Against the global recession(Chinese standing at the starting point of economic recession)

In 2012 08 months 07 days By 2012 eighth

　　

Article / reporter Zhang BeiChen WeiYang Sen Xin Yunfei (Internship)

No way will always be straight, also does not have a price will rise forever, the climax will have trough. The reason is simple, but most people are willing to from the bones believe, tomorrow will be better than today.

Thirty years of reform and opening up has brought great wealth to the people, we began to enjoy the pleasures of modern life, has developed a set of their own financial management ideas, and had been used to spend the money tomorrow, do ahead of the budget......Imperceptibly we came to a turning point.

When the Greeks queueing up to receive relief in the street, to see the rapid decline in Spanish house prices, see the Americans faceOld-age pensionShrink the helpless, and even saw some home industry began to decline, we can't help in this hot summer feeling the economic winter cold.

We studyIn the Japanese economic downturn in twenty yearsFinancial management, an important experience can get is: in a bad case of the environment, more efforts can not get higher returns. Only this time, it will realize "small rich people, rich by the day".

　　It is time for us to make some change:Many studies about the global economic situation, do some financial adjustment. In the next few years, we are no longer the same wealth growth over the past thirty years, butWe should learn to protect their wealth, through the global recession.

Financial big inflection point

Sometimes, people like to poet's romantic vision of the future, design a fantastic career for himself; but most of the time, we need to rational thinking by economic scholars mind: whether tomorrow will be better than today?

1980-2007 years, the global economic growth of more than 3.5 times; 2.5 times the global GDP growth in real terms; the global stock market value grew nearly 14 times; the total value of financial assets from the per capita about $2700 to about $28500, this is a brilliant period of global economic expansion and wealth creation.

　　Fortunately, China reform is one of the starting this round of globalization development of several key events, it is equally important, fast development of our great achievements in 30 years of reform has also benefited from the world economy. In China, two generations of people have benefited from the 30 years of reform.

So, in the majority of young people's memory, parents rely on our own efforts from poverty to a well-off, the best of them is by virtue of their own hard work and wisdom to truly realize their dream of "China". So today, they will still be happy memories of his life struggle, optimistic to tell the children, as long as the intention to operate, life will become better and better......

But now, this situation is changing.

Economists generally believe that, because before the 2008 financial crisis the global economy has experienced a long period of prosperity, social optimism peaked, enterprise debt expansion, excessive consumption,Leave the economy lever at a very high level of.

Leverage the borrowing and investment activities are more frequent, larger, required less capital. But it also brings more risks: debt servicing difficulty increases, the error is amplified, reducing the chance of error correction. Thus, excessive leverage American real estate led to the subprime mortgage crisis, as a fuse, exposed the excessive leverage of the financial system, and even the excessive leverage of government, the global financial crisis outbreak.

There is no denying the fact,USA two rounds of "quantitative easing" and China "$4" as two shot in the arm, to make the global economy seems to be "full of vigor and vitality", but soon his "false prosperity" face. From all indications, the European debt crisis is only for different reaction with a sticking point.

From the Japanese experience, while fiscal policy helps to promote economic recovery, but can not improve the economy itself,Private consumption and investment is the key to maintaining the sustained economic growth.When the two cachexia, increased government spending is still be of no avail,Just like a marathon runner, the best result is 2 hour 30 minute, sometimes because of illness or injury to 3 hours, this time to restore to the doctor can, but if is because the usual training not cause physical decline, then no matter how many doctors be of no avail, because only the most basic method of improving physical fitness the practice is.

　　Have to admit, the world economy is in a deleveraging trend, recession and stagnation is likely to be a long process, but the body facing in the Chinese problem more difficult.Even if there is no excessive leverage problems, global economic recession will also contain China economy to rely on the external environment, coupled with the development of many contradictions on internal accumulation, a new round of reform is imminent crisis. We have experienced in the economic growth rate of decline, and how the recession will not fall on them?

The recession means what? When we with queries to search for answers, the Japanese economy to understand a lot of foreign economic and Trade University Xia Zhanyou vice president Asian economic community, gives us a lot of information. He referred to a Japanese friend already 94 years old this year, the seventy's of the last century, the friend has a nice villa in Tokyo, 20 kilometers away from the downtown area, a few years later he put the villa before 100000000 yen to sell, about 35 kilometers from the downtown area, in a set of 70000000 yen around the house, and in his 80 year old again to sell the house, in the 50 km away from the urban areas to buy a value of 20000000 yen two bedroom. Both times the difference becomes an important income of the family, to pay their own endowment and daily consumption. So for most Japanese, the house is kept getting smaller and smaller.

This is the so-called recessionWhen the two generation, Chinese are entrenched that the house should buy larger, car should be more for the better, with Japanese reality reminds us that day is not necessarily better. It has nothing to do with the personal ability and effort, work even as "worker", also do not have the real improvement. Perhaps Japan's high rate of Dutch act not only from their bones die a martyr's concept, more is due to the prolonged recession in confusion and despair of life.

In the past 30 years brilliant period to create wealth, people almost do not have to do what can enjoy the feast of the growth in global wealth, andWhen the depression came, it seems particularly important to do what choice.

America financial management, from good to bad example

In the global economic downturn, Americans have been difficult to own. From home to work, from insurance to investment, American life is undergoing the test.

The nineteenth Century financial investment boom in Britain, each person in the UK are financial investors, one of London's financial capacity is 2 ~ 3 times of other area. The twentieth Century financial investment boom in the American, every American financial investors, financial capacity of a Wall Street is comparable global.

This has led the world's financial power is not only mass win, but by the most abundant financial tools and many of the most outstanding global listing Corporation, and let China investors envy market norms and system health. However, in the face of the global economic recession, the most advantage of the Americans also have a personal financial difficulties.

　　The subprime mortgage crisis "cleaning" middle-class wealth

You may not have thought, American such from social system to the cultural background, and then to the financial system and the rules are associated with significant differences in our country, the closest country is with the Chinese financial habits. They just much earlier than we know must prepare himself for the pension plan, early know "money" meaning, have started to have a special liking to invest in real estate. Even the Americans in the early 90's.InternetWhen entering the stock market bubble madness, and madness before 2008 to enter the property market, the non rational chasing Shadie are fundamentally different from China No. Human greed and fear, run in the same groove.

Therefore, when in 2008 the sub-prime mortgage crisis sweeping American then evolved into a global financial crisis and economic recession, the hapless is those loans for real estate investment, the stock market crash led to assets shrink, the economic downturn trend, American life level also affected. USA famous pollster Pugh research center devoted to the living condition USA middle-class opinion polls, the conclusion is "a good day today America middle-class hit a bad time". In the poll, 53% of Americans think the middle class, this research and academic results almost. More than half of the middle class in the past 5 years that their living standards remain stagnant or even go backwards, the middle class on the life satisfaction of the proportion dropped to its lowest in more than 40 years.

1999 is American's most happy in life, when 57% of the middle class that their life is far better than in the past, think be worse than before the proportion is only 16%. In 2008 the situation changed, think that life is better than the past middle class population proportion dropped to 41%, while the number of old time, Miss sing be worse than before proportion than in 1999 almost doubled, reaching 31%.

　　The recession has a generation of financial rhythm

America real estate prices collapse, the stock market downturn, the workplace people especially those near retirement, sit on pins and needles.

On the one hand, housing continued to decline, and the loan has become more difficult; on the other hand, retirement account shrink is serious. Therefore, many people want to postpone retirement plans, to continue in the company more dry years, until completely without economic pressure. It sounds harsh, but this is the reality.

In American, there are tens of thousands of ordinary people when they are young to buy life insurance, general is in 20 years ago. At that time, low-cost, flexible is the biggest advantage of. They had expected inflation and interest rates low. Now the situation and they had similar, but they did not expect to have such a severe recession. Now these people are in an embarrassing situation, if he continues to a premium, so a lot of premium is a problem; if the insured, some benefits previously covered will lose. Similarly, if some people bought life insurance, higher premium is a difficult problem, and before the cumulative cash value may be a kind of "temptation", because the cash out, he would have a substantial amount of disposable cash, but if you do not intend to in the long run, he will still fall into financial dilemma.

Virginia, Dan and Susan who is 58 years old this year, they are going to give up life insurance. Dan retired from the army in 1998, up to now has been a civilian in the Ministry of national defense. In the Ministry of national defense, he has a life insurance policy, until he retired. In addition, he also enjoyed a pension in the army. It should be said, he has a good future of retirement. However, the economic crisis broke out, his pension account badly shrunk, retirement funds have greatly reduced. This means that, if he choose to surrender, and misfortune to die, so will the rest of his wife Susan is facing economic difficulties.

Even today, Americans than many European debt ridden countries much better, as long as there is a stable job, basic life should be guaranteed, but Americans are facing the biggest risk is that the future pension, because the economic situation is not clear, on the long-term financial or real estate investment completed pension plan is also full of risk.

After 2008, the Americans on the stock market and property market disappointed. A fixed income annuity products began to become an important way of managing money, the annuity is actually a kind of insurance investment, of course, by the insurance company management and, judging from the current situation, this also is not absolutely safe choice. Some Americans, began to invest in some American bonds in the crisis, but now American economy appears to be difficult recovery, investment in Treasury yields has been more and more low. In addition, some "local government bonds" also began to be paid attention to, in USA, some areas, local people hold local government bonds may reduce some taxes, income is also higher than bonds, but on the verge of bankruptcy as the government of California that the situation is not possible, and this investment only by the rich love, family is not suitable for ordinary USA.

This terrible place is a recession, the average American long-term financial habits have been disrupted, choice is less and less, perhaps their greatest wish is, spring come early economic recovery.

　　Tips: USA ordinary family financial management

The most typical America family structure is a couple with two children (children). According to the Census Bureau America community investigation and statistics, the family of the median annual income of $80600, accounted for more than 25% of the highest income family income starting point for 122800 dollars, and the highest annual income of the lowest income families for $50800. This kind of family's poverty line standard for the annual income of 21800 dollars. Data from the point of view, it seems most Gemini family have middle living conditions.

In the economic trend of steady years, a typical America middle-class families concerned financial problems is nothing more than a pension, real estate, financial investment and insurance aspects.

American social security burden of about 15% of revenue, and basic social security does not really solve the pension problems, according to the Fed's survey, only 35% of the USA family can enjoy social security outside the enterprise pension plans, so Americans aged mainly rely on social security and personal (pensions and savings) to solve.

And now China situation, ordinary Americans the largest consumer still is the house, no matter how much income, rent or buy a house, generally bring income of 20% ~ 30% in the house;In America, 29% of households directly hold a stock, 53% of the families directly hold 2 to 9 stocks.As the investment profit and buy stocks is very easy to lose money, so there is still a considerable part of the Americans with their own money to buy the fund, up to the professionals to take care of. As for the insurance, a multitude of names, including the housing insurance, car insurance, health insurance, life insurance, etc.,Among them, housing insurance, automobile insurance isLawProvisions must be boughtNo, not Shangjie automobile insurance, and the health and life insurance vary greatly, a family of 4 premium span, $100 to $1000 more are possible, these insurance monthly is a no small expenditure.

　Tips: American consumption concept

1 love overdraft consumption. AmericansCreditIn fact, not a penny, the bank also encourages them to use money in the future, therefore, will give consumers at least 45 days of overdraft interest free period. The Americans get wages, then in accordance with the overdrawn amount of money into the credit card, the repayment to the bank, and then began to cycle overdraft consumption under a. The bank is willing to do so, expect some people in the repayment date can not be repaid in full amount, the bank may charge overdraft interest. However, the bank also worry that some people will still not outstanding, and causes losses to the bank, so USA banks on Credit Card Cardholder spending and repayment monitoring very closely.

2. often installment. Americans like to use limited money as much as possible to buy more things. In addition to the house, the car, the vast majority of electrical appliances, furniture, also is the installment payment buy back. Americans love to enjoy everything possible to enjoy life, never wait to save enough money to buy what they need. So, when you see an American living in the villa, car, home to a variety of facilities, in fact many of those are not the whole paragraph.

3. live in the same house, account of self-reliance. In American, husband and wife separate accounts is a common phenomenon in a family. Husband and wife each open an account, all the living expenses of a sum of a record home, under normal circumstances, the couple each quarter or half a year on the common living expenses to an account, if the husband family spending large amounts, so his wife would take the initiative to the sum of money you spending plan to the husband's account. Now American family, only two accounts for a very general, but a family of three accounts of the phenomenon is also more and more. In addition to the couple each have one, the other is a family there. Both husband and wife each received salary, will take the initiative to the same amount of agreement beforehand the money deposit to the common account, the rest are deposited in his account.

4. gift sharing, sharing feelings. For most USA families, although both husband and wife are economically independent, but the feeling is shared. Most Americans think: between husband and wife no matter who is the friend, may become another friend, and every man's friend brought to the family benefits, and are all members of this family have in common. So, the couple in the friend gift or cost is shared by two people of husband and wife.

USA purchase, to understand these

The purchase of the property market, the stock market slump,TrustCan't buy, a lot of spare cash driven out of the country, set off a wave of real estate in the wave of American hunters. Although before the Greek, Spanish property hunters people have to in a complete mess, but after all the fundamental America economy far better than them. Whether it isBuffettOr USA financial executives, to invest American property chanted in time.

Now go to the bottom America property is appropriate, is hard to say, but we can understand a system of American property market pattern.

Who buy American house?

In foreign USA property, in addition to occupy absolute proportion of mainland and Hongkong Chinese, mainly overseas investors from Singapore and South korea.

Many of them through investment immigration way to American, with strong economic strength. These immigrants are often referred to as China of a new generation of rich, they often have their own companies in the country, or belong to the collar, ranging in age from 30 to 50 years, generally received higher education.

Children's education, the transfer of property, assets, to fight inflation and disperse the risk is the main motivation of Chinese buy a house, buy a house is to have people to environment good place to care.There are media reports, a 41 year old Shanghai residents last year for $200000, before the little China buyers interested in FloridaMeyersA large golf community in Fort, buy a house.He said, "Florida is really 'Sunshine State', climate is really comfortable, air quality is very good. Also, food is also very safe." Americans pay attention to "buy" and "comfort", and this agree without prior without previous consultation.

Buy a house who even students. Some students will buy a house around the school students to USA, since a room, other rental, rent can pay tuition and living expenses. Finish school and then sold the house to return home, so, can even reach "free school" purposes.

Non immigrant investors from the mainland Chinese also exist. In American foreigners buy a house, without any restrictions, tax law and American exactly the same. Foreigners to buy a house with a tourist visa USA. Some people even due to trust local friends or broker, even the houses are not, directly in the China orders.

Where transactions hot?

The Chinese like in the oldJinshanLosangeles, Boston, New York, and Miami City buy a house, the city is also very suitable for real estate investment. The fundamental reason lies in the big city, priority is immigration. The central area of housing prices, still rely on USA overall economic situation to decide.

The west coast of Losangeles has become one of the most popular areas Chinese mainland immigrants. Located in California, where both geography, topography, climate, resources, and population structure are very diversified. Four seasons spring like climate and a variety of ethnic culture of tolerance, has a unique attraction for Chinese immigrants. The local elite California Institute of Technology, including University of California at Los Angeles, nearly 100 universities. People love to see and hear "the school district room" concept, here has been fully embodied.

The specific geographic location of housing prices play a decisive role in the. In USA settlers believe, buy the cheapest house in the community would rather, do not buy the most expensive house in the poor community,Because the community has a direct impact on the price of the house in the future.As with any local, community and city level key lies in the school district, city planning, public occupation and average income, the crime rate and social welfare.

What type of house to buy?

USA house can be roughly divided into independent villa villa, Kang bucket and multi family housing investment.

Independent villa is the most common family residence, also known as House, is standing, with one or two layers, as well as the garden and garage. Homeowners have housing construction and the complete land property right. Owners can make their own maintenance, expansion and modification, no property management fees. But to pay not low repair cost.

Kang Doo villa is equivalent to the apartment buildings, the owners have their own housing property. The owners do not have their own maintenance, but the payment of property management fees, including fire insurance, the gardener fees, public utilities, garbage fees. The degree of luxury housing and public facilities related to the amount to $1000, 300 per month.

Multi family housing investment is more like the town villa, is composed of many house unit, a multi family housing is usually only one owner, because all units of the house can only be sold as a whole. But as can be rented separately, if to do a landlord, in America rent, it is the best choice. The tenant is usually students or young workers. In general, the owners pay for public facilities maintenance costs, such as management fees and charges, and the tenants pay the electricity and gas charges.

　　Costs, benefits and risks

In America both independent villa, villa or Kang Doo, in addition to the purchase cost, purchase annual real estate tax. Losangeles government rent is about 1.25% of the purchase price, specifically because of the city and a slightly different. If the owner does not pay rent for five consecutive years, the government has the right to the auction houses. In addition to rent, the owner usually buy fire insurance, the price is the price of housing around 0.35%.

Generally speaking, independent villas and villa is occupied Kang Doo, and multi family housing investment is used for investment. It was bought second sets of independent villa or villa Kang bucket as investment real. From the investment point of view, multi family housing investment is the better choice, professional investors will buy more households investment property, do their own landlord, directly or indirectly, property management, to obtain rental profits, as prices rise, prices and rents will increase.

Profit is another way to make a profit. Buy a house in the America generally need professional appraisers to assess the housing prices, prices depend on land prices, construction costs and other factors. In recent years American economic downturn, prices have been in the doldrums, and even in some areas housing prices lower than the price plus the cost of building. There is an unwritten statement in USA, if prices fell below the sum of the land and building cost, is the optimal timing of investment market.

In USA property transaction, whether the buyer or the seller would hire their own real estate broker transactions. This is because the housing transactions in the large amount of money, and involves a number of legal provisions, but also signed many files, process is very complex. Most of the houses have decades of history, and involved in bank loans. The real estate agent will also help customers to make the home inspection, proposals, negotiate price, supervision and smooth transfer.

The real estate information are open to the public, investors can find specific information through real estate broker house, such as housing size, modification date, house has no defect. A loyal and responsible for the real estate brokers can help you read these materials, and fully understand the advantages and problems of the housing.

Notable is, China investors very partial to new premises, and even the formation of prejudice. In fact, in addition to the old housing repair costs will be slightly higher, in American, effect of age on housing prices is very limited, especially in high-grade residential. Almost all of St. Mary Nuo independent house is built in the 1920-1940, the new independent villa prices not only than aihambra city is much higher, but also very value.

The real time, if capital gains, it is necessary to pay the capital gains tax. USA from the beginning of 2013, the capital gains tax according to the family income and property holding time length, ranging from 8%-39.6%.

Relatively speaking, if the property as an investment, investors are more inclined to purchase multi family housing rental investment, net of all charges, the rate of return can reach 4~6%. Through to rent the room to get positive cash flow, and the accumulation of net assets, waiting for the time to sell the property. Considering the risk, should pay attention to the price index, price and other factors.

Along with the overseas funds into the Losangeles area, several city Chinese gathered, such as St. Mary Nuo, Jacquet Sen, Pasadena, San Gabriel, Alhambra, Monterey Park City prices rise. From the current trend, in these places to buy a house is over or investment failure probability is not high.

Indeed, the real estate investment and speculation in real estate should be distinguished. If blindly purchase real estate prices, hope future earn price difference is very passive, especially the real estate bubble not long time. Active real estate investment should be according to the actual situation, choose the type of property. Carefully consider the rate of return, analysis against inflation, currency and feasibility of dispersed assets is the rational choice.

(special consultant: This paper American Kewei immovable property -- San Marino's real estate agent Ren Xianying, graduated from Fudan University in Shanghai, who has studied in Japan, American, and received a doctor's degree in biology.)

In those years, we in the USA stock speculation

When the flood -- speculation, is also a market collapse Eve

When China investors complain in the oil price has fallen to a fraction of the original, in fact should be glad, A shares of the environment has not reached the USA stock market tumble. Don't you see, in the USA listed China CompanySuntech powerFrom the highest point, shares have more than $80 today, fell to less than $2, dangdang.com, Renren shares also fell to the original fraction.Perhaps only in the full market, full of great risk market, investors can truly understand the temptation and evil in investment.

SpeculationU. S. stocksFrom the financial freedom to dissipate one's fortune

My friends around the United States, mostly graduated in twentieth Century and early 90's, find a job in America settled down. At that time, just to catch up with the "COM" technology stock boom, so some friends come into stock wave.

My friend Yu Fang is a web designer, the husband is a bank clerk, the couple have house and car, live at ease. However, the Internet crazy disturb their quiet life. The media rendering the upstart story, makes Yu Fang to move the heart, also began to speculate in the stock market. Like playing mahjong, beginners often can always win, she each transaction less earn up to 100, then make a sanwubo.

Yu Fang's husband's Bank financial analysts, at first very alert, know the stock this thing is not so funny, but the wife repeatedly succeed, so that he gradually lost its vigilance. Thought, can earn hundreds of thousands, if not tens of thousands of inputs, can earn several thousand? Why don't you come to fight big? They don't have much cash, in North America is in addition to borrow money from a friend, so will their property in the bank collateral assets, about one hundred thousand pieces of money into the stock market.

So every time we meet to chat, heard Yu Fang couple be jubilant to talk about the stock market by: "we make money quickly, in a few years to be retired."

Arrived 90 time end, almost all financial institutions are analysis of Internet Co's stock bubble, and again warned that the bubble will soon be broken. But when people really hard ah, who advice does not listen, a large number of individual investors flocked to the Nasdaq, the main speculation QQQ shares (100 typical companies in the NASDAQ index, similar to the "Shanghai 50"). They will NASDAQ from 2500 all the way up to 4500 points. From the beginning of 2000, very few people talk about the stock bubbles, is probably the "wolf" cry too many times, no one believed. But the NASDAQ will exceed the roadJones"Rattling" sound, is a higher and higher wave (the Dow has more than 10000 points). Less than a month, the Nasdaq was off 5000 points!

Also in those two years, I also can not withstand the temptation, took out a $20000 investment "money", the nature, start again and again procurable, soon a cost of $20000 on speculation became 10 million, and like all speculators, I really regret for too little, the heart wants is put into 100000 pieces, not at the moment there are 500000? At the stock market are still increasing, feel unlike the bubble, and then put into 100000, and Mrs. Yu Fang thought, expecting quadrupled again, can retire around the world.

But in the people be jubilant occasion, a sudden drop in the nasdaq. At first everyone hold fluky psychology, think just short of a slight adjustment, still continue to buy in the so-called "low".In the thriving breeding in the risk, is often the most easily ignored by people and the loss of vigilance.

More than 5000 points from 2000 March NASDAQ record peak, continuous underground fell to 2400 points up and down, and then the party, we a few "speculators" is already not the stock market high pride, dare not overweight, but 2400 is the bottom, can rebound, the loss of the money back to meet. While Yu Fang was more like lose the red eye gambler, to real estate assets of money into the stock market, her hands to the credit card companies, borrowed is interest, decided to finally make a bet.

Finally, the NASDAQ fell 1100 points, fell more than 80%. Loss of investors in the face of such fierce market, really want to cry but no tears. Who would have thought the NASDAQ after the frenzied revenge will come so cruel. I invested 120000 capital, from the highest point of 20 in case of road dropped to 7 million, the actual loss of 50000 dollars. Fortunately, I was more than 2000 points out, is a friend to at least one. Friends in the loss of $100000 is a little something, and Yu Fang is the worst, the house was close to the bank, also owe a lot of credit card debt, finally had to declare bankruptcy, can dissipate one's fortune.

Until 12 years later, the NASDAQ index is back to around 3000, the weakened.

　USA "speculation": a multi market forces

One event succeeds another., you Changba me play. 2001 "COM" shortly after USA boom, real estate began to heat up, the interest is getting lower and lower, prices are rising up nights.

It was the turn to buy old classmates Zhang eyebrow eyes smiled: "look, or good house, visible and tangible, prices rise I feel shy." He took advantage of low interest rates and borrowing from banks, sell the small room for a big villa, also began to learn "speculation".

Then there are a lot of "speculation" study class, how to teach real small broad, with the financial lever to "air five", or even "up ten". Self lives in a large villa mortgaged to the bank by Lao Zhang, get a lot of cash, buy two apartments are rented out, the rent to maintain the monthly mortgage, then put two apartment mortgaged to the bank, to lend money, buying two apartments. He had to "borrow" method, constantly so, finally has 10 apartments. Look at their "property" is increasing, he more and more satisfied, every party be jubilant. And IMore and more, it was a few years ago we fry "COM" at the scene,The only difference is the fried tool into a house.

I and a few have stocks of buddy said, they also have to respond, "yes, Mr. Zhang and we did not like? As the man advise him bad ". I like the US, they don't listen to advice, said "I and you do not like, you are playing an empty, I the house but the real thing, but the price is certainly not fall".

Have studied American housing buddy said, "who said that prices will not fall? In the past 100 years, America price ups and downs from time to time ". Can I immediately retorted: "house prices up and down is normal, I even had a, fell 10%, or even 15% does not matter, I cash flow is very abundant, hold." My brother said: "if prices fell 25%?" I saw Mr. Zhang face a black, cut nails gekido: "America prices could never fall!"

Say to the children cannot contend for, say on a baffle others money mean. I think we these stocks fiasco friend, is in the "envy envy hate" him, therefore can only choose to wish him good luck.

Unfortunately, good times don't last long, in 2006 July, America prices suddenly fall, I was not care, think it is temporary, but never thought this or a house, unexpectedly also and "COM" have different approaches but equally satisfactory results in the fall, has been returned to its lowest since 2002. In recent years, every time I see Lao Zhang, only to feel his face more and more ugly, absolutely can't put prices......

At the same time, in 2008 after the financial tsunami, USA market is down, everyone fled the stock market, mostly in very low cut, that the stock market is "the river flows to the East", never to return.Who can expect, the Dow Jones index dropped to 7000 points but stopped, then all the way up to more than 13000 points at the beginning of this year, the highest point in history, distance is not far away. And USA prices fell to 2002 lows, still stumbling endlessly, there may be back in 1998, or even 1996 price, compared to the highest point down to 50%. USA housing market, the trend of the stock market, once again let us below the glasses!

Results and Yu Fang as a couple, now our party will please not to Lao zhang.

(the writerChen SijinFormer Bankers Trust and Nasdaq advanced financial software development division,Credit SuisseVice president, vice president, securities investment department assistant American bank securities company, currently resides in Toronto Canada, RenRoyal Bank of CanadaSenior consultant the risk management department)

Without money! The European "pigs" lazy to fade

Over the years the European common high welfare and leisurely life, has made the European financial consciousness gradually degenerated, so, in the face of global economic downturn, they are always passive. Five of them are typical of the "lazy" countries, known as the "European pig country" (Pigs), namely, Portugal (P), Ireland (I), Italy (I), Greece (G) and Spain (S .

　The family had no money, how can you still do?

"New York Times" writer Russell shorto recently in the newspaper Web site published articles, the life the Greeks were described, "left leaning mainstream daily a Greek journalist is already four months no salary, his colleagues are so. Even so, still almost no staff turnover from the newspaper (now the newspaper bankrupt), because after the resignation was nowhere to go. In contrast, Vafiadis a situation than the young reporter better, although the 56 year old Vafiadis has in September last year, he worked 10 years construction company (company layoffs by nearly 1000 people cut to two), but his wife work lies (even if the salary is also shrinking) -- do cook in a kindergarten cafeteria."

Downsizing is not what, more terrible is characterized in that the Vafiadis has no savings at home, because he has spent his life savings to pay the down payment to buy a house when the 2000.

In the euro zone, Greek blindly try to imitate others, but at the cost of deviating from their natural advantages and way of life. Some people say that "Modern Greek national spirit is the debt ridden America consumerism fake version", their loan to buy a luxury car, like life, consumption as the rich people, they relax rather than operating an efficient economy.

But now, many of the indicators are that, Greece is in the modern western countries have never experienced.

　　Since 2009, there have been 1/4 Greek companies, half of the small business says it unable to pay wages. In the first half of 2011, the Greek Dutch act rate up to 40%. A barter economy has suddenly come to the fore, because people were trying to find the emergency way beyond the broken financial system. 25 year olds have nearly half the people are unemployed, in September last year, the government sponsored seminar in Australia the number is only 42, and a year later they reached 12000. People will have about 1/3 of the money from a bank account is taken out, many people put their savings pool side buried in the backyard, in bed or a sigh: "who would trust a Greek bank?"

According to the Greek agricultural artificial says, in 2008 to 2010 (when the crisis has not even hit the top),With the disappearance of "Euro capitalism" dream, 38000 people have been lost or abandoned the work, back to the land,Usually returns to the island's hometown. Former accountants and web designers are now Naxos island the cultivation of potatoes, in the island of Crete take care of smallWheat field. A year ago could not bear a civil service pay cuts over Athens and give up the work will want to bet on a "poisonous horse genus" herbs, his room filled with big box store products, waiting to Athens sold in the market.

To find the feasibility is a crisis in the country, from the individual stories may see a glimmer of hope, but the reality is that more and more people have no countermeasures. Eventually Greece what will happen, I will depend on the global economy environment.

　　Spain: carrying debt, with prices jump

Gustaf Kanter meter this year 60 years old, have doctoral degrees in architecture, is a university professor of Spanish, is also the Barcelona B23 construction company partner and chief executive officer, and also served as a BeijingChina building(601668,SharesThe company's chief architectural advisor). He has a house of his own in Spain's second largest city Barcelona, rent a house to live in Beijing, compared with many now face a crisis of the Spaniards, he apparently friends.

In 2008, British newspapers began to be poker-faced reported the problem of Spain, Gustaf began to realize himself and the people around him life has begun to change. Spain is one of the best European welfare state, improve the national health insurance coverage, free public education, can retire at 65. After the outbreak of the crisis, government austerity, high welfare enjoyed by compression in greatly, such as Gustaf middle also began to worry about their pensions, even though he believes in care for the elderly, many Spanish families can provide strong support, but worse is, the major problems currently facing Spain is the unemployment,30 years old of the following youth unemployment rate has reached 50%,This is a very scary numbers. If the situation continues to deteriorate, rely on their pension hope will increasingly slim.

Gustaf told this reporter,Before the crisis, in addition to enjoy high benefits provided by the government, the Spaniards don't financeThis, they even know nothing at all; and in the aftermath of the crisis, Spain ordinary people do not even what effective measures, they will not do the investment, for fear of losing his property, the current crisis, who do not want to risk.

Although he does not exist the problem of unemployment, but Gustaf think, because the real estate market is already saturated, credit is restricted, the building industry is in crisis, compared with 5 years ago already cannot be mentioned in the same breath. Before the crisis, Spain's real estate market has experienced a period of prosperity for a long, although the Spaniards do not understand finance, but with an interest in real estate investment, which causes many social economy: a large number of the last century seventy or eighty's "baby boom" set up the family, single parent family and the Ding Ke family increase because of the demand for housing increased; a lot of Latin American immigrants also increased the demand for housing; some Spanish coastal city of the sun and the beach, has always been the preferred way of Germany, Britain and other European countries resort; and most importantly, Spain's per capita income since 80's of last century was significantly increased, more and more people can therefore "buy a house dream".

Before 1960, most people to rent, but the last century 70's after the stagflation. A wave after wave of rising prices for the Spaniards found, has a set of real estate is the most secure way of investment. The Spaniards took most of the wealth is invested property, even in the lowest income families, there are about 10% has second sets of real estate. However, the prosperity of the real estate market also let troubled Spain paid a heavy price, because in order to buy a house, borrowed a lot of money.

A major concern today, the Spanish economy, is also the main reason for the rating agencies to cut Spain's credit rating, is up to two times more than the GDP private sector debt -- although the Spanish public debt levels in today in the European Union is not high. In 2009, loans to developers, builders and buy a house of the Spanish bank loans reached 1.11 trillion, equivalent to 105% of Spain's GDP, the Spanish private sector loans accounted for 60.3%, the proportion is higher than that in the mid 90 century. At present, 323000000000 euro assets and real estate developers loan in the bank account, close to 175000000000 euros by the Spanish government as "troubled assets".

So far, the Spanish real estate market has fallen by about 35%, according to industry analysis, the Spanish real estate bubble to such a degree, is still young, prices will inevitably fall again. The current price trend, is from the top of the hill drop stones, it seems, it fell on the mountainside, fall to the bottom, or is more low-lying basin, takes time.

　　Buy a house, the Spaniard only assets, has become the culprit most Spaniards assets shrink,The Spanish economy a huge blow, a small amount of savings of many families previously saved are shrinking, they only by changing the wasteful consumption habits to live more frugally.

　　Italy: financial management? No idea. The government do it

The 27 year old Laura to China already five years, initially to study in Beijing Chinese, has now settled in Beijing, the authentic Beijing daughter-in-law. Listen to Laura told Italian, than listen to various financial commentators talk about the European debt crisis is more lively, don't stack economic data can make people feel.

Beijing is the wife Laura every once in Italy to see her family, it was a very ordinary family in Italy, living in a suburban town north of Italy, Laura told us, Italy isn't as big as Beijing, even live in the suburbs, work in the city. It's about 20 minutes by car, but Italy also No traffic jams.

Laura home is a 300 years of history in Italy house, owned a large tract of farmland around the garden and three layers of old buildings, lived 13 family members, but not crowded. According to Laura said, the house is many years ago her grandfather bought, now grandmother in her name, if you want to transfer to the children who need housing assessment price 15% tax. In Italy, many of these very old house, many families to be handed down from age to age, but there are also quite a few people need loans to have their own house.

In China, ordinary people feel the economic recovery after the financial crisis in 2008, and then there was the debt crisis in Europe, but in the eyes of the Italians, after the financial crisis in 2008 the economy has been very depressed, has been bad for four or five years, the people's life has been a great influence. Laura a friend's mom in state-owned enterprises (work refers to the police, the government administrative departments) for 15 years, before is 1500 euros a month, but now has 3 consecutive monthly take only 700 euros, the main reason is that the government pay a lot of taxes. She has been divorced, no husband, have two children, one has been independent, another was still in University, in addition, the family must pay 600 euros monthly mortgage, life has been difficult to continue. According to Laura said, in Italy, a month, a family of three spends almost takes the 2000 euro (including 600 euros in loans), but at present Italy per capita wages only 1300 euros / month, that is to say, even if two people are working to support his family was very poor.

Although there is no Spanish so high rate of unemployment, but young people in Italy after graduation is also very difficult to find a stable job, Laura sister art major, now internship in a gallery, no exercitation salary, also do not know the future can not find a suitable job. The economic downturn, five years have been enterprises have closed, now Italy many enterprises to hire only recruit interns, half a year and then find other interns to replace, so you can pay lower salaries, generally about 400 euros.

See from Laura description, many Italians to the government or very disappointed, the former Prime MinisterBerlusconiEvaluation is especially bad, evil deeds of their family party will talk about the old shell in term of office. But in the face of the crisis, the economist who theyMario•MontiIt seems quite confident, that the situation in Italy is stronger than that of Greece and Spain, the government will eventually be able to solve the immediate dilemma.

Laura admits, in the face of the crisis and recession, most Italians did not response to himself, the people around her and no financial awareness. In terms of investment, Laura think Chinese because the money will do the investment, for example, China people, buying a car, but in Italy even though the car is cheaper than China sells are loans to buy; Chinese like buy a house investment, but Italy ordinary people do not have the money to buy housing investment, they are more to the extra money in the bank, and the savings will not be too much. Although many people understand that affected by the economic crisis, the country's pension has a huge gap, also eat next year's food, but the high welfare past let them believe that their life is still guaranteed, even has lived, worked for five years in the Chinese Laura, also plans to return to his hometown in future payment of certainEndowment insurance, spent his life in Italy.

　The global economy first wear

We in the financial gains and losses, largely not dominated by their own. Each country, market linkage, containment, is a big and complicated proposition, but we also should as far as possible to find out which of the main sequence.

Greek street wearing gorgeous clothes bread old woman, 600 private enterprises in Zhejiang and an emergency funding from government, what is the relationship between them?

Currency, foreign exchange, energy, gold, import and export, industrial layout...... All of these are far-reaching, the integration of the global economy has put 5200000000 people tied to a rope.

　China into the European debt crisis "scapegoat"

The European debt crisis, these countries people "lazy" years of accumulation of evil, and the eurozone itself is fraught with problems.

Germany, France's economy is relatively developed, they rely on the advantage industries, such as aircraft, automobile manufacturing, still can maintain robust growth. But Greece, Italy and other countries the irrational industrial structure, lack of competitiveness, inEmerging marketBefore the national fast growing industry strength, these countries no defense, they are very difficult to complete the industrial revolution in the short term, but not by devaluing the currency to control the export competitiveness, life increasingly difficult.

Slow growth, high unemployment, the government of these countries in order to please the voters of reform, conservative, maintain high welfare and social security costs, eventually lead to high government spending, high debt. Not to mention itself and corruption and falsified data problems in these countries.

A well-known BloggerChopperThink, no matter how financiers, politicians spend idea, the euro zone may temporarily solve the present predicament, but ultimately could not escape the fate of collapse. At present, the euro zone should not only be about economic law, but also to face the world economic cycle test.

For Chinese, reduce the overall demand in Europe, as well as the depreciation of the euro, is the most direct impact of factors. Be the first to bear the brunt of export enterprises. According to media reports, the European debt crisis of Guangdong and Zhejiang, export enterprises caused obvious, both ship heavy industry machinery, household electrical appliances are not toys or clothing impact.

The good news is, China reliance on exports for economic growth has begun to decline in 2008: China net exports accounted for 7.7% of GDP in 2011, down to 2.6%. The bad news is that, due to a huge base, is still a large number of workers unemployed as export enterprises of depression, which means that the decline China overall consumption level and demand, adverse to the long-term development.

These effects are not all. "Will turn against China western society in the short term, is the exchange rate today, tomorrow may be other, compared with the Chinese just joined WTO, the international environment is more complex and severe." EconomistLi DaokuiSays.

　　American "perfect" China coal backlog

USA "New York Times" recently published an article entitled "China Economy: disaster is coming? Article. The tangled mentality describes various Chinese foreigners see scene -- "China housing construction activity has stopped" "Chinese all have large uninhabited buildings from the mine in Henan Province, the town dirty, to Inner Mongolia's so-called ghost town, can see the scene".

　American don't want China rapid rise, and that Chinese economic downturn too fast. But for Chinese today economic slowdown, large backlog of coal port situation, America absolutely cannot escape responsibility.

If not America Wall Street bad boy created the subprime crisis, China wouldn't haveStimulus plan four trillion. The big rush to rescue the city policy, and not in the manufacturing industry can improve the competitive strength of the country, but too much input infrastructure can not be real profits, thus making the large amount of primary energy, short-term demand. When the particle painkillers gradually after failure, see is the energy surplus.

　　The scourge of China don't say, America still Chinese a fundamental solution, manufacturing industry of American withdraw.

AlthoughJobsHe insisted on Apple's products in very labor Chinese production, but after that, manufacturing business to America reflux native seems really happened. American Google Corporation new streaming media player, it will be USA local producers, and not made in Chinese or other countries.

In February of this year showed a 106 USA manufacturing executives surveyed, 37% of executives said the company is considering or planning, production from Chinese moved back to USA native. Although this andObamaIn recent years the government policy on the manufacturing industry is inseparable from the support, but also as the economistYe TanSay, manufacturing reflow, ostensibly because of the increased cost of China workers, is actually Chinese workers "wages decline in efficiency".

Ye Tan points out, many university opened some useless professional, it is mainly to provide faculty work for some people, but for the enterprise really need high-end technology workers, but the lack of efficient, effective training channels. USA manufacturing production workers per hour average is about three times China workers.

Under the national industrial Chinese contest, such as education weak short term is relentlessly scar, and become the focus of opposition onslaught.Manufacturing Chinese if it is large-scale evacuation, the port of coal backlog will be more and more.

It's hard to say how many will become visible Chinese and America economic competition, it is difficult to predict future government policies to deal with how the global competition, however, for the two time in a month to cut interest rates, has exceeded market expectations. National policy easing to boost the pace of economic recovery is urgent, the investment to stimulate employment may be one of the fundamental purposes.

Dollar assets is Noah's Ark?

No matter is the dollar, and dollar assets, hit into as if overnight.

In the global scope, is relatively good economic fundamentals America. Although America economy remains problematic, for recovery and adjustment of the policy debate has never ceased, the dollar index rebounded from last May to mid July of this year, growth has reached 13%. The dollar exchange rate showed obvious strong.

American of the real estate industry is making great efforts to attract Chinese buyers, like twenty years ago to Japanese buyers. ToSince China a new batch of buyers are America massive purchase of real estate, will be a large number of dollars into the American residential real estate market.

In a global recession, US dollar assets can really escape?

The domestic share this view of a few people. Especially in the Chinese GDP slowdown, exports fell and cut interest rates two times, the yuan against the dollar is expected to improve.

About the problem of RMB exchange rate is still in dispute,Many export enterprises have begun to hoard dollars.In the past, Chinese export enterprises in the receipt of payment will sell their dollar earnings to the bank immediately, in exchange for the ongoing appreciation of the renminbi. Now due to the expected change, these companies are as far as possible, long time holding their dollars. Some reports pointed out that, because of the devaluation of the yuan is expected, the bank's foreign exchange reserves are becoming less and less.

Although America economy is a better economies now global big, but USA economic pain is not good treatment.

Research America Columbia University Earth Science Institute Geoffrey Sax in an interview with the media, so Chinese, explores the reasons why the American economic problems: "in the process of globalization, USA manufacturing loss of international competitiveness is America economic structural problems. America the prosperity of the real estate industry over the past ten years, is USA government and the Federal Reserve in the domestic manufacturing industry decline background, take the initiative to deal with the negative impact of globalization results. The essence of this approach is to use the short term appears to be effective way, to solve the long-term structural problems. But the magic is not present, the result is very bad -- the bubble burst, the real estate collapse, the banking industry also emerge in an endless stream into trouble."

As Chinese exports of private enterprises occupy first place in the Foxconn boss,Terry GouRecently even boldly predicted: 2013 USA (economic) must not good.

Dollar assets the "Noah's Ark", although powerful, but has been in a disastrous state.

Buy gold in times of trouble?

As the saying goes, buy gold in times of trouble. The present economic instability, gold is appropriate?

Gold is not Chinese say. Before gold ten year bull market is global liquidity, mainly is the depreciation of the dollar. With the dollar rebound bottom, and the depreciation of the euro, gold has since last year historic high of $1921 / oz fell 17%, the dollar is increasingly likely to replace gold has become the main safe haven assets.

The short term can only expect support for gold prices, only America I do not know when it will launch QE3, leading to the depreciation of the dollar. Due to the global set off America interest flows, recent economic data is not optimistic, and the appreciation of the dollar led some companies to America shrinking profits, the market for QE3 expected stronger, for the already weak prices a year, help turn that is. Therefore, if the government introduced policies to stimulate the USA QE3, gold price breakthrough in the early high of $2000 an ounce is likely to.

However, hold the opposite view that the same number, the Fed's June meeting minutes without a clear signal to QE3, some members believe that the recent situation that requires further easing measures, other members considered that further easing measures will bring danger to the government bond market. Therefore, America QE3 can eventually appear unable to accurately forecast, if not issued, gold could sharply.

In addition, the July 13th European Moodie downgraded Italy's sovereign rating of two stalls, decreased from A3 to Baa2, which leads to the periphery of the euro area sovereign debt prices diving, the euro once again hit a two-year low. In July 17th, Moodie went down the Italy banking industry rating, perhaps Italy will become a time bomb deepening European debt crisis. The short term, the European debt crisis is difficult to resolve, to continue bearish for gold and other precious metals. European funds if fled to USA, liquidity to also can reduce QE3 expected.

In any case, risk investment gold can not be belittled.

　　Japan: "live on" twenty years

Xia Zhanyou.

Foreign economic and Trade University vice president of Asian Economic Community Research Institute of Japan, to understand the deep, from 1977 to 1979, to be sent to Japan to study abroad, study the Japanese economy, modern literature and Japanese grammar three professional, 1986 ~ 1990 and Tokyo University economic opportunity of studying abroad, studying for a master's degree in the world economy, 1992The Ministry of CommerceIn the Japanese Embassy, a diplomat for 4 years, after that, for many years, the summer Zhanyou has been a visiting professor in Japan a lot of famous university.

The global economic crisis "strangulation",In our discussion and fear of global recession, only the Japanese really experienced a long recession station. At this point, Japan lost twenty years for all of us is so precious, remind us that we see the crisis, also reminds us that we learn to cope with.

After 10 years in Japan's work and life, summer Zhanyou together through and ordinary Japanese people lived tram, low rent housing, to the members of Congress, to a community manager he had thorough contact.

Japan is one of the earliest emerging Asian countries, "World War II" after only 23 years to become the world's second largest economy. Summer Zhanyou first Japan Japan is the best time when, at that time he always said: what time China can catch up with Japan! The most obvious difference is, in Japan as long as the money can buy anything, very convenient, abundant material, and then China is when the pre reform very backward and confused, shortage of materials. Xia Zhanyou recalled: "at that time to return our toilet paper and salad oil are back, fresh-keeping film and chocolate food is the domestic has never seen."

Economists think, the Japanese economy the real turning is forced to rise in 1984 "Plaza Agreement" in the first year of Japanese yen, but many eyes Heisei (1989) years, the origin is Japan's "lost twenty years".

　　The financial and economic collapse of the

Xia Zhanyou on the situation in mind, in his view the collapse of Japan's bubble economy, the stock market and property market before the 2008 crisis situation with Chinese as like as two peas, popular speculation, housing prices skyrocketing, as long as the stocks to make money, the property market will never decline, the bank will never fail.

　　In the house when the most crazy Japanese think, the 23 District of Tokyo sold can buy the whole America,A piece of land is so big in Tokyo Ginza postcards, even the foot stand can sell one hundred million yen, 8000000 yuan. Many Japanese loan to buy a house, banks also encourage people to buy a house loan, but those loans will eventually become bad debts, almost all of the Japanese were saddled with heavy debt.The stock market is from the 38915 most crazy, collapsed and then a long time, until now also not 9000.Nippon Telegraph and Telephone Corp stock listing is as high as 900000 yen a, everyone rushing to buy, up to the maximum of 340 in stock, and now less than 300000 yen for a stock, you want to sell also sells do not go out. After 20 years of adjustment, many large companies in Japan are in the 100 yen 100 yen a, what concept, even a bottle of coke can not buy (coke price of about 120 ~ 150 yen).

In the rapid development of the global economy, Japan has experienced a long period of recession, although the actual life of the Japanese bubble economy has not changed much, although the hollowing out of the domestic industry caused the tax will be less and less space, governments are increasingly poor, but the collapse of the stock market and real, let the Japanese unusually cautious in finance choice, even though the Bank of Japan are basically zero interest rates, most middle class families still in savings based, because Japan has not seen the inflation of nearly 30 years, because of the increasing appreciation of the yen, Japan's inflation rate continued to show negative, they are not "run win CPI" this topic.

According to statistics, Japan's personal financial assets in savings accounts for nearly half of the proportion, this in the world's major developed countries is quite high, half of the assets belong to breakeven operation, so the present low pay, low risk preference in asset structure, high risk market development problems. In twentieth Century 80 time, foreign securities aggressively in Akasaka, Roppongi area, is everyone thought will bid farewell to the era of savings into investment, the age, the bursting of the bubble economy to make these securities company soon pull, disappeared Not the least trace was found.

　"Mrs Watanabe" zero interest rate deposits by

In the 90's of the last century after the financial crisis, the Japanese bank savings interest rates to 0.02%, known as the "zero interest rate". This policy makes many originally on bank interest financing housewife is also considering other financial strategy. One of the seemingly the most simple way, is in the hands of the money in foreign currency, to the higher interest of foreign banks. And in this way once the skilled operation, it evolved into a familiar one word -- activity.

At that time, the housewives occupying the Japanese foreign exchange margin market in 1/3 turnover, formed a powerful financial clout "lady legion". Japanese housewives like sell yen, to buy bank interest rates higher in Australia or New Zealand, and stored in a local bank. New Zealanders have discovered many surname "W atanabe Japanese Account" (Watanabe, the Japanese one of four big surnames), we call these foreign exchange market on the Japanese housewives as "Watanabe Oota" (Mrs Watanabe). In this way, the term "Watanabe Oota" on Japanese women pulled on the relationship.

In 2007, "Mrs Watanabe" selling yen. Buy the currencies of behavior, and even become an important reason for the yen continued to decline, the nickname is also visible to the world, but with the financial crisis spread, other major economies has been cut interest rates to stimulate the economy, "Mrs Watanabe" profit space has been squeezed, the impact of the global crisis that is five the maximum of japanese.

In addition to the different currency and bank savings, another important way of managing money Japanese choice is to buy Treasury bonds. 1.9 times the Japanese government bonds has more than GDP, in the OECD is the most terrible, even far higher than the current crisis of European debt powers, and, the issuance of treasury bonds to the rebate, so Japan has faced a vicious cycle after debt, in the issuance of treasury bonds, according to the international monetary Fund (IMF) prediction, in 2014 the Japanese government debt will reach more than 2.3 times GDP. Although have a huge fiscal deficit, but because the Japanese government bond holders about 95% Japanese investors, and the personal financial assets of 1500 trillion yen scale, so the macro government debt repayment problems can be solved at home, not like the European country such as Greece's debt was 90% of foreign investors, appear unable to repay external debt, or even fall into the country is on the verge of bankruptcy.

　　The pensioners, reluctant to turn on an electric light

Japan is aging very seriously, long recession that the government is unable to solve the pension problem. "In Japan, if your application is to begin at the age of 60 pension, annual average only 550000 yen, 45800 yen per month; if postponed to 65 years to apply for, every year can get 790000 yen, a monthly average of 65800 yen to 70 years; if you apply again, every year can get 1120000 yen, also is the monthly average of 93300 yen," Xia Zhanyou said.

In this way, the government encourages everyone to delay retirement, so many Japanese are re employment after retirement. In Japan, highway toll, food factories do light processing workers, open bus driver and University canteens, supermarkets, service personnel are grey-haired man. In these 20 years, Japanese learned scant oneself in food and clothes, clench one's teeth life, are only on a pension of the elderly, in order to save electricity can't even turn on the light, by the light of television at the table for dinner. In fact, the majority of Japanese are aware can not live only rely on the government to provide pension, they are keen to buy can achieve better pension plan, commercial insurance, but also to many expenditures in the above.

In Japan, most of the financial institutions with an "plan of life", "financial planning" such a service project, but by the certified financial planner tailored to customers or financial plan. In recent years, because Japan's per capita income has been reduced, the pension problem and has become a topic of concern in the community, young people have also started to feel the pressure of pension finance and future, custom "life planning", "financial planning" the crowd began to young people into the.

Their eyes China economy

The global economic recession, China economy alone is difficult,If the domestic trouble and foreign invasion attack, what is a scene?Have a look of officials and economists are saying.

Premier Wen jiabao:

Economic difficulties may continue for a period of time

"At present, China's economic growth target interval is set at the beginning of the year, steady growth policy measures are to see results, the whole economic operation of present slow stabilised situation. However, we should also clearly see, the economy has not formed the stable upward trend, economic difficulties may continue for a period of time."

　　EconomistWu Jinglian:

The outbreak of conflict with critical accumulation

"The problems of the economic transformation of heavy and not an accidental phenomenon, butIs the contradiction between the critical accumulated outbreak at. At present, the most prominent is the two issues: the economic transformation is not balanced, not harmonious, sustainable and corruption. At the end of 2011, several importantEmerging industriesThe outbreak of the crisis are. If the continuous government dominated economy, cost is too high."

EconomistZhou Qiren:

Currency "ebb tide" debt crisis will erupt

"When the market is not HERSHEY'S, government control of the central bank to the market to put money by increasing mobility makes it a little more confidence for the future. The whole world asset boom common background is the currency issue to promote, excess money. Although it can deal with a period of depression, but will cause assets' water level 'high,' truth ', once the debt crisis will erupt."

EconomistZhang Weiying:

A new round of stimulus is not desirable

"If in 2008, 2009, don't be so intense stimulation, China investment not so fast, will be a lot better today conditions. Now a month to cut interest rates two times, trying to stimulate, if we began a new round of stimulus now, large-scale investment in the future economy, Chinese is disastrous."

　　EconomistXu Xiaonian:

It is difficult to reverse the economic gradually downward trend

"In the economic downturn, when growth in structural adjustment is a repeat of 2009, is a kind of quench a thirst with poison behavior, the effect is very limited, but the GDP structural imbalance short-term deterioration. Whether the second half to take what kind of policy, twisting the economy gradually down trend will not."

EconomistLang Xianping:

Exports and domestic demand are "clouds"

"What on what Chinese economic growth? We have to face a cold reality, that is both export and domestic demand is the 'cloud',The rapid growth Chinese economy rely on only one way, is frenzied investment in fixed assets. And a new round of economic stimulus is likely to fall into a Japanese style China depression. Unaware of the crisis is approaching, a nation will pay the price for this arrogant ignorance."

　　Private economistsLiu JunLuo:

We are living in the middle of the Great Recession

"The world economy has entered a recession, we are living in the middle of the great recession,And the depression period is: large area, large area people dissipate one's fortune dangerous people jump off building, large area unemployment and the Asian regional war. The economy is all follow the prescribed order operation, economic trend is very difficult to change, can escape this' a hell on earth 'economic catastrophe, see you good luck."

　　Former Vice Minister of Ministry of CommerceWei Jianguo:

The economic downturn the longest possible lasts 5 to 8 years

"Today the whole China face what kind of challenge. My analysis is three 'high', 2012 political economy is undergoing great changes and major unrest, adjustment, the situation. The situation in 2012, overall, I think that since the 2008 financial crisis, the most difficult to predict the most complex, the most severe, the most difficult year. Now when we really need to deal with the financial crisis, the economic downturn the longest possible to continue 5~8 years."

EconomistMao Yushi:

The European debt crisis on Chinese advantages

1 how to look at the impact of the global economic crisis on China?

This will certainly be affected, investment and trade and the world economy China close, but Chinese in foreign exchange control, the renminbi is not freely convertible, the equivalent of a (resist foreign economic crisis) firewall. Hot money can not come in, domestic capital is not free flight. China and the world economy is the most closely related to trade and investment. The foreign economy is not good, demand reduction, our exports to reduce.

The development of the European debt crisis is hard to say, Greek political transition, Germany also expressed their willingness to provide assistance, now the future is not so clear. If the situation deteriorates, since the EU is Chinese important trade partners, would be affected, but also is not necessarily a bad thing, because our exports too much, need to increase imports, we why not so much foreign exchange reserves to increase imports? Chinese caused the global economic imbalance of great. Imbalance of three trillion and three hundred billion foreign exchange reserves is large.

To reduce export, increase the import of each other is good. Good macroeconomic on Chinese, but on the micro economy is not necessarily a good thing, because the export industry transfer capacity, the future is a cost.

2 how do you think of Chinese buyers in Europe and America market hunters?

China money to European and American hunters housing, I think is an opportunity. Problem or foreign exchange control, the RMB to buy foreign assets is not easy. With the enterprise purchase is also a problem, the enterprise must want to obtain the foreign exchange required approval. Countries should open up foreign investment. The direction of the future is sure to open the free convertibility of the RMB, into hard currency. But the pace is very slow. With the convertible degree increase, the possibility of RMB appreciation larger. Outlet pressure will be greater, but also good, we went to foreign investment opportunities increase, so that the foreign exchange demand increase, in turn, the appreciation of the renminbi to buffer.

　　A well-known blogger:

Property speculation will mostly be looted

Some European countries such as Greece and Spain's property market crash occurred, this situation will appear in Chinese?

China later, worse than Greece and spain. The housing bubble will be broken. According to my calculation, Chinese GDP growth if less than 8%, that is to say, if it is reduced to 7.5%, it will affect 10000000 people in employment, if continue to enlarge the housing bubble, can solve the employment of 10000000 people, but, this time to borrow money to buy a house, people will be more miserable, because they fear prices rise again, not in their song pay to borrow money to buy the case. The consequences of the housing bubble, late breaking worse than.

Now many media reports China overall prices rise, how do you think?

　The rebound was short-lived, it won't last long. The situation in India we have seen, GDP from 9.4% growth dropped sharply to 5.3%. China next year there may be 7% growth, may the year after will suddenly dropped to between 4.5% to 5%, that will create 35000000 to 40000000 jobs, of which, including about 15000000 white-collar workers. Your job would also buy what the housing?This is not the way. This is the housing bubble consequences.

How to buy a house Chinese global hunters? That will not repeat the mistakes of Japan?

　　Economic problems China than Japan was serious,Japan was not wealthy immigrants, no cultural and moral problems in the modern China appear. The national spirit of Japan still very strong.

Finance and investment direction Chinese over the next few years in where?

Because of inflation, leading to the RMB asset price boom, has been separated from the international level. A little economic sense knows, even to make an international call, the other said: you first turn off the mobile phone, I call you, my phone is much cheaper than you.This shows that, the renminbi assets are revalued. Hold the property would be very tragic. Our own house, not what not, change. I speak of prospect.

We can from the economic crisis which rational thinking? If you need to Chinese may affect their own crisis prepared for what?

The China social phenomena, is in the bubble burst before the state. The wealth of people finally protection China is in industry, they are the creators of social wealth. Property speculation will mostly be looted.

　Armed with these four points, against the Great Depression

A national economic problems, often have their roots from the cultural habits, also is the common people daily life work way. The European "pigs", lazy, and not a pillar industry do shake Qian Shu, an accident sooner or later; Wall Street greed, often in the river walk which not can wet shoes? Both the Greeks in the hard landing anger and confusion, or Japanese zero growth in twenty years of persistence and helpless, have to Chinese a big lesson for dealing with the recession.

China almost all of the financial product mode and concept, learning from foreign countries. This led us to the "copy" to the financial idea, if we just continue, whether they become tomorrow?

　Thrift is not extravagant: strengthen saving, control debt

"After we joined the euro zone, national spirit has already changed. The Greeks left the original residence on the island and rural, moved to the city, they have become sick, began to expect loans and brochures." A Greek people look at their own country, "Modern Greek national spirit, is the debt ridden American consumerism fake version."

In this crisis, the Greeks began to realize that the "consumer debt" great harm to bring their own. This advanced product by now the financial out of manufacturing, has spread to every state.

Thrifty is the traditional Chinese, Taoist ideas, even the "simple" as the spiritual treasure. But now, like deposits, thrift is the generation that habit. A generation of young people are more consumer debt temptation to try to stop but cannot. Due to credit card spending in an awkward situation is not a few, and the financial status of many loans to buy a house after the extremely unhealthy case.

Like the high debt ratio of the company bankrupt, high debt households, not economic turmoil.

The Greeks did not deposit. Greece has 11000000 people, the total deposits of about 180000000000 euros, equivalent to 128000 yuan per person. Chinese 1300000000 people by the end of 2011, the balance of savings deposits of residents was 35.2 yuan, an average of only 27000 yuan deposits, even with these deposits belong to 690000000 urban population, per capita deposits only 51000 yuan, less than the half (Japanese family savings gold worth more than $21, equivalent to 1040000 yuan per person).

A recent report published by Southwestern University of Finance and Economics showed: maximum 10% China income families, the savings rate of 60.6%, the savings accounts for 74.9% of total savings. A large number of low-income household spending is greater than or equal to income, with little or no savings.

Since the Greek crisis broke out, many people even deposit run out, living in the streets, relief food to eat. How, Chinese if the Greek crisis, a large number of enterprises closed layoffs, every month has large mortgage Judai China family, can support how long do not go bankrupt? 20 years ago, Japan and Hongkong speculation of those people, the injury has not recovered completely bankrupt.

Many people dare to consumption in advance, because they believe that, by virtue of their own hard work, the future can get better income. But after 20 years of economic stagnation, the Japanese, tell us the facts, when the economic environment is not good, personal effort, revenue will not increase.

　Prevention: they rely on bubble robbers plundered the wealth

Your home into a robber?

Your answer Is it right? "No"?In fact, to America led, represented by the Wall Street bandits, always hiding in your house, your wealth inadvertently slipped into their pockets.

In the global currency over time USA dollar, as well as its "maid" Wall Street, through to the global dollar, deeply involved in almost every industry and raw material market, they play the world economic fluctuation baton, can stir every market, whether the bubble blowing, or economic oppression. AmericanFuturesThe market, decided to most global commodity prices; the rating agencies USA, can determine the global each bond ratings and rating of financial institutions; American government on the issue of the exchange rate pressure may be applied to every country.

In the seemingly "justice" in the background, the market price fluctuations, "normal" profits have into their pockets. Of course, this is a zero sum game, Greece fell, Goldman made; Japan enterprise decline, America business to make money.

Ten years ago, the Greek fraud in Goldman's chief of staff, fraudulently to join the European Union, also blew a big bubble in greece. Now, the bubble burst, the European economy and many industry suffered devastating destruction, many industry is America win the.

Twenty years ago the Japanese real estate industry, become America economic warfare, the exchange rate war attack point, making the Japanese government in inflation austerity, by a massive amount of money the big blow of the bursting of the housing bubble, Tokyo prices fall to 1/6 of the original.

Up to now, many Japanese from the heart of vigilance and refused to get, because of the historical experience has told them: virtually overnight after disillusion, will bring endless grief and pain. The so-called rich, is also the bubble.

Too many facts prove, USA Wall Street set off another wave of wave of economic shocks, swallowed a large number of global wealth, is the largest makers of the global economy, but also the global financial the biggest enemy.

Fortunately, the banker is not invisible, we can understand his by right of this global trend of core indicators, to know in advance the recovery degree and the formation of the bubble economy.

　　Don't do retail: fried equity is non mainstream

More than 30 years ago,Gao Xiqing,Wang BomingSeveral Chinese warm blooded youth, work hard in American Wall Street hard work, then the stock market this high-risk investment products back to the domestic stock market, established China. Since then, many people raised the passions, grief at separation and joy in union.

The 2008 stock market crash, the proportion of stock market in Chinese financial life continues to decline, the more is the large amount of money from the stock market, but many investors still expect the stock market to become his shaking Qian Shu.

Don't complain stocks failed to bring them wealth appreciation, only America and Chinese this world like stocks of state.

China securities market is just a copycat version of America stock market. Americans can make money buying stocks, because his world economic dominance, and American mature institutional investors, individual investors on the stock long-term holding. Chinese stock by what? Is the industry is cattle, transparent information, or retail investment level is very high?

Germany, France, Japan, these economies, not a country who love stock.

Data shows, Germany the number of investors accounted for only 7.1% of the total population, the French direct shares held by the family does not exceed 5% , turnover of individual Japanese investors are less than 10% on the Tokyo Stock exchange. And America stock proportion reaches as high as 25%, China to urban population, the proportion is as high as 20%.

The Germans have been in a rational, calm is known, the Germans in the investment will avoid the risk as the primary consideration. The German Stock Exchange also tried to attract people interested in investing in stocks, but the stock market crash led to the technology bubble in 2000 after, all stocks boom ended in defeat. The French are similar, their finances generally includes savings, real estate investment, insurance and fund etc..

Also experienced the stock market crash of Japanese, although the stock market return, but individual Japanese investors still dare not act rashly and blindly. Foreign investors poured into the Tokyo stock market's main. Even American, after the 1929 "black Tuesday" and the 1987 "black Monday" Americans, for stock state of mind is calm, generally have a common heart, also won't buy the stock as a life event.

In Chinese economy faced with domestic trouble and foreign invasion, and the stock market internal problems unsolved case, do not leave the stock market, retail, for non professional investors most, is a wise move.

　Education: no end for the industrious

In the economic situation is not good, to rely on "money" financial difficulty, more people will rely on professional income.

Workplace income depends on two factors, one is the industry and the company's ability to make money, one is their ability to work.

Once let the Italians proud fashion industry (textile, clothing, leather shoes, leather), from 2008 to 2010, the entire industry sales fell into three or four, bankruptcy and closure and as many as 1900 enterprises, unemployment increased significantly. And not about the China textile industry took many jobs in Italy enterprises, light is Spain's ZARA and Japan's already respectively, make the business owners to become the country's richest man. Our country high technology, abundant funds, industry control capability is strong, you will have to work on the back of my ass. Profit is natural for me to take big, with your head.

Of industrial countries the gap, in the fierce competition in the industry, the fight is the innovation of industry chain, technology, management ability, which put forward higher requirements on the quality of people.

　　Looking back Chinese once brilliant industry, iron and steel smelting, heavy industry manufacturingWenzhou, the lighter, manufacturing industries in the Pearl River Delta, Shenzhen copycat mobile phone factory, these are either profit margins fell sharply, or die out. Industry in transition, as a people, are passive victims become the industry transformation, or become the industry changes of beach goers, during this gap is huge.

Over the years, one industry may appear prosperity or decline, wanted to have a decent life in economic turmoil, will only be a dead end. Continuous learning, network culture, career training, foreign language training and so on, will become the main theme of the workplace.

As a China finally said, would keep the fortune is in industry, they are the creators of social wealth.

15 key indicators of changes in the world economy

The confidence index

· Italy ten year bond yields: a maximum of 7%

· Spanish ten year bond yields: a maximum of 7%

· America ten year bond yields: less than 3%

· VIX fear index: capable of correction in the up and down 50

· the gold price: pay attention to the non rational prices

Prosperity index

· America Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index cannot be less than 50

· the eurozone Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' index cannot be less than 50

· China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index cannot be less than 50

· American third quarter GDP growth rate of decline: not

· China third quarter GDP growth rate: not less than 8.5%

· China CPI annual growth rate: can be reduced to below 6%

Demand index

·: international oil prices above $90 a barrel

· CRB commodity index: stop down dip

The Baltic Dry Index BDI: return to the more than 1500 points

· USA: unemployment fell below 8% (end)