clear, the future will usher in a historic opportunity for development. The proposed commercial banks from the strategic planning as soon as possible, ahead of the layout, speed up the consumer finance business development. This is not only an important opportunity for the development of the retail banking, it also is an important way to deepen the transformation and structure adjustment.

 

Increase the allocation of resources, improving consumer credit business accounted for. Commercial banks should continue to increase investment in resources, improving consumer credit business accounted for, especially to card consumer loans in the housing mortgage loans, credit and business car consumption loans to speed up development, forming the core business and the main profit zone. Can be actively concerned about the rapid development of medical and health care, housing, tourism, home appliances and general consumer loan market, have to nurture and develop the market focus.

 

Increase the market subdivision, strengthen credit policy guidelines. From the customer point of classification, young rich group is an important customer groups of consumer credit. From the analysis of wealth dimension, wealthy groups in China (investment in financial assets in the50Million) strong on consumer credit product demand, the expected income and housing, car, education and luxury consumption will more clear and positive. At the same time, this group generally pay attention to wealth management, and accustomed to the use of consumer credit or payment products. From the analysis of the age dimension, high potential young consumer groups, especially in the housing mortgage loans and general consumer finance of higher demand, the next big space to improve the permeability.

 

Speed up the adjustment, optimization of consumption credit approval. To speed up the development of consumer credit, commercial banks should perfect consumer credit approval mode as soon as possible, to retail customers credit risk depends on the law of large numbers, standardized procedure management. To establish as soon as possible to adapt to the retail banking business characteristics of the loan approval system, the establishment of regional approval center, strengthen the standardization of product approval, exposure and centralized management, enhance the efficiency of examination and approval and approval degree of specialization.

 

Strengthen business cooperation, create large retail financial platform. Commercial banks should speed up the establishment of cooperative mechanism of retail financial plate, the relationship between the effective coordination of customer resource sharing, product development and cross selling, professional development center and the branch channel, is the core of the retail customer management synergy and retail channel power coordination, improve efficiency in the use of customer resources and channels, improve customer loyalty.

 

Strengthen product innovation, accelerate the development of the network financial. To strengthen consumer finance innovation, can focus on three major areas:

 

First of all, the traditional areas of innovation, canThe four increase product innovation: one is the housing mortgage loans, in addition to the traditional mortgage loans, real estate stocks around the consumer, pension, studying abroad and other housing mortgage product innovation; two is the credit card loan, focus on strengthening the bill staging, consumer, mail order stage divided period loan business innovation, optimize the approval process; three is the automobile consumption loans, perfect car loan mode, explore multi-channel car loan marketing model innovation, explore the second-hand car loans, vehicle loans without collateral, automobile consumption financial business; four is the general consumer credit, in health care, housing decoration, household appliances, tourism, education and growth potential of the larger products, focus on strengthening the marketing mode, the approval process, repayment methods and other aspects of innovation.

 

Secondly, strengthen collaborative innovation. Strengthen coordination linkage within the bank, the formation of collaborative innovation overall situation, mining internal customer resources and channel resources potential. Mainly includes two aspects: one is on strengthening the cooperation innovation public-private linkage. In the customer base, through innovative interactive marketing, such as a full range of customized products, market potential, development of consumer finance customer batch. Two is to strengthen the cooperative innovation in retail. For example, innovation of debit and credit cards in one product, customer master information assets and liabilities, precision marketing consumer financial products. At the same time, strengthen and improve mutual promoting, marketing innovation of retail product portfolio.

 

Finally, strengthening the network of bank innovation. Research and development for the individual consumer financial products, breakthroughs in key technologies of remote account and network credit verification and other difficulties, focus on the development of electronic commerce, mobile payment and network loans and other innovative products.