In January this year, Chinese addedRMB(6.0673,0.0033,0.05%)Loans amounted to 1.32 yuan, hit a new high of four years, the social financing 2.58 yuan, refresh the historical record. Taking into account seasonal effects and China central bank[micro-blog]Credit control action, some Wall Street analysts believe that, Chinese credit growth did not like digital look so make a spurt of progress, Chinese central bank won't change significantly tighten monetary stance.

Nomura Securities China district chief economist Zhang Zhiwei think, so the scale of social financing are likely to come from the demand, it is not reflected in economy, but the economy lever. At present only the wait-and-see, observation China central bank action.

SG Chinese chief economist Yao Wei think, do not care about Chinese bank loans, credit growth remains slow.

The January credit growth even, also do not represent Chinese central bank will change the stance of monetary policy, because:

At the beginning of 1, 1-2 month new RMB loans are usually more than 1 yuan;

2, according to local news, the last week of January, the big four state-owned commercial bank under the pressure on the central bank credit contraction, the size of new loans reduced from 4400 yuan to 350000000000 yuan.

3, Spring Festival is over, China central bank began from the inter - bank market withdrawal from circulation of funds.

Moreover, Chinese social financing growth has continuous ten months down, grew 17.5% in January, dropped to the lowest point in 17 months, 17.9% growth in December last year.

Societe Generale thinks, Chinese credit growth rate is still more and more slowly, the future is likely to reflect the decline in economic growth.

UBS Chinese chief economist Wang Tao think, don't worry China sharp tightening of credit.

The January credit data show that, although the recent tight liquidity, the market more worried about trust and the shadow banking products, but credit growth is still very fast.

This may be because the central bank allows Chinese January credit relax, especially through bank loans to give appropriate loose, because the government also hopes to promote investment and GDP growth, just want to let credit growth slowed down.

Before the Spring Festival China central banks in the interbank market, monetary tightening may be avoiding bank lending growth too fast, or to avoid runaway lending, to tighten monetary did not like the market was worried about.

Bank of America Merrill Lynch China chief economist Lu Ting think, the central bank tightened monetary China and not really.

Market impact may not be determined. January credit growth has seasonal factors, but credit growth remains strong and consensus.

The market's first reaction may be positive credit data, because people have confidence in economic growth in the short term, but it will make people worry more about the financial system Chinese and upcoming to leverage.

Bank of America Merrill Lynch pointed out, January social financing high stems in part from the foreign currency loans is not an important part of scale increase. This part of the debt and not in the traditional sense of credit so much.

Bank of America Merrill Lynch is expected, although China January PMI data is weak, but the first quarter of this year the domestic economic growth is likely to be stable.

In short, January credit data and Chinese aggressive central bank's open market operations to tell us, Chinese central bank policy stance remains neutral, neither loose nor tight.