Countries of the credit bubble will not soon dashed, but growth will be difficult to maintain the current credit.In 2012 Chinese debt to gross domestic product (GDP) increased from 120% in 2007 to 180%.The rate of expansion so rapid test of the ability Chinese banking credit risk management, which led to concerns about financial instability.
But there is no time to panic.Compared with other economies, Chinese levels of credit medium.According to McKinsey Global
Institute, in 2007 on the eve of the outbreak of the financial crisis, America debt to GDP ratio reached 357%, now is still high at 350%.
Chinese high savings rate, not yet open capital project and low external debt also provides a buffer, there are no obvious factors led to the credit bust.However, may occur deeper problems in the future, each unit of debt on economic growth decline is particularly worrying.Fitch (Fitch) of the China banking analyst Zhu Xialian (Charlene
Chu) said, in the period from 2005 to 2008, each additional 1 yuan credit, can drive the GDP increased by RMB 0.71 yuan, but to 2009 to 2012 period, can drive the GDP increased by RMB 0.3 yuan.
At this rate, assuming Chinese nominal GDP growth target for the year 10% to 2018, the debt to GDP ratio will reach about 250%.For a developing country, it is a very high proportion.And if every 1 yuan debt increment in economic growth further down (from the current trend is possible), then the situation may be worse.
This may aggravate the fear of bad debts, prompting banks to strengthen capital, and lead to the 2018 debt servicing costs around from 11% of GDP in 2012 to about 15%.By that time, rising debt levels will constitute a real threat to China economy.
Tube China government measures have been taken to the recovery of mobility, but the sharp expansion of credit in the new leadership of the Chinese facing the problem: if the bad debt crisis and efforts to take excessive measures, may threaten the nascent economic recovery.
Since the 2008 outbreak of the global financial crisis, Chinese credit scale continues to expand, the leadership intends to initially to investment and promote economic growth fund.However, rising debt levels led to the outside world will face the crisis of bankruptcy of banks China over the next few years of worry.Some market participants estimated, China domestic debt and gross domestic product (GDP) ratio has exceeded 200%.To prevent this from happening, Chinese regulators have tried to make the banks and other financial institutions to a certain degree of contraction of credit scale. But so far, these efforts are not effective.Data released Thursday showed, Chinese financial institutions in March new RMB loans substantially increased to 1.06 yuan ($171000000000), up from 620000000000 yuan in February.The March social financing scale amounted to RMB 2.54 yuan, higher than February's 1.07 trillion yuan in January, only slightly lower than the highest level in history.
Fitch Ratings (Fitch Ratings Inc.) senior director Zhu Xialian (Charlene
Chu) said, these data reflect a fact, namely diversified Chinese present credit system is far higher than ever, the government may forward the guidance to the banking industry, the banking industry will be quick to do so, but now the market there are many other financial institution, informal instruction these institutions do not necessarily follow the supervision department.
Fitch lowered long-term local currency China issuer default rating, the reason is about risks to financial stability Chinese has rise.
The high savings rate, is not fully convertible capital project and strong economic growth means to cause short-term risks similar America financial crisis does not exist Chinese.Lower debt scale also means that when a problem arises, China government has sufficient strength to help the banking industry.Economists said, the risk is credit expansion trend is not sustainable.Is now slowing credit and economic growth, or face a crisis situation in the next few years, China government faces a dilemma.
The new leadership of the Chinese needs to show on the domestic economy control ability, but also the need to maintain the momentum of economic recovery.
The short term, credit growth is alluring, because it is able to support investment and consumption.From the past, Chinese central government and provincial government will vigorously promote economic growth in the early days, in order to prove their mettle, and win support.
The 7.9% year to the fourth quarter year-on-year GDP growth Chinese, ended six consecutive quarterly slowdown situation.This year first quarter GDP data will be announced monday.Widely expected, Chinese economic growth in the first quarter of 8%.
But the growth Chinese lending also sparked fears of inflation for Chinese.Credit Agricole group (Credit
Agricole) China economist Dariusz
Kowalczyk said, the second half of the year China government is likely to tighten credit.He is expected before the end of China central bank will raise interest rates two times.Credit surge will also affect the Chinese government effect of regulation on the property market, because some of the big city prices again rose sharply.
During the 2008-2010 financial crisis, in other parts of the world is in recession or sluggish recovery, China through a massive expansion of bank credit to achieve 10% GDP growth.Most of the credit to the infrastructure and real estate, led to the growth and prosperity.But some economists believe that, with the reduction of productive investment opportunities, corporate debt levels rising, this policy had dried up.
For fast economic growth difficult to sustain the concern has always been there in Chinese new leaders heart.Chinese President Xi Jinping said at the Boao forum for Asia this week, he thinks Chinese ultra high speed growth era has ended, the need for balance on other important issues of growth and.
The Australian central bank official Glenn
Stevens on Tuesday cautioned, China need to make credit growth is controlled, especially the non formal financial institutions, increasing the loans.Stevens said, Chinese present situation is the other countries have experienced at different times, as long as there are incentives to bypass normal banking, the shadow banking system and the risk will continue to expand.
It is not possible to predict whether Xi Jinping will take measures to adjust the economic structure, and local government leaders will implement the plan to cool the economy.The local government officials' promotion or not depends largely on the ability to promote local economic growth.
China researcher of world economic and Political Institute of the Academy of Social Sciences Zhang Bin said, he expects Chinese economic growth rate from 7.8% last year to 7.5% this year, is widely expected to less than about 8%.He said, this is because the current every yuan loan can bring economic growth rate is lower than in the past.He said, Chinese is currently facing a dilemma, need to make some trade-offs between short-term economic growth and financial stability.
New loans of a push factor is increased China reserves.Chinese central bank announced Thursday, as of the end of the first quarter, foreign exchange reserves by $3.31 a quarter trillion to $3.44.Higher than the same period last year's first quarter trade surplus and foreign capital inflows are once again increases the funds China financial system.
From the political point of view, the increase in foreign exchange reserves may make Chinese on the currency moves once again become the focus of global concern.China current-account surplus to GDP ratio (GDP) (key indicators are regarded as a measure of whether a currency is undervalued) in 2011 by the peak of 10.1% in 2007 to 1.9%, but rebounded to 2.3% in 2012.Considering the China trade surplus to reproduce the growth trend, may indicate the proportion has bottomed out in 2011.
This may mean that China again face needs to let the yuan appreciation pressure.The US dollar / Renminbi daily middle rate maintained at a relatively narrow range, this year the central bank has been trying to prevent the yuan Chinese sharply higher.So far this year, RMB appreciated by 0.6% against the dollar.
Peterson Institute of International Economics senior economist C. Fred
Bergsten said, was significantly increased China reserves will certainly be some USA congressmen as seeks to punish new evidence Chinese to currency manipulation by.But many economists believe that the 2.3% current account surplus as a percentage of GDP is acceptable.Chinese government officials have repeatedly said, they think the renminbi to a reasonable level, means that the yuan appreciation does not require significant, even without appreciation.
Tube China has completed the leadership transition, but not showing the new economic field.
The first quarter of Chinese new loans increased substantially.When the season of social financing scale reached a record 6.2 yuan trillion yuan ($1 USD).Social financing scale includes new loans, issuance of bonds and other forms of credit.In addition, at the end of 3 China foreign exchange reserves amounted to $3.44, $128400000000 increase in the first quarter.
All these seem to be back on the leadership term scenarios.China central bank bought dollars, lead to liquidity of foreign exchange reserves and the financial system to increase.However, can alleviate the China worries about economic growth should be the data.The new financing scale year-on-year growth of 58%, which will support the gross domestic product (GDP) increased more than the government's target of 7.5%.
However, a continuation of the previous term as leader of the policy will increase the risk of inflation and asset price bubbles.Although Chinese March consumer price index (CPI) an increase in a more modest 2.1%, but the credit expansion will only increase the upward pressure on prices.
Also of concern is China debt to GDP ratios in the rapidly rising.By the end of 2012, the proportion from 120% in 2007 rose to near 180%.At the current rate continues, by the end of 2013, this proportion will rise to 200%.This rapid growth led to a possible massive credit mismatch and non-performing assets of banks increased concerns.
Chinese central bank recently to curb credit growth initiatives only fear fear hands feet to drain liquidity from the financial system.In order to prevent future problems, central banks need to take more aggressive action.And the first quarter of credit and capital inflows may herald a future increase central bank may tighten policy.
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